Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 12/8

Top Pick Stats: 348/1013 (-$377.40)

Best Bets: 43/91 ($1.70); Spot Plays: 18/91 (-$57.90)

Best Bet: CRYPTO HANOVER (Race 5)

Spot Play: STOVID (Race 9)

Early Pick-5: 3,6,8/8/1,3/3,6,7/5 $3.60

Late Pick-5: 1,2,7/6,9/5/6,7/4,5,8 $7.20

Race 1: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $35,000 (OS $55,750) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(6) DUSTY LANE LEVI gets the call on the class and form edge, coming off a sharp first-over win last week where he grinded down the leader and still finished off strong. J-Mac sticks. (3) STRONGMAN HANOVER looks like the main danger, as he has been holding his own in the Harvest Series against tougher company. He was a solid third and was only beaten by two lengths just four starts ago. (8) BUNKHOUSE BOSS is a usable third choice with some upside. His recent improvement and likely forward trip for McNair make him a threat to land a share behind the two more accomplished rivals.

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Race 2: CLAIMING HANDICAP $18,000 TO $24,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(8) WICKED EXPRESS gets the edge in a deep claiming handicap thanks to his razor-sharp current form, having dominated similar 20k claimers multiple times this fall, including a confident wire job last week. (5) LETS GET ROCKED is as consistent as they come at this level and is a major player tonight, finishing first or second in 15 races this year. His tactical speed makes him a natural fit for this handicap assignment. (6) PHONE NINE ONE ONE has been living in the exotics at this level all month, repeatedly finishing close and putting himself in positions to succeed.

Race 3: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) ELLICE ISLAND has been steadily improving and comes into this off his best effort yet, nearly wiring the field on Nov. 24 before getting collared late. Drawing the rail should allow Ratchford to place him in the perfect spot. (3) BANKS A MILLION was a sharp runner-up to Hobnob Hanover last out, finishing with good trot once she got to the outside. If she can remain consistent on the bigger track, she should have a chance to get a big piece. (4) STORMONT MY BOY is lightly raced but trending the right way. He has shown a little bit more ability in his last two races. He looms as a threat to grab a share at a price.

Race 4: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER OPT. CLM. $60,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(6) P L ROBERT G spoiled his chances last week with an early break in stride. I’ll give him another shot off the strength of his win two starts ago. He should be forwardly placed. (7) ULTRA MYLES is consistent but lacks the strength to close out races. His recent efforts show that he can continue to race well. (3) THE GREEN BOOK has been racing okay at this level, and usually shows more ability around the big track. She will likely be outsprinted off the car, but can kick home well and get a piece.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME.

(5) CRYPTO HANOVER is rounding into winning form and now picks up the leading driver on the grounds. She will definitely be overbet tonight, but she is hard to look past. (6) TROPHY WIFE is a filly who often finishes with some burst, and her recent lines show that she can be a factor if she is put in play. (9) FATEFUL was a sharp winner three starts ago, but needs to stay out of her own way. She will need to work out a trip from this outside draw as well.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $37,600) LIFETIME OR N/A $1,325 PS IN 2024-25. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(1) CENTURY LEXUS got a perfect tightener last week from post eight. Her form was very good at Rideau prior to that effort. Look for J-Mac to get more out of her. (2) COLD CREEK ESPERO has been facing slightly tougher fields and brings strong late-race velocity that pairs perfectly with her driver. She was a sharp winner last week. (7) P L SUZIE must overcome the outside post, but her last two races show big closing kick that could see her pass many horses late.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER OPT. CLM. $60,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(6) ROXIE HART found her spot last week and was able to hold off all rivals after a front-end mission. We weren’t too used to seeing that from her, but the connections have seen that a more aggressive approach pays dividends. (9) CASTEL LINDY makes his Mohawk debut for a sharp barn that should have him ready to roll right away. He can overcome the wide draw. (7) SUNDAY SHOES could be sneaky here, especially if he is able to land up close and potentially sit a pocket trip. He has enough speed on both ends of the mile to make that happen, and gets reunited with Doug McNair who tends to get a lot out of him.

Race 8: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) PUSH TO START was a very sharp second last week from post nine. The post relief should push him over the edge, and assuming he doesn’t get parked the mile, he should be tough to beat. (1) RESOLVED ISSUES should get an okay trip in here from the rail. He has been improving enough to make him a factor, even if it seems like it will be a “best of the rest” type of showing. (2) GREEN GRASS GROWS makes his debut after a solid morning prep that saw him rebound from an early break in stride. I wouldn’t anticipate him to be used too early, but he can get a piece.

Race 9: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $26,500) LIFETIME.

(7) STOVID is likely to be sent down the road by McNair tonight. If he is able to hold onto that early position, he looms as a major threat to take this field all the way. (6) FLORIDA GUY finally got the job done last week, and all it took was a drop from the Harvest Series. This is a tougher bunch that he could get picked off by if he is also forward. (8) GOAL DIGGER has found his form as of late, but might take more air on the outside than he wants to. I think he will need a big effort to win again.

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Race 10: NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR $4,150 LAST 8 STARTS. (W/O $7,500 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $700 P/S IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS.

(8) CRUISE HANOVER drops to the bottom level after fading badly when sitting close to the pace at Flamboro. I would expect him to show more when returning to the bigger oval at Mohawk. An aggressive steer from Plante could steal this. (4) BUDDYVILLE has been racing fine against similar groups and has some punch that could allow him to land on the ticket if things open up the right way. (5) BRONX DRIFTER had reason to tire after setting swift fractions when shipping in from Truro. Much of the money should find him again. He is a horse that I wouldn’t want to get beat by in multi-leg wagers.

Race 11: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $35,000 (OS $55,750) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(5) MOVING ON OVER was involved in a hot pace last week and also had reason to tire. He races off the claim and picks up leading driver James Macdonald. He is a logical threat to rebound. (1) CRAZIN PARTY BOY draws the rail after showing consistent on-the-board finishes. He has shown the ability to control a race or sit a perfect pocket trip. Either scenario makes him a strong contender. (6) CONNOR B has been in strong recent form with multiple top finishes in recent weeks. He could be a threat to trip out, but has been the bridesmaid too often. Proceed with caution.