Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 12/27

Meet Stats: 422 - 1220 / $2,220.90 (-$219.10)

Best Bets: 61 - 110 / $212.70 (-$7.30)

Spot Plays: 30 - 112 / $201.30 (-$22.70)

Best Bet: SPORTS REPORT (9TH)

Spot Play: BELIEVE IN BRIAN (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,9/2,6/8,9/7,8,10/1,5,7,8 = $19.20

Late Pick 5: 3,6,7/2,7,8/4/8/2,7 = $3.60

Early Pick 4: 7,8,10/1,5,7,8/3,6,7/2 = $36

Late Pick 4: 8/2,7/2,6,7/3,4,6,7 = $24

Race 1: 2YO NW1 or $7,000 LT AE: 3YO N/A $860/Start LT **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) BORN A REBEL wins this if he stays flat and replicates his second last mile; top call. (9) BELECHICK hinted at having some ability in his two-start stint at Flamboro and he is an interesting price option for the early Pick 5; using. (7) MACHALKO picks up Sorrie who has been driving well since getting more business at this track. This colt figures to take a share tonight. 0 for 39 (2) FLASH TOTHE FINISH picks up the leading driver tonight but that likely won't be enough; small share predicted. 2

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Race 2: Pop Up Event 2nd Leg

(2) GUINESS PANIC looked good winning the first leg last week and he is perfectly slotted to get another good trip racing on the lead or in the pocket; call to repeat. (6) MACHDAVID continues to flash home every week but he is at the mercy of the pace and he is likely at a disadvantage again tonight. He is an Exacta factor, however. (5) CORTEZ THE KILLER has that one 1:52 2/5 Pop Up win four races back staring at you from the program but he hasn't done much since. I suppose he has upset potential, but he is unpredictable. I'll use him underneath. Veteran (7) CHAMPAGNE PHIL should be good for another slice here.

Race 3: NW $9,600 L5 or $18,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(8) BUCK DANCER didn’t get the greatest trip last week, now he gets Jamieson in the bike. Maybe the third time off the layoff will be the charm; top call. (9) ITSTIMETOGOHOME reversed his form on the class drop last week and recorded a nice front end win. He should be dangerous right back tonight. (1) O NARUTAC PERFETTO has the class to take at least a share vs. these; using underneath. (4) GLOBETROTTING steps back up after dominating easier here last week. I prefer to use her underneath in this spot.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Mohawk Park card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 4: Claiming Pop Up Event Final - Pick 4

(7) BELIEVE IN BRIAN was claimed for this Pop Up final by a barn that has clicked in 4 of 12 tries racing first off the claim this year and he gets top call based on that angle. (10) KINCAID SEELSTER took a shuffle behind a stopper last week and he could provide some value for multi-race tickets here starting from the widest post; using. (8) THE SHINING raced tough last week and prevailed, now he picks up Macdonald and he is another contender in a race that has many. I'm not sure what to do with (1) JUST PLAIN NEEDY who dropped several seconds and just jogged last week. I don't love the rail post for him and he will likely be overbet, so I will probably play to beat him.

Race 5: NW $18,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: NW1 in 2021

(5) SPARTAN GENERAL is one of the sharpest horses on the grounds and a winner of four of his last seven starts. I have a feeling there will still be some value found with him tonight and he gets the nod. (7) ALL WRAPPED UP is an obvious threat dropping from the top class and he will be on my multi-race tickets. (8) LOCATELLI was probably underdriven last week, now he gets J Mac in the bike, but won't he get overbet now? Your call. (1) ONLY FOR JUSTICE is capable at this level but based on recent efforts, I'll use him on the bottom.

Race 6: Claiming Pop Up Event Consolation - Pick 5

(6) BLUE MONK and (3) FINKLE IS EINHORN finished together in a show photo in the fastest race last week. I'll give the nod to the former here based on his stronger win record this year. (7) SHIFTING VIEWS is one that Macdonald can likely move up; price look. (5) LITTLE WILLY raced well to take a share last week and he is in the exotics mix here.

Race 7: NW $6,500 L5 or $13,000 L10

(2) PHEONIX was brave racing in a strong wind last week to hold on and he gets the call to repeat off that effort. (8) AUSSIE LOVER continues to race well and he was right there last week with the choice. He should be a threat again. (7) FLY BEYOND gets a slightly better post here and he has upset potential vs. these. Consider him for multi-race tickets. (4) FREE WILLY HANOVER qualified okay for this return race. He should get a share tonight.

Race 8: PREFERRED

(4) PERFETTO is just too good for these right now and I can't see any reason to try to beat him. (5) ONEY HALL likely gets another good trip and completes a chalky Exacta. (1) ROYALTY DEAL made up lots of ground to take 3rd to the two choices last week. He could split them if he gets a more alert start. (7) HEY LIVVY is obviously capable on her best but she seems best used underneath at the moment.

Race 9: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $20,000 - Pick 4

(8) SPORTS REPORT paced a huge mile last week. He was a victim of pace, and he was sent widest earlier than normal on the turn and despite losing ground, he paced a 26-flat kicker and he kept coming. He should win tonight if he gets a reasonable trip. (4) ODDS ON CARAMEL paced a nice back 1/2 in his return and he can be an Exacta factor tonight. (5) SIP OF BOURBON wisely was asked to grab a big lead before he hit the headwind in the stretch last week and that strategy worked. He faces tougher here and I'll use him underneath. (7) P L OCTAVIOUS looked good beating easier and he is in the exotics mix here.

Race 10: Pop Up Event 2nd Leg

(7) LEGAL BETTOR raced well off the claim but he was uncovered for a long way. Maybe he blasts for position tonight and turns the tables on (2) AREUKIDINME CABBIE, who wired the field last week and is the obvious one to beat. (5) DEVILS PEAK looked dangerous last week then hung a little. He can take a share here. (1) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS should get another following trip and finish in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

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Race 11: Pop Up Event 2nd Leg

(2) PLAY JET RAY set a strong pace and jogged in the opening leg of this series and he should be tough to beat as a big chalk here. (7) SARATOGA BLUE CHIP was 2nd to the choice but no threat last week and he likely completes the Exacta again. (6) MERCENARY got a brutal trip but stayed game last week. He can take a slice here if he works out a better journey. (3) NO BETTER JOY closed for 3rd behind the choice last week and he should be part of the exotics again.

Race 12: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $20,000 LT

(7) MERITO HANOVER raced first up trying to chase down a loose leader in NW3 company last time now he drops back to NW2; top call. (3) TEXAS MIKI is a better fit here and he is likely to be a speed threat tonight; using. (6) CHUCKY HANOVER wasn't far behind the choice and he merits a look for the exotics tonight. (4) DR JOE is capable of a good effort when he stays flat and he could offer a square price here. I'll use him underneath. (1) SAULSBROOK GENESIS steps up off a loss but he is developing a nice late kick and he should be part of the High-5.