Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 12/22

Top Pick Stats: 380/1096 (-$417.70)

Best Bets: 48/98 ($9.30); Spot Plays: 20/98 (-$48.20)

Best Bet: AMBITIOUS MIND (Race 11)

Spot Play: CHECK MASTER (Race 6)

Early Pick-5: 1,7/1,9/1,8/1,8/1,2 $6.40

Middle Pick-5: 2,7/4,8/2,4/2,3/1,2 $6.40

Late Pick-5: 2,4/2,3/1,2/1,3/3,9 $6.40

Race 1: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $23,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $130,000 LIFETIME.

(1) DEVILS ARCH looks best on paper when drawing the rail and staying in a spot where his recent Mohawk miles fit extremely well. He’s been racing against similar, and has shown the ability to close into solid fractions. (7) GHOSTLY CASPER can be dangerous late, as he’s been consistently competitive at this level. If the pace heats up at all, he’s the one who can capitalize late. (5) ROYALTY BEER brings class relief and tactical speed. His ability to sit mid-pack and grind makes him a solid board horse if he stays trotting cleanly.

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Race 2: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) STORMONT FULLALIFE has a major edge drawing inside with a record that suggests he’s ready to take advantage of a softer group. He’s shown early speed and can control a race when asked. (9) TIE GAME was a transportation scratch last week after a strong second place finish. He should be put in play early if he is ready to go. (4) KINNDER ICECUBE is more of a price play but has quietly been racing better than it looks on paper. He is capable of grabbing a slice.

Race 3: NW $6,100 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $15,500 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $22,500 LAST 8 STARTS N/E) AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: N/A $2,450 P/S IN 2025.

(8) PASSARINO bottomed out the field last week and should be looking to do so again from a wider draw. McNair sticks and should be aggressive again. (1) WILLOWTIME is a reliable option in this group, drawing the rail after facing tougher and consistently trotting strong back halves. Travis Henry is unlikely to overthink this spot, and Willowtime should either control the tempo or sit the perfect trip from the inside. (2) STONEBRIDGE BOMBER owns sharp recent form and fits well class-wise; If he can stay close enough early and sprint late, that will make him a serious win threat again.

Race 4: CLAIMING HANDICAP $18,000 TO $24,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(8) CODE CRACKER was a sharp winner on the front end last week. I can see him leaving out again and repeating. (1) EXOTIC SAND gets a major edge from the rail and comes into this spot in sharp form against similar claimers. He’s been able to sprint off cover or control races when placed aggressively. (4) SMOKESTACK has been consistent and always seems to give a solid effort regardless of trip; Another forwardly placed journey puts him right in the thick of things late.

Race 5: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $36,000) LIFETIME.

(1) FATEFUL has been one of the most reliable trotters in the group, although that doesn’t say much, and he won’t have to be pushed as hard from the rail. He’s been facing comparable competition, and has shown decent progression. (2) STOVID has tactical speed and consistency working in his favor, and Doug McNair is always dangerous in these trotting events, especially when he can secure a clean, inside trip. (4) GREEN MONSTER offers upside at a price; his recent miles suggest improvement, and if he continues to put it together gait-wise, he’s capable of landing on the ticket or even threatening the top two with the right setup.

Race 6: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(2) CHECK MASTER showed sharp late interest last week. A step forward from a better post could see him right in the mix at the wire. (7) RESOLVED ISSUES has been competitive and draws a post that should allow him to float out and find position, but he needs to mind his manners. (9) CHESTNUTT CHEWIE is a price play but has enough late kick to grab a share if the pace collapses. That’s likely the only chance he has from the high draw.

Race 7: HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $8,000 FOR NW $7,250 LAST 4 STARTS. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(4) MACH IMPACT gets the nod on the big drop in class. He should be an early speed type who can take advantage if others hesitate early; Davis should have him in position to protect and potentially wire the field. (8) LYONS NIGHT HAWK is slowly but surely working his way back into form. He was a step short in the lane last week, but that made sense considering it was only his fifth start of the year. (6) ID IMAGINE is reliable at this class and benefits from a familiar driver. Thiessen should have him forwardly placed, and his ability to grind through the final quarter makes him a major threat if the pace is honest.

Race 8: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $85,500 LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER OPT. CLM. $60,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(2) CHIC CHOC ROSE is ultra-consistent and fits perfectly at this level, especially with James Macdonald aboard. Last week’s win was her 10th of the season. (4) READY FOR LANDING stands out on class and draws well. He’s shown the ability to control races if he can mind his manners. (1) WISDOM HANOVER benefits from the rail and can be much closer early than his odds suggest; He can be a value player underneath.

Race 9: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $36,000) LIFETIME.

(3) FRENCH VODKA has the cleanest recent lines in the field and continues to show steady development against similar company. Another patient, well-timed move should put him in prime striking position late. (2) MUSCLE SPASM brings upside and early speed to the table, and Mark Etsell should have options through the first half, making him dangerous if he gets a setup. The driver will cause his price to float up. (7) DAFFY HANOVER has been extremely consistent as of late and should be forwardly placed again. He is a must use on tickets with how he has been racing.

Race 10: NW $6,100 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $15,500 LAST 8 STARTS (W/O $22,500 LAST 8 STARTS N/E) AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: N/A $2,450 P/S IN 2025.

(1) SPARTAN GENERAL is a horse that makes you scratch your head from week to week, but this drop in class really should give him a big chance. He is reliable when it comes to passing horses, it’s just a question of where he is at the top of the stretch. (2) DJIMON has raced well at this track over the last couple of seasons and owns enough tactical speed to protect position from the inside posts if he can stay flat. (5) CLASSIC MAGIC is the horse who could add some value to the exotics. J-Mac sticks after a strong second against this level last time.

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Race 11: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $60,000 (OS $76,000) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: N/A $685 P/S IN 2025.

(3) AMBITIOUS MIND makes a ton of sense again this week after his odds on win. He has enough early speed to stay involved and enough finish to capitalize late, making him the one to beat. (1) WICKED EXPRESS draws inside and fits very well on class. He faded last week after being pressured a little too much from post eight. (4) WELL SAID CELEB brings consistency and versatility. He can race from just about any position, and if he works a trip off of a helmet, he can get a piece.

Race 12: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $85,500 LIFETIME. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER OPT. CLM. $60,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(9) MANOAH was a sharp second as the lukewarm favorite last week. I can’t get past his gate speed, which should make him a very logical contender despite the wide draw. (3) JAYPORT CASH continues to improve with each start, when he stays flat, and draws a favorable post to stay close early. (2) SUPERSONIC HANOVER has some back class and enough early speed to get into a stalking position. He could be weaving through traffic late to get a piece.