Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 12/16

Top Pick Stats: 621 - 1928 / $3,345.70 (-$510.30)

Best Bets: 91 - 177 / $290.00 (-$64.00)

Spot Plays: 41 - 173 / $352.00 (+$6.00)

Best Bet: SOUTHSIDE EDDY (10TH)

Spot Play: THONG CONTROL (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 4,5/1,2,4,8,9/1,8/2,5,9/10 = $12

Late Pick 5: 1,6,7/4,9/3,7,9/1,6/4,6 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 2,5,9/10/1,6,7/4,9 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 3,7,9/1,6/4,6/2,7,9,10 = $9.60

Race 1: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS (W/O $12,500 LAST 10 STARTS N/E). AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,200 PER START IN 2024 **$75,000 Pick 5**

(5) LETS GO JUDE popped and stopped now he drops back down to a level where he should be the boss on the front end. I’ll give him the nod over invader (4) ALWAYS A WAY, who is worth a look making his first start out of the Merner barn. (6) NIGHTIME DANCER is better than he has shown recently. Perhaps he can take a share starting from the best post this time. (10) RILKOFF is capable of passing a few of these and landing in the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 2: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $13,750 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $25,000

(8) MACALLAN raced well vs. tougher after missing three weeks and he gets a slight nod in a wide-open race. (1) BUCK DANCER hasn’t raced since June, but he adds Lasix here and I like that he had two qualifiers prepping for this comeback race; price look. (2) CHULO should be better here on the class drop and Drury will likely put him into play at the outset. He is another possibility for the Pick 5 in a race full of options. (9) PIKACHU HANOVER is another dropper that could pop up with an improved effort here.

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Race 3: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS (W/O $12,500 LAST 10 STARTS N/E). AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,200 PER START IN 2024

(8) THONG CONTROL kicked in 27 4/5 in two straight starts and he will likely get a slowing late pace to close into in this race; top call. (1) MR IBIZA N hasn’t raced this low since he arrived on this circuit in January. He notched some wins against much better than these and he could wake up in this spot; using. (7) DAY TRADER had no shot chasing Southside Eddy last week. He fits better here, and he should be in the exotics mix. (6) INSTANTANEOUS should get a piece of this on the class drop.

Race 4: 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $21,800) LIFETIME - Pick 4

(5) SMOKIN HOT DUDE took a lot of action last week and he ended up going too fast, too soon. He can win here with a more even trip. (9) WICKED PRINCE will likely get more aggressive in this second start back off a short rest. He might be able to bridge the gap on the choice; using. (2) WICKED JOULES, winner of three of his last four at Flamboro, attracts the leading driver here and he is another in with a shot in a spot where he may trip out. (10) LUCKY DANCER is on a good roll and driver Borth has been hot recently, but from out there, a small share is likely for him tonight.

Race 5: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000

(10) B STONEY was aggressive in a race where the early leaders were all tired and got passed by deep closers. He should offer a good price starting from the widest post and he gets the nod to rebound. (3) JADENSMAGICSTEEL was also up on the pace in that race, and he finished ahead of the choice. He is in with a decent chance here. (5) DOUBLE DOWN DUKE roared down the far outside to nail the winded leaders, aided by the slowing late pace. He isn’t out of this, but I think he gets overbet tonight. (7) TANGO SEELSTER is racing well but he moves into a low percentage barn racing off the claim; using underneath.

Race 6: NW $15,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000 - Pick 5

(6) ALL GAS NO BRAKES got claimed in two straight and he draws best here. I’ll give him a slight nod in a competitive field. (2) PERFETTO raced better last week now he draws inside. He is worth using at what should be a square price. (1) BELLA CAVALLA is having a great season, and she should be in the mix again here racing off the Fellows claim. Her versatility is an asset leaving from the tricky rail post. (3) HANDSOME SEBASTIAN is 2 for 2 with Macdonald driving, but his recent form is uninspiring. I’ll play to beat him as the morning line favorite.

Race 7: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $40,000. ALOWANCES FOR AGE

(4) MANHAWK and (9) ULYSSES finished a nose apart last time and they will likely be the main contenders again. The former gets the nod based on post position. (5) BET ON SUNSHINE raced well in defeat at this level but he has now missed a month. A small share is likely for him here. (7) SAULSBROOK TSUNAMI closed well from last now he gets an improved post. He could better this placing if he gets a good trip.

Race 8: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $12,750 LAST 10 STARTS. (W/O $17,250 LAST 10 STARTS N/E) - Pick 4

(9) HOWYOUPLAY THEGAME wheels back quickly for Team Cullen after jogging at Flamboro on Wednesday night and he can double up vs. this group; top call. (7) SELF MADE is in easier here and he will likely get sent forward leaving the gate tonight. He could provide some value for multi-race tickets. (3) CONTROL HEAVEN will likely wake up on the class drop here, but I won’t take a short price considering his recent form. (8) DR JOE, 2nd to a blowout winner last time, likely closes from the back for another share tonight.

Race 9: PREFERRED

(1) SAFE CONDUCT was bet like he couldn’t lose last time, and he was driven the same way to prevail; call to repeat. (6) AMIGO VOLO followed the choice home for 2nd, and he looks like the only real threat in here. (2) NEW RULES should work out a good following trip and take a slice in this short field. (4) QUEBEC HANOVER shot up the inside late to take the win last week, but this is tougher; small share predicted.

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Race 10: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 4 STARTS

(4) SOUTHSIDE EDDY crushed some overmatched foes last week and off that strong winning mile he gets the call to repeat here. (6) HESINCONTROL closed well in a good field last week and he should get a solid pace to chase here; using. (2) CODE CRACKER steps up off a likely win, but he is sharp, and he could get a great trip following close to the front. He isn’t out of this. (1) WOODMERE ROLLNPOP should get a good trip racing close to the front and land in the exotics.

Race 11: CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 TO $16,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000

(10) MACH IMPACT is one of two claimed horses that Macdonald had his choice of. He landed here and so will I. (7) FROWNIES MIRACLE had the freshest legs in the final 1/4 last week and he roared past the tired leaders. He draws better now, and he is an obvious threat to repeat. (9) LETS GET ROCKED was part of an early pace that collapsed last week. He should offer a good price racing off the claim, and he is worth a look for the late Pick 4. (2) HES SWIFT can get a much better trip here starting from a better post. He is in the exotics mix. (8) BIG BULLY is around the money most weeks racing at this level. He can take another slice here.