Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 11/4

Top Pick Stats: 566 - 1675 / $3,114.40 (-$235.60)

Best Bets: 79 - 153 / $249.60 (-$56.40)

Spot Plays: 37 - 150 / $332.10 (+$32.10)

Best Bet: LINDYS IRISHCREAM (1ST)

Spot Play: FUNNY BUSINESS (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 5,8/4,7/4,6,8/1,3,7/6,7 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 3,6/7,9,10/1,4/1,5/1,3,5 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 1,3,7/6,7/3,6/7,9,10 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 7,9,10/1,4/1,5/1,3,5 = $7.20

Race 1: NW $22,500 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: N/A $1,615 (F&M $1,875) P/S IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NW $28,550 IN '24 MIN 10 STARTS. AE: NW $8,100 L10 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(8) LINDYS IRISHCREAM is in peak form, and she was a strong winner at this level last week. She looks good to repeat here. (5) CLASSIC MAGIC improved with Henry in the bike and was 2nd to the choice. She should be the main threat here. (3) VILLEFRANCHE AS doesn’t win often, but she has finished third in exactly 1/3 of her 39 starts this year. She is a good one to use underneath. (2) NORTHERN CHARLOTTE is another infrequent winner that will likely be in the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 2: WINNERS OF 3 (FM 4) BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 (FM 7) OR $80,000 (OS $100,000) LIFETIME

(7) MASSTERCRAFT will take beating here coming off a lifetime best performance when beating similar; call to repeat. (4) COLD SNAPS has hinted at a return to her best form with recent efforts and she is the other one that I’ll use in the early Pick 5. (6) MASS HYSTERIA fits better here, and she should be in the exotics mix, likely being driven more aggressively in this spot. (2) MUSICAL RIDE disappointed as chalk last week. A small share is likely for him in this spot.

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Race 3: CLAIMING HANDICAP $14,000 TO $18,000

(8) BIG BULLY was a predictable winner last week when claimed and he stands a decent chance of repeating tonight racing out of the Merner barn. (4) LETS GET PICKLED raced decently in defeat at Flamboro last Wednesday now he attracts the leading driver; using. (6) LETS GET ROCKED was chalk against the choice and he encountered some traffic in the lane. He could turn the tables here with the right trip. (1) DIRTY LIL PIGLET raced much better when finishing 2nd to the choice and he should be part of the exotics again.

Race 4: NW $9,700 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $22,750 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000 - Pick 4

(7) WALKONTHEMOON jogged last time he raced this low, and he will probably get an aggressive Cullen steer tonight; top call. (3) BELLA CAVALLA couldn’t be any sharper and she rarely gets bet. She could add some value to late multi-race tickets. (1) FORBIDDEN TRADE surely needed a start; the $64,000 question is: will he need another? I would let price be my guide here. (5) MUSCLE FASHION was perfectly driven to win last week at a ridiculously overlaid price. He is in tougher tonight, and I’ll use him underneath.

Race 5: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $900 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000

(6) SOUTHWIND DOMINO raced better last week now he moves from the rail to the best post, and he gets Roy in the bike. This is a spot where he should capitalize. (7) MACALLAN is another that improved and he is likely rounding into his best form now. He should be a threat here. (3) BBC SPORTSBOY gets Macdonald tonight and I can see him being part of the Tri if he stays flat. (10) COLLECTOR S was good last week but he draws worst now, and a small share is likely his ceiling here.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES: FINAL: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2024 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2024 - Pick 5

(3) OCEANVIEW RUMOURS was predictably stymied by her second tier post last week and she draws perfectly here for the final; top call. (6) STORMONT BEAUTIFUL produced a huge late kick to win impressively last week. She should be the main threat starting from the best post. (7) DEBRA had no answer for Stormont Beautiful last week and she likely takes another share here. (5) BRIGHT GREEN should get a better trip here and land in the exotics.

Race 7: HARVEST SERIES: FINAL: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2024 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2024 - Pick 4

This stakes series final looks like a race that will have some action up front early and (10) FUNNY BUSINESS might be the one that makes the last move from the outer flow. I’ll take a price shot with her getting McNair back tonight. (9) PROMISING MOMENT raced well again last week only to get picked off by the pocket sitter. Perhaps she slowed it down too much in the third 1/4. She should be a big threat again. (7) MY HAPPY PLACE raced well in defeat last week and she is another that is worth using at a price. (3) OUTTATHISWORLD DEO got a perfect trip last week that is unlikely to be repeated here. I’ll use her on the bottom.

Race 8: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS. AE: NW $5,950 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: N/A $810 P/S IN 2023 OR 2024 (MIN 5 STARTS)

(4) HEAD OF THE CLASS gets post relief and Macdonald in the bike tonight; call to upset. (1) PATRIARCH HANOVER, drops, and he is an obvious contender, but shows a stale date. I have mixed feelings here, but his best race probably crushes these. (7) CHULO was game in defeat last week losing narrowly to the pocket sitter. He should be in the exotics mix right back. (2) DERF HANOVER should sit a trip racing near the front and land in the exotics.

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Race 9: NW $25,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: 4 YEAR OLDS

(1) NEW RULES looked good winning racing first up last week and his price should be decent here stepping up to face tougher; slight nod. (5) QUEBEC HANOVER can’t go with Amigo Volo, but he can go a long way on the engine vs. these; using. (3) LOOKS LIKE MONI was a winner at this level two starts back but it’s unlikely that he will get the same trip that he did that night with Quebec Hanover in here. I’ll use him underneath. (4) PEMBERTON has been finishing on the edges frequently and he probably takes another small slice here.

Race 10: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000

(1) FROWNIES MIRACLE fires home every week and there appears to be enough gate speed lined up to his right to provide the set up he requires. He needs some racing luck, but his price should justify the risk. (3) JADENSMAGICSTEEL is on a roll, and he is likely the one to beat here despite having missed a week; using. (5) TANGO SEELSTER produced a big closing effort last week, but he is 0 for 28 this year. I’d demand a price here. (9) TREACHEROUS TOM likely fires to the front leaving the gate and sticks around for a slice again. (7) DR JOE should pass some rivals late and make it into the bottom of the exotics.