Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 11/25

Top Pick Stats: 605 - 1803 / $3,317.50 (-$288.50)

Best Bets: 86 - 165 / $272.40 (-$57.60)

Spot Plays: 40 - 162 / $347.30 (+$23.30)

Best Bet: NEEDABANKLOAN (10TH)

Spot Play: DAY TRADER (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,8/4,7,9/1,3,5/2,3,9/4,5 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 3,5,9/5,8/2,6/3,5,9/3,9 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 2,3,9/4,5/3,5,9/5,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 5,8/2,6/3,5,9/3,9 = $4.80

Race 1: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $6,000 LAST 10 STARTS (W/O $12,500 L10 N/E). AE: N/A $1,365 P/S IN 2024. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(8) TWIN B ARCHIE got around and got a needed clean line now he gets to drop to a level where he can get more aggressive. He will likely be tough to beat if he stays flat. (2) ROWLEN has been closing well and one of these times he will get more aggressive, trip out near the front and win. That might be tonight; using. (4) VILLEFRANCHE AS looks good on paper here, but she has taken only one win vs. 21 slices in 42 starts this year. I’ll use her underneath. (7) KENOGAMI COCO moves into Demers barn and ships in from Ottawa in decent form. He can take a share.

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Race 2: CLAIMING HANDICAP $14,000 TO $18,000

(4) BIG BULLY was picked off late by a perfectly tripped-out rival last week. That was a solid effort, just a bit unlucky. I’ll stick with him. (9) HES SWIFT drops and gets McNair and he no doubt will get an aggressive steer. He is the one to beat. (7) DOUBLE DOWN DUKE is interesting because he attracted Macdonald to drive racing off the Auciello claim. He is the third one that I’ll use in the Pick 5. (3) KYLES ART closed well after starting from the worst post last week. He can be closer here.

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Race 3: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,665 P/S IN 2024. AE: NW $28,750 IN 2024. AE: NW 2 RACES IN 2024 (MIN 20 STARTS)

(5) BUCKHEAD RIDGE produced a nice closing effort last week when trying to chase down a loose leader. He faces similar for this third start back and he gets top billing. (1) MYSTIC has faced tougher than these since registering a crushing 1:53 win four starts back. He will likely be a speed threat here and it’s hard to leave him off Pick 5 tickets. (3) WASTINGNOTIME broke when facing tougher last week. He can be a late threat vs. these if he stays trotting. (6) DELCREST BRENT can close for a share at this level.

Race 4: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 4 STARTS - Pick 4

Sophomore (3) WATERFALL closed well in his local debut, and he can be even sharper tonight. I’ll give him a slight nod in a tough race. (2) WARRAWEE XALT has won 17 races in 2023-24 and several of those victories came at this track. He fits well here, and he should be a threat. (9) YANK MY HALO was out a long way last week and he kept coming. He gets saddled with a tough post, but he is capable if he can work out a reasonable trip. (8) CLASSIC MAGIC found room too late last week. He will likely be closing too late again, but he can be in the Tri or Super.

Race 5: NW $3,200 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,150 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NW $3,700 IN 2024

This looks like a field that stout closer (4) RILKOFF can pick off late and he gets the nod. (5) SOUNDS GOOD will surely get an aggressive McNair steer and he will likely be the one to catch. He is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (3) BEACHIN LINDY will likely be passing some horses late and I can see him rounding out the Tri in this spot. (2) PICK A GENRE is capable of better than he showed last week. Consider him for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 6: NW $8,200 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW OF 6 RACES LIFETIME - Pick 5

(3) BELLA CAVALLA has been sharp for several weeks and she got an aggressive steer last week and it paid off. Getting Borth in the bike should mean another aggressive drive is coming; call to repeat. (9) P L RAINBOW DASH failed twice in a row as the chalk now she draws widest. She is worth a look here in a spot where she is sure to offer a much better price. (5) ALL GAS NO BRAKES had a clear run up the inside and couldn’t get alongside the choice, but he gets the leading driver back tonight and that could make the difference. He is another to consider for multi-race tickets. (1) PIKACHU HANOVER will likely pass a few of these late and land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 7: NW $3,200 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,150 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NW $3,700 IN 2024 - Pick 4

(8) DAY TRADER gets a barn change following a private sale, a better post, and the leading driver in the bike. An aggressive steer and a form reversal here would be no surprise; top call. (5) TRION DE VIE shipped in from Ottawa and absolutely crushed a field of claimers. This spot doesn’t look much tougher, and he could repeat; using. (3) HUNTER HILL raced first up against a leader that was never getting caught last time. He can land in the Tri here if he gets a slightly better trip. (1) JOHNSTOWN JET will likely sit and rally like he did in his last start; using underneath.

Race 8: HARVEST SERIES FINAL: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2024 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2024. NO ALLOWANCES

(6) NAUTILUS B raced better, as expected last week, but the favorite rode in her perfect pocket throughout then pounced. Maybe Henry tries to bottom out the field this time. I’ll call her to turn the tables on that rival (2) MA ISABELLE, who is the obvious one to beat. (1) P L RACHEL will probably land in midpack early and land a share. (3) SAULSBROOK CAMI will take some action with Macdonald getting the drive, but I prefer to use her underneath.

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Race 9: NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $27,850 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $135,000 LIFETIME

Assuming (5) CHULO will go forward off the Auciello claim and getting Drury in the bike, I’ll give him the call to upset these. Classy (9) PERFETTO will likely go as an overlay stepping up after getting beat with the leading driver in the bike. There could be some multi-race ticket value here; using. (3) PRINCE OF HONOR is winless this year, but he has raced in stakes or Opens all year long. He gets Lasix and Macdonald, and he should be a threat. (4) JOHNNY BUCKSHOT likely closes late to take another slice in this spot.

Race 10: NW $18,000 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) OR NOT AVERAGING $1,500 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS)

(3) NEEDABANKLOAN was driven with supreme confidence last week, making two early moves to the front then controlling the race from there. He gets the call to repeat coming off that lifetime best effort. (9) HF PANS SHADOW is razor sharp right now and there is a chance that this race sets up for him. I’ll use him on multi-race tickets. (2) MAJOR HILL rode in the choice’s pocket last time and got 2nd. He should get another good following trip here and land in the exotics. (1) TANGO SEELSTER is a good closer that will probably sit and rally for a small slice. (6) BETTOR THAN PRIDE is capable of much better than he showed in his last two starts; price look for the exotics.