Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 11/18

Top Pick Stats: 591 - 1760 / $3,238.50 (-$281.50)

Best Bets: 84 - 161 / $267.60 (-$54.40)

Spot Plays: 40 - 158 / $347.30 (+$31.30)

Best Bet: PERFETTO (3RD)

Spot Play: LETS GO JUDE (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,5/5,6/1/4,5,6/1,3,6 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 5,8,9/2/5,8/6,7/5,8 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 4,5,6/1,3,6/5,8,9/2 = $5.40

Late Pick 4: 5,8/6,7/5,8/3,5 = $3.20

Race 1: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $9,700 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,075 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) PICK A GENRE steps up from a claimer to the bottom conditioned level here but the way he won his last start makes me think he fits okay here, and this isn’t the toughest field; call to repeat. (2) BETTER SUNSET was bet like he couldn’t lose last week, and he would have won if he didn’t have to swerve from the rail to the five-wide path in deep stretch to find clear racetrack. He is the obvious threat. (5) COALITION HANOVER, racing off the Demers claim and picking up the leading driver in the bike, is another contender that is hard to leave off Pick 5 tickets. (1) FOREFATHER got an impossible trip last week. Starting from the rail, I think he sits then rallies late to take a share.

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Race 2: NW $17,500 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $30,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NW $165,000 LIFETIME

(6) QUEBEC HANOVER didn’t do much at the top level last week, but missing a check allows him to drop multiple levels. He gets Macdonald now and he will surely get sent forward leaving the gate; top call. (5) FORBIDDEN TRADE showed he hasn’t forgotten where the wire is last week, and he projects to get another good trip racing close to the front; using. (4) FRANKS ANGEL drops, and he is typically around the money at this level. He should be part of the Tri. (1) SOUTHWIND COORS should be good for a small share at this level.

Race 3: NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW 7 RACES LIFETIME.

(1) PERFETTO drops and he has a good chance to pop vs. this group picking up the leading driver after racing decently vs. better last time. (4) BELLA CAVALLA keeps racing well every week and she took the overland route last week while the winner was scooting up the pylons. She can be an Exacta factor here again. (9) CAPTAIN WANIA returns quicker here, and he is worth a price look for the exotics. (3) CHULO should show speed and stay for a share if he stays flat tonight.

Race 4: CLAIMING HANDICAP $14,000 TO $18,000 - Pick 4

(5) BIG BULLY got used hard early in a race that was full of action and won by a big bomb. He draws much better for this second start off the claim and I’ll give him a slight nod. (6) LETS GET ROCKED finished just ahead of the choice when claimed by Cullen and he should be one of the main contenders here. (4) DOUBLE DOWN DUKE goes for Barrington for the first time which makes him worth a look, but he missed a week. I’d need a price. (10) KYLES ART has been good in conditioned claimers now he is in a claiming handicap and draws worst. A small share is likely for him in this spot.

Race 5: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS

(1) CLASSIC MAGIC passed more than half of the field in the stretch last week in a good effort now he draws better. He can beat these if he lays closer to the front, which he should be able to do. (3) MVPS DAUGHTER got hammered at the windows last week and she produced a strong late kick to get the job done. She has found her best form and she is a threat right back. (6) SOUTHWIND DOMINO beat a decent field two starts back and he drops into a spot where he appears to fit well. He is another to consider for early multi-race tickets. (5) YANK MY HALO has a stale date and he is a bet against for me as the morning line choice.

Race 6: NW $18,000 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) OR NOT AVERAGING $1,605 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) - Pick 5

(5) MAGICAL ARTHUR raced okay last week when you consider that he would have had to pass 11 horses to win the race. Macdonald sticks and post relief could be the key here. I’ll give him the nod in a wide-open race. (8) HESINCONTROL was motoring late last week trying to catch a class dropping winner. He fits well here in a field that seems laden with quick leavers. He could get the setup that he needs; using. (9) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE comes off a fast win for this level and he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win. He is a threat to repeat. (6) BETTOR THAN PRIDE nosed out the choice for 5th last week and he should be in the exotics mix getting out of the second tier tonight.

Race 7: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $9,700 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,075 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS)

(2) LETS GO JUDE had a decent first start back now he gets McNair who drove him to a win in the Snowshoe Series in January; top call. (9) MAJOR HILL raced tough in defeat last week and he should be the main threat here despite drawing widest; using. (6) BOLT POWER comes off a series of races where he drew poorly on the B tracks, now he gets the best post and best driver here. He is in with a shot vs. these. (10) HARRY G is capable of closing from far back to take a share; price look for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 8: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2024 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2024. NO ALLOWANCES. LEG 2 - Pick 4

(8) NAUTILUS B got an impossible parked out trip in her first start back, but she stayed flat after breaking in two straight pari mutuel races. I can see her getting more aggressive in this spot at a good price and she gets top billing. (5) MA ISABELLE was an impressive winner in Leg 1 and she is the obvious one to hold off late here. (6) HOPE N GLORY took some action at the windows last week and she raced well. She should be in the exotics mix here. (9) P L RACHEL couldn’t convert as the chalk now she draws widest. I’ll use her underneath tonight.

Race 9: PREFERRED. HANDICAP (PP 1-5 DRAWN) (PP 6-7 DRAWN)

(6) LOGAN PARK is typically the king of the local castle, and he gets the nod returning from the Breeders Crown. (7) AMIGO VOLO has dominated this class recently and he gets a new test here, but he is the one that the choice will need to fend off. (4) SAFE CONDUCT is in terrific form, but he likely gets another slice here facing the top two choices. (1) FASHION FRENZIE is another solid performer that likely is limited to a slice in this spot.

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Race 10: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000

(5) JADENSMAGICSTEEL had to go too fast, too soon last week to clear to the front starting from the 10-hole now he draws much better. He should be able to get a breather tonight and hold off his main rival (8) B STONEY, who roared home to win last week and has never been better. (3) BROOKDALE MIKI likely rallies for another share behind the top two choices. (2) DR JOE is helped by the smaller field, and he can pass some rivals late to land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 11: NW $4,950 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,270 P/S IN 2024

(5) GIGONDAS drops to a likely spot where McNair will likely send him right down the road. (3) VILLEFRANCHE AS raced tough last week and was only picked off in the final stride. She might be a pocket rocket tonight; using. (6) BUCKHEAD RIDGE’S comeback race vs. better was decent and he should be in the exotics mix tonight of he behaves. (2) MACALLAN made two early moves to the front last week that you can’t see in the program. He can last longer with an easier trip which he should get starting from an inside post. (7) MY HOLY MOLEY likely closes from the back to land on the edges.