Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 11/16

Meet Stats: 319 - 1032/ $1842.00 (-$244.00)
Best Bets: 52 - 92 / $169.60 (-$13.80)
Spot Plays: 16 - 94 / $131.10 (-$55.50)
Best Bet: GOODNIGHT IRENE (9TH)
Spot Play: NOTHING BUT MUSCLE (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 6,8/3,8/1,2,4,10/2,4,9/2,5,10 = $28.80
Late Pick 5: 2,6,8/2,4/2,3,4/4,10/3,5,6 = $21.60
Early Pick 4: 2,4,9/2,5,10/2,6,8/2,4 = $54
Late Pick 4: 2,3/2,3,4/4,10/3,5,6 = $36

Race 1: CLAIMING HANDICAP $8,000 **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(8) WHO SAID NOT TO raced well here last week but he was no match for a sharp winner. I'll give him a slight nod in a wide-open race. (6) MASTER SMILE has been right there every week facing slightly easier at Flamboro and picking up McClure and the best post here won't hurt; using. (10) MONTY MONO rarely misses the board and this isn't the toughest $8K claimer. I'll use him in this Tri. (2) CROCADILE CANYON had no zip when he was tipped to the outside last week on a night when he was claimed. I'll play against him in this spot.

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Race 2: NW $28,500 L5 or $150,000 LT AR: OPT CLM $60,000

(3) ONEY HALL keeps rolling and he should be tough to beat here as he continues his ascent up the class ladder. (8) GRANDMA HEIDI wants the front so the widest post isn't terrible for her because she should clear by the time they hit the 1/4 and she should be a threat here. (4) FREE WILLY HANOVER drops and moves into the Fellows barn. He should be am exotics factor vs. these. (7) ONLY FOR JUSTICE has been closing like a jet in the lane and he should get a piece of this if he stays flat.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Mohawk Park card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 3: NW 4 (F&M5) or $42,000 (F&M $52,000)

(1) KINNDER HIGH CLASS has been taking on and beating all comers at the 1/2 mile track in Three Rivers, Quebec and she fits well here. She will obviously need to drop a few seconds, but she may be up to it. (10) TOCCOA FALLS made a middle move then stalled last week. He has upset possibilities here if he can pick up a live helmet. (2) HEAVENSDOR HANOVER was flying late last time and while he figures prominently on paper, he is still 1 for 39 lifetime so demand a price. (4) SOLSBURY HILL raced better last week and she should be in the exotics mix again.

Race 4: CLAIMING HANDICAP $25,000 to $30,000 - Pick 4

(4) LONE WOLF TERROR has a good partner in Jamieson who handles the quirky pacer well and if he stays flat again, he should be hard to hold off in this spot. (9) CHOREOGRAPHER has been racing over his head for several starts. He could blast and last in this spot; beware. (2) LEGAL BETTOR wasn't far behind the choice last week after starting from the worst post. I can see Henry leaving much quicker with him this time and he should be a threat at a square price. (7) QUAN BLUE CHIP has been in good form for a while and the slightly better post should help here; using underneath.

Race 5: NW $8,000 or NW $16,000 LT AE: OPT CLAIMING $20,000

(2) NOTHING BUT MUSCLE gets major post relief tonight which should mean he will be put into play early. Expect an aggressive McClure steer this time. (10) STORMONT VENTNOR is racing better now than he has in a long time and he can be a threat here at a price. (5) WILD AND CRAZY GUY was right there to the lane last week when dropped to this class. Don’t be surprised if Macdonald looks for the pocket this time; using. (4) TRIX AND STONES got hammered at the windows last week and failed to convert. He looks like a fringe player tonight.

Race 6: CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 to $15,000 - Pick 5

(8) MISTER MAGIC doesn't lose at this level often, but don’t expect much of a price; top call. (6) TIKI TAKA was bet like he couldn't lose last week when coming off two breaks and a so-so qualifier and he didn't disappoint his backers. Tab the tote for clues with this one. (2) JOHNNYS REVENGE was bet early in the wagering cycle last week but he showed little from post 10. With his nose back on the gate here he could be a surprise package. (4) ADVERSITY is always a good one to use on the bottom of the Super and he never gets bet.

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Race 7: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $33,000 LT - Pick 4

(2) MAKE IT COME TRUE raced well again last week but she was simply too far back. From an inside post Hensley should provide a more aggressive drive and she gets the nod. (3) DRAGON ROARS AGAIN had position on the choice and she made a nice stretch move to get the job done. She would be no surprise if she repeated. (4) LYONS LIBERTY is worth a look for the bottom of the Tri starting from an inside post this week. (8) ASSASSINS CREED has been racing tough every week but she may find the top two choices too tough this time; using on the bottom.

Race 8: NW 5 (F&M7) or $75,000 (F&M $87,500)

(3) NIMBUS DEO continues to improve and coming off a new lifetime mark she gets the call to repeat. (2) WINGS OF SPEED was right there in a fast mile and he has got back on track since he stopped having to face the hot Oney Hall; using. (4) DELILAH SEELSTER was first up chasing in a 28 1/5 final 1/4 which was a tough spot. She is a viable threat in this race. (7) ANGRY EYES can rally for another small slice here.

Race 9: F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L9

This race should come down to the big class droppers (4) GOODNIGHT IRENE and (10) LYONS RIVER PRIDE. I'll give the nod to the former who shows a win tow classes higher than this one six starts back and has post position advantage. (7) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE got hammered at the windows on the driver change to McClure but she rallied too late; small share predicted again. (1) SUDDEN PASSING comes off a beatdown of weaker in Pennsylvania and while she has done well here in the past, a small share is likely her ceiling in this field.

Race 10: NW $12,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLAIMING $30,000

(6) COOL MUSCLE took on the tough Grandma Heidi first up last week and he hung in there well, considering. This is an easier assignment and he can break through here. (3) ALL WRAPPED UP was confidently driven last week to a win while first up a long way and he should be in the hunt here right back. (5) SOUTHWIND AVENGER makes his third start out of the Auciello barn and he is in with a decent chance against these starting from a good post. (4) B YOYO and (8) SWEET CHAPTER are both good ones to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.