Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 11/11

Top Pick Stats: 578 - 1716 / $3,170.70 (-$261.30)

Best Bets: 81 - 157 / $258.80 (-$55.20)

Spot Plays: 38 - 154 / $337.30 (+$29.30)

Best Bet: AMIGO VOLO (9TH)

Spot Play: LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE (5TH)

Early Pick 5: 6,7,8/3,7/2,3,6,7/3,6/2 = $9.60

Late Pick 5: 7,8,9/3,8,9/2,10/1/4,5,6,8 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 3,6/2/7,8,9/3,8,9 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 2,10/1/4,5,6,8/2,6,7,8,10 = $8

Race 1: NW $2,500 LAST 5 OR NW $8,000 LAST 10 STARTS. (W/O $12,500 LAST 10 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $1,125 P/S IN 2024 OR 2023-24. AE: 3&4 YO NW $900 L3 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(8) MAJOR HILL tried for the front last time, and he got hung out. He could do in here if he gets a better trip and he is worth a shot at a price. (7) HOWYOUPLAY THEGAME blew up the tote board last time McNair drove, and he returns to the bike tonight; price look for the Pick 5. (6) TORONTO can be better in his second start back and he is worth a look starting from the best post. (1) MOONWATCHER got a good trip, and he got the job done at this level as the chalk last week. He is capable of repeating but I’m inclined to try to beat him as an underlay starting from the rail.

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Race 2: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2024 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2024. NO ALLOWANCES. LEG 1.

(3) P L RACHEL had a nice closing effort last week which should be a good springboard to first leg of this series. I think Borth gets more aggressive with her tonight and she gets top billing. (7) NAUTILUS takes a massive class drop out of the Gold Superfinal here and she also had a brief rest. She should be one of the main contenders likely racing from close range. (8) KENOGAMI QUEEN brings good form with her from London and interestingly attracts Macdonald; price look for the exotics. (9) MA ISABELLE will likely flash speed and stick around for a share in this spot.

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Race 3: NW $2,500 LAST 5 OR NW $8,000 LAST 10 STARTS. (W/O$12,500 LAST 10 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $1,125 P/S IN 2024 OR 2023-24. (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: 3&4 YO NW $900 L3

(3) RAYS KREDIT catches a suspect field here and he has a good chance to mow them down with his good late kick. (2) DREAMFAIR ARNIE B is risky coming off two breaks, but he should be right there vs. this group if he stays flat. (6) DAY TRADER was picked on top last week here, but he scratched sick. He can be a factor if he is sharp enough; using. (7) SOUTHWIND SAMBUCCA is in easier here and his good gate speed should play in this spot. He is another in with a shot. 3,

Race 4: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS (W/O $17,650 LAST 10 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $1,650 P/S IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NW $29,500 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) - Pick 4

(6) QUICK FIX adds Lasix and draws better, and I’ll take a price shot with him considering those changes. (3) ESPLOSIONE is in easier here, but he has a stale date. He might not need his A race to beat these, though; using. (1) WASTINGNOTIME won two straight closing from way back. I think his win streak comes to an end here, but he closes for a share. (7) VILLEFRANCHE AS likely closes for another slice in here.

Race 5: NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR $12,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,630 P/S IN 2024. AE: NW $1,400 LAST 3 STARTS.

(2) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE drops to a spot where he should get aggressive early and take care of business and he will be a single for me. (5) CODE CRACKER raced a little better on the class drop last week and I can see him being part of the Exacta tonight if he has clear sailing in the stretch. (1) ROCK AND TWIST is another class dropper that should improve tonight, but I prefer to use him underneath. (7) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE is hot right now but this is a much tougher field than he beat last week; small share predicted.

Race 6: NW $17,750 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NW $63,500 IN 2024 - Pick 5

(8) LOOKS LIKE MONI drops to a spot where he can get aggressive early and lead all the way; top call. (7) PATRIARCH HANOVER dropped for a win, but he had missed four weeks then and he can be sharper now. He is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (9) SOUTHWIND COORS dropped and popped and he has beaten better than these more than once in the past. He is another possibility for multi-race tickets. (4) PEMBERTON is in the exotics mix every week and tonight should be no different.

Race 7: NW $8,200 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: STARTERS FOR PURSE OF $11,000 OR LESS LAST START. AE: NW $5,000 IN 2024.

(3) BELLA CAVALLA continues to race well every week at this level, and she will likely get a setup tonight; top call. (8) ALL GAS NO BRAKES was Macdonald’s pick over the top choice, and he will likely be the one to beat if he stays flat tonight; using. (9) TUSCAN PRINCE reeled off three straight at Flamboro and he is worth a look at a price for late multi-race tickets. (6) FORBIDDEN TRADE will likely win one soon, but I’m not sure he’s there yet. I’ll use him underneath here.

Race 8: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000 - Pick 4

This looks like a two-horse race on paper and I think (10) JADENSMAGICSTEEL, who shoots for a fourpeat, will offer the better price of the two so I’ll side with him. (2) B STONEY has been racing great for several weeks and he fits this level perfectly. He will likely be the one to hold off late. (7) TANGO SEELSTER is sharp, and he should take another share here with his typical closing effort. (5) DR JOE draws better, and I can see him sneaking into the bottom of the exotics.

Race 9: PREFERRED

If (1) AMIGO VOLO replicates his winning mile from 10/28, his rivals are racing for 2nd here. (2) NEW RULES has never been better, and he might be the longest shot in this race. Getting him into the Exacta could be the value of the race. (4) FASHION FRENZIE was no match for the choice last time and he likely lands in the top three again. (6) SAFE CONDUCT is racing great and he can better this placing with a decent trip.

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Race 10: WINNERS OF 3 (FM 4) BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 (FM 6) OR $80,000 (OS $100,000) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS OPT. CLM. $80,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE.

(8) P P E produced a big late rally for 2nd last week and I’ll give him the nod in a wide-open race expecting him to offer a good price starting from the widest post. (4) CENTURY JAGUAR surely needed last week’s start after missing 8 1/2 months. He can be a factor tonight at a price; using. (6) P L RAINBOW DASH raced okay to finish 2nd last week, but she was 2 to 5 and she is 1 for 15 this year. I wouldn’t take a short price here. (5) DEVILS ARCH should show speed if he stays flat this time and he can stay for a share.

Race 11: CLAIMING HANDICAP $14,000 TO $18,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

(6) LETS GET ROCKED was bet like he couldn’t lose last week and he the got a great trip and converted. I see him getting a similar trip here and he gets the call to repeat. (10) BIG BULLY was claimed by a high percentage trainer, and he will no doubt get sent hard leaving the gate. He may clear to the front and lead all the way tonight. (2) MR BEAST tried a big move that he couldn’t sustain but that is a hint of improved form and I’ll use him in the late Pick 4. (7) COALITION HANOVER gets Macdonald racing off the Auciello claim and he should be in the mix here. (8) MACH IMPACT likely closes from far back to take another slice.