Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/5

Meet Stats: 253 - 809 / $1448.00 (-$170.00)
Best Bets: 40 - 72 / $132.60 (-$12,40)
Spot Plays: 13 - 74 / $108.50 (-$39.50)
Best Bet: BEST HEAD WEST (8TH)
Spot Play: NIGHT WATCHMAN (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 3,5,6/1/6,9,10/1,2,4,5/2,6,10 = $21.60
Late Pick 5: 6/1,2,6,8/1/2,4,7/3,5,7 = $7.20
Early Pick 4: 1,2,4,5/2,6,10/6/1,2,6,8 = $48
Late Pick 4: 1/2,4,7/3,5,7/2,6,7,8 = $36

Race 1: 4YO and Younger NW1 or $9,000 LT **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) SOLARCTRIC had a solid debut and he fits well here although his odds are almost sure to drop; top call. (5) DAVID LLOYD GEORGE tried the brush 'n crush at Kawartha Downs but a 27 2/5 third 1/4 took its toll. He's in with a shot here. (6) FEAR THE SHADOW draws best and is obviously one of the best in here on paper but what price will you take as he makes his 17th attempt to break his maiden? (7) BIG CITY NEWS was likely going to finish in the money last week, but he was affected by the leader who tried to jump a pylon then went down. Consider this colt when making Tri and Super bets.

Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES

(1) SCARLETT HANOVER was obviously best in the Shes A Great Lady but she interfered with several rivals in the stretch and was set back. I expect an aggressive Hensley steer here. (4) TWIN B SUNKISSED was one of the victims of that interference and she can be right there in this race. (3) VOELZ DELIGHT fits well in this compact group but coming off a bout of sickness I'll use her underneath. (5) BEST KEEPSAKE can rally late for a share here. I'll use her on the bottom of the Tri and Super.

Race 3: 2YO NW1 or $10,000 LT

(9) CIAO BABY HALL's last race was by far the best of any of these and if she stays flat here, she should be tough to beat, even from out there. (10) IMASHARPDEALER was used up early last time when dropping out of the Grassroots and he fits well here. He may look to make a middle move to the front this time; using. (6) JOHNNY PING is a homebred out of a dam that has produced three winners from three that have raced, and this isn't the toughest spot to make his debut. He has upset possibilities. (1) MR WHEELER has improving form and he can rally for another share here.

Race 4: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,000 L8 AE: NW $500 L4 - Pick 4

(2) CARSONS SHADOW got a confidence-building win at Grand River now he gets Jamieson in the bike for the first time; angle play. (1) BIT OF LUCK couldn't seal the deal on a wet tiring track last time. That was a solid effort and he rates highly here. (4) MACHIN A TRICK figures to be closer early this time starting from a better post and that could make all the difference; using. (5) GENERAL JOY is likely to get bet considering he drops again but based on recent form I'd demand a price.

Race 5: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(2) NIGHT WATCHMAN takes a massive class drop here considering the winners of the two most recent races he contested, and I expect an aggressive steer; top call. (6) OUTLAW ACEOFSPADES finished ahead of the choice now he gets Cullen. He is on my multi-race tickets. (10) SPORTS COLUMN also should find it easier here and he is in the exotics mix here. (7) WIND BLOWN's race at Flamboro was decent and I see him closing for a slice here.

Race 6: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10 - Pick 5

(6) ON THE ROPES trotted a big mile on a tiring track now he gets to drop another class level. Beat him to greet the cashier. (8) GRACEFUL was really motoring in the lane last time and if the ace falters late here she could sail past them all. (4) TRIX AND STONES won last time she raced this low and she isn't out of place here; upset chance. (3) WILD AND CRAZY GUY stopped as did many speed horses on the 28th now he drops again. He should last much longer this time.

Race 7: 2YO NW1 or $7,000 LT

(8) P L OLIVER passed some horses late in a crazy-fast mile for a maiden race and he should be able to handle these if he gets a reasonable trip. (2) WHERESJIM was a runaway in the first 1/2 in that race and he set a pace that just could not be maintained. If his manners improve here, he could move up sharply; using. (1) LUCKY BENJI brought $75,000 at Harrisburg and he is worth a look here in a spot that doesn't appear to be that tough for a colt making his debut. (6) SIR SHADOW is from a high-producing dam, his lone qualifier was decent, and he goes for a top barn. He can land in the Super at first asking.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(1) BEST HEAD WEST was a couple of strides of racetrack short of winning the Shes A Great Lady and in this spot, Henry is sure to move her earlier. She should convert as a big chalk. (2) ALUMNI SEELSTER was used up early in the same race and she should get a better trip in this small field; Exacta factor. (4) CITY BY THE BAY should get more aggressive in this spot and she should be on the board vs. these. (6) TROUBLE BREWING had a promising opener now she steps into the fire. She can pass a couple of these in the lane.

Race 9: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

This is a good spot for (2) MUSICAL RHYTHM to get back on track and he gets top call in a race that he should win if he is on his game. (4) MUSCLE FASHION makes his third start over this track and the first two were good; the main danger. (7) SOMBRE has been on fire since being claimed by Cochrane and he should be closing late to take another share. (5) DREAM NATION is in excellent form currently and he is another to consider for the bottom of Tri and Super bets.

Race 10: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,500 L10

(5) AREUKIDDINME CABBIE made several moves contributing to a wicked and unsustainable pace on a tiring wet track yet still almost got the job done last week. He has a good chance vs. these. (7) BRAVE WORLD comes over from Flamboro in good form. The horse that beat him on 9/27 would likely be favored in this race. He's on my multi-race tickets. This is a better spot for (3) RAYS KREDIT and McNair should have him forwardly-placed; upset chance. (2) CAPTAIN TREVOR was favored when dropped to this class, but he didn't get the best trip from post 10. He should make the ticket vs. this group.

Race 11: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(6) PERSEUS SEELSTER has done well in some tough spots in his past two starts. He fits well vs. this group and he gets the nod. (7) LYONS LIBERTY is worth a look on the barn change alone and I'll have him on my late Pick 4 ticket. (8) NOTAWORD N barely avoided disaster when the leader tried to jump a pylon last week. Toss that race. He's a contender here. (2) JUST ROCK HIM goes for Moreau and he is sure to drop a few seconds moving to the bigger track; upset chance. (1) MOXLEY was very good at Flamboro last time but the rail isn't the best post for him I don't think; using on the bottom.