Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/4

Meet Stats: 275 - 797 / $1,519.00 (-$75.00)

Best Bets: 40 - 73 / $143.50 (-$2.50)

Spot Plays: 22 - 74 / $161.00 (+$15.00)

Best Bet: ADARE CASTLE (6TH)

Spot Play: PICTONIAN THUNDER (5TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,6,7,8/1/8,10/4,6,10/3,7,10 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 5/2,3,6/1,4,6/2,4/3,4,9 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 4,6,10/3,7,10/5/2,3,6 = $27

Late Pick 4: 2,4/2,3,9/7,9,10/4,6,10 = $54

Race 1: NW $12,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 or NW 5 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

This is a tough race to kick off the early Pick 5. (4) GP DREAMIN was good last week, but unfortunately for her, the winner was excellent and he was never being caught; slight nod. (7) MEMO is another who was beaten by a rival that trotted a big mile and he figures in here. (8) DREAM NATION drops again and he might look for a helmet to follow tonight which would make him more dangerous; using. (6) O NARUTAC PERFETTO’s sub-28 kicker didn’t get him anywhere last week. His late kick should play better tonight and he is another that is in with a chance.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES

(1) DABRA DAY has the look of a 1 to 5 shot here and she can probably only beat herself in this spot. If she stays flat, I don't see her losing. (5) RESOLVING should improve in this race and if she stays flat, she will likely complete the Exacta. (3) HP FELICITY was a distant third to the choice last time and she is likely in store for more of the same tonight. (6) LILYS LASS' recent form is decent enough to suggest that she can take a slice here.

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Race 3: F&M CLM HDCP $13,000 to $18,000

(10) HALLSGLENSMAVIS won well as expected racing off the Barrington claim and she gets the call to repeat here. (8) TUGGINGONCREDIT lacked room when it counted last week and she had to alter course late. Once she got clear sailing, she ran out of racetrack. She could beat the choice here if she gets a better trip; using. (4) MISS ROCKADALI got the perfect pocket trip and she couldn't reach. I'll use her underneath tonight. (2) KAYLIES REAL can close late to take another small share in this spot.

Race 4: NW $8,500 L5 or $17,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000 - Pick 4

(10) HP ROYAL THEO has burned a lot of money this year will going 0 for 10, but this looks like a spot to me where he should win and post 10 will help keep his price viable; top call. (6) TIMESTORM's good tactical speed will put him in a great striking spot and he is the one to fear here. (4) LIFE IS A FEAST is always closing but positioning is sometimes an issue for him. He’s not impossible in this spot. (5) GOLD EDITION has been racing great on the B tracks and he is worth a look for the exotics tonight.

Race 5: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(3) PICTONIAN THUNDER was in some fast races on the Maritimes and this doesn't look like the toughest spot to make a local debut; top call. (7) SPICEY P was good here two starts back with Filion driving and he returns to the bike tonight; using. (10) TAKE A GAMBLE kicked home nicely last time and he is worth a look for multi-race tickets despite drawing widest. (5) FEAR THE SHADOW raced much better last time. Give him a look for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES - Pick 5

(5) ADARE CASTLE didn’t produce her best race at Flamboro Downs. Back on the big oval, she should get back on track with a win here tonight. (6) MISCHEVIOUS ROSE blew up at the start of the million dollar race and before that also was sub par at Flamboro on the same night the choice raced. She can complete this Exacta if she stays flat. (4) GRACE has hit her best stride recently and she should be a speed presence tonight but I prefer to use her underneath. (1) ROSE RUN XCENTRIC is capable on her best, but I can't back a young trotter who has had recent gait issues starting from the rail post.

Race 7: F&M CLM HDCP $8,000 to $12,000

(3) BLINK AND GONE was cleverly driven to a win by McNair last week. This spot is no tougher and this race should come down to her and (6) WOODMERE ROLLILY again. I'll use both on multi-race tickets. (2) REAR VIEW was claimed by a barn that has a 40% (2 for 5) strike rate so far this year with fresh claims. She could add some value to the exotics on the class rise here. (1) WATT MACHS ME WIN frequently hits the ticket and picking up Henry here won’t hurt. She can take a slice in this spot.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS

Being first up in a 1:52-flat mile wasn't the recipe for success for (6) FASHION FRENZIE as the 4 to 5 chalk in the Canadian Trotting Classic. Expect a more aggressive approach and a much better result tonight. (4) LOGAN PARK hasn't been able to beat the choice recently but getting out of Grand Circuit company makes him an Exacta factor here. (1) LEXUS KODY is a hard trier that has been right there in every Gold start. He has upset potential here. (3) EMOTIONS RICHES goes for a high percentage barn and he's worth using underneath in this spot.

Race 9: NW $24,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $50,000 - Pick 4

(4) THREEFIFTYTWO should be tough in here dropping out of the top class and I expect him to get put into this race earlier; top call. (2) ROYALTY DEAL woke up on the drop last week and he took a new speed badge in that big win. A repeat isn't out of the question here. (1) COOL MUSCLE produced a huge late kick to get up vs. lesser. He will be passing horses in the lane and likely finishing on the edges. (5) MIKEY MASS is on a roll but this is tougher; small share expected.

Race 10: CLM HDCP $22,000 to $30,000

The 29-flat third 1/4 that (9) QUAN BLUE CHIP stole last week might have worked against him because it allowed the first-over challenger to grind his way into the race then chase him down. I'll stick with him here. (3) STATE OF PLAY was game beating the choice and he should be a threat right back. (4) SEA LAIRD is an in-and-outer that has a style that needs a faltering late pace to roll by the leaders. He isn’t impossible here, but he needs a late pace meltdown. (7) LOVEMYROCKINBIRD is in the mix every week and he should be part of the Tri or Super again.

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Race 11: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000

It seems like ages ago that (10) TREASURED TEE was winning in the top class, but, in reality, it's only seven races back. He is 50/50 to leave from this post, but the risk/reward is enough for me to take a swing in a spot where he could be a big overlay. (9) WHITE TIGER took a new life’s mark when winning by a 1/16th of a mile and dominating weaker. That was a soft group that he beat and he could get over bet here, but he is obviously sharp and dangerous. (7) VILLEFRANCHE AS raced well from the worst post and she has upset potential tonight. (6) EXEMPLAR is worth using on the bottom of the exotics racing off the McKibbin claim.

Race 12: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(4) PREMIER JOY A comes off a sharp effort and Plante is sure to give him another aggressive steer. He might go down the road vs. these. (6) MACHDAVID indicated in the final 1/4 last week that he is cycling to his best form and he should be flying late here; using. (10) LEGAL BETTOR has some of the best recent form in here and he is another possibility for the late Pick 4 despite drawing widest. (3) PASSIONATE PRINCE will be passing horses late; using underneath. (5) SNAP TEST is another that figures to finish in the bottom of the High-5.