Woodbine Harness

Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/3

Garnet Barnsdale|Sep 30, 2022

Meet Stats: 539 - 1656 / $2,712.80 (-$599.20)

Best Bets: 81 - 151 / $277.80 (-$24.20)

Spot Plays: 41 - 153 / $277.80 (-$26.20)

Best Bet: RIGHTEOUS RESOLVE (2ND)

Spot Play: HERESTHATMANAGAIN (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 3,6,7,9/7/3,6,9,10/4,5,6,9/1,9 = $25.60

Late Pick 5: 2,4/1,2,5/4,6/1,5,7/4,6 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 4,5,6,9/1,9/2,4/1,2,5 = $48

Late Pick 4: 4,6/1,5,7/4,6/6,7,9,10 = $48

Race 1: NW $6,500 L5 or $8,000 L8 or NW5 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(6) DEALIN WITH DEWEY won well vs. similar two starts back then he was forced to face much better last week. He has a good chance to get back on track here facing easier. (7) KAMERAN HANOVER was hard-used in a big mile two starts back then given an easier trip last week. He should be more aggressive here; using. (3) ALL WRAPPED UP drops and he seems obvious at this level but he tends to be trip dependent at all classes. What price will you take? (9) SAYLOR should pass some of these in the back ½ and take a share.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD Fifth Leg 2YO Fillies

(7) RIGHTEOUS RESOLVE is too good for these and she should have no problem winning her sixth straight win here; enough said. (2) WINOOSKI looked good flying late for 2nd last week and she can be an Exacta factor here. (1) MASS HYSTERIA is 2 for 6 but both wins came in Gold races. She is in the exotics mix here. (4) CARDIO MUSCLE is sharp and not out of place moving into Golds. She can be part of the Tri or Super.

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Race 3: CLM HDCP $15,000 to $20,000

Wide-open race here. I'll take a stab with (3) LYONS IMAGE who gets the leading driver racing off the McQueen claim and will likely improve off his recent win in Sarnia. (9) JIM STRIKESITRICH has a good chance to vault past these late in a race where I could see the late pace falling apart; using. (10) TOUGHSONOFABEACH goes for Montini off the claim and that make him worth a look for early multi-race tickets. (6) SNAP TEST moves into a barn that has been winning at close to a 25% clip over the last two seasons and he draws best; price look.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD Fifth Leg 2YO Colts and Geldings - Pick 4

(9) GHOSTLY CASPER is unlucky to have no wins to this point and he fits well in this Gold leg. I'll give him a slight nod over (6) SNOWPIERCER, who gets out of the second tier, draws best, and will likely be pointed to the front leaving the gate. (5) WHAT AN ANGEL took a check in the Mohawk Million and he is another in with a shot here. (4) DWS POINT MAN was the first leader in the Mohawk Million and he predictably faded. He can be better here; using underneath.

Race 5: CLM HDCP $15,000 to $20,000

(9) MILITARY SECRET has excelled since being claimed on 9/15 and he gets the call to repeat in another winnable spot. (1) MODERN ROCK should improve on the class drop tonight. He's the second one that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (7) STATE OF PLAY is in easier on paper, but he is 0 for 27 and I'll play to beat him here. (5) VICIOUS ALOICIOUS should sit a good trip racing near the front and stick around for a share.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD Fifth Leg 2YO Fillies - Pick 5

(4) SWEET DETRMINATION has a 2-2-0 record from 4 Gold starts and she looks solid here as the likely chalk. (2) PRETTY SPECIAL comes off a nice maiden win where she flew late and she should be the main threat tonight. (3) ITS YOUR CHOICE takes a share every race and that streak should continue here. (6) MARGARITA MORNING is capable of taking a share if she stays flat; using underneath.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD Fifth Leg 2YO Colts and Geldings

(1) HASTY BID did well to get a good piece of the Mohawk Million purse and he fits well in this Gold leg; top call. (2) OH LOOK MAGIC had a tough trip in that race and he should be a big threat tonight; using. (5) OSCEOLA is probably best in here but his gait issues makes him risky. Let price be your guide here. (4) DOWEDEALINANDWHY beat the choice on 9/4 but he hasn't raced since. He is a threat but his stale date is concerning; your call.

Race 8: NW $10,000 L5 or $20,500 L10 or NW $2,100 L3 AE: OPT CLM $65,000 - Pick 4

(4) SPARTAN GENERAL was on stride short of winning at this level on 9/19 and he gets top call here off that improved effort. (6) I GOT THE LOOKS steps up off a win that cam close to his lifetime best and he draws the best post. He is sharp and dangerous. (9) AHUNDREDDOLLARBILL is classy but recent form doesn't inspire. I have a hard time taking a short price here. (7) MRMAYOR HANOVER is a productive sophomore who should get a piece here.

Race 9: PREFERRED

(1) HP ROYAL THEO is in good form and he likely gets a setup for his late kick tonight; top call. (7) PEMBERTON is always capable when he stays flat and he could bring a good price tonight; using. (5) COMBS HANOVER gets away from Fashion Frenzie but he loses Gingras. I'd demand a price here, but he is in the mix. (2) WHITE TIGER couldn't be any sharper and he should get a share here.

Race 10: POP UP STARTERS

(4) THE PRINCE swept the Pop Up series and this field is no tougher. A fourpeat at a short price looms. This is a better spot for (6) ANDY OVER. He should wake up and produce a much better effort and he is the other one I'll use on late multi-race tickets. (3) AUSSIE LOVER is in tougher and he loses the leading driver to the choice; small share predicted. (7) COOL CLIFFORD comes off a win against easier and he has a stale date now. He is one I will play to beat out of the Tri here.

Race 11: CLM HDCP $22,000 to $30,000

(7) HERESTHATMANAGAIN draws better and he gets the leading driver tonight; call to upset. (9) JULERICA got cooked early last week but he goes back to Moreau who has already sent him out to win 8 times this year. He's hard to leave out. (10) ROYAL RENEGADE fits well at this level and he will offer a good price starting from out there showing those two mediocre Ottawa lines; using. (6) PARTYINTHESHADOWS was well-driven to take advantage of a destructive early duel last week and he isn't without a chance here but he is unlikely to get the same setup. (8) QUAN BLUE CHIP will likely close for a small share tonight.