Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/28

Top Pick Stats: 550 - 1632 / $2,955.20 (-$308.80)

Best Bets: 79 - 150 / $249.60 (-$50.40)

Spot Plays: 36 - 147 / $329.20 (+$35.20)

Best Bet: PROMISING MOMENT (2ND)

Spot Play: NIGHT DANCER (6TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,7,8,11/5/1,9/1,3/1,2,8 = $9.60

Late Pick 5: 1,6,8/2,3,9/9/3,5/2,3 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 1,3/1,2,8/1,6,8/2,3,9 = $10.80

Late Pick 4: 9/3,5/2,3,8,9/1,6,7 = $4.80

Race 1: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2024 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2024. LEG 2 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) DEBRA finished well ahead of the choice and was virtually unbeatable after getting that soft first 1/2. She is the one to beat here, but she likely won’t get the same trip. (2) STORMONT BEAUTIFUL looked like a winner at the 1/8th pole last week but the leader who got easy fractions just had too much left. She should be right there again starting from a good post. (11) OCEANVIEW RUMOURS was a game and confidently handled winner in the opening leg, but she draws the second tier now which could be the great equalizer. I wouldn’t take a short price here. (8) BRIGHT GREEN made a couple of moves in a decent effort last week and she can crack the exotics at a price here.

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Race 2: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2024 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2024. LEG 2

(5) PROMISING MOMENT crushed and took a new life’s mark in leg 1 and now she comes back on a 7 day cycle. She will be a single for me. (2) WINDSUN CHARLOTTE made a sharp late move to win despite having missed close to a month. She is a top contender here, but the choice holds a tactical advantage. (3) WHISKEY BLUE CHIP is developing a strong late kick, and I can see her closing for a share in this fourth lifetime start. (8) SUGAR PIE HONEY draws widest again but there are two fewer starters to her inside this week. She can be in the exotics mix.

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Race 3: NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,390 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000

(9) QUICK FIX is a different, and much faster, horse racing out of the Demers barn and I’ll stick with him while he is hot. (1) SOUTHWIND DOMINO has been facing a steady diet of tougher company and he should find this group to his liking. He is the one that the choice will need to get past; using. (6) WASTINGNOTIME looked good flying home in 27 2/5 to win but this is tougher; using underneath. (2) EPIC DREAMER should get a better trip tonight and sneak into the exotics.

Race 4: NW $8,000 LAST 5 OR $16,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $9,400 LIFETIME. AE: NW $100 IN 2024 - Pick 4

(3) SOUTHWIND COORS was first up against tougher than he faces here, and he still kicked in 27 3/5. He should be tough to beat in this spot. (1) BELLA CAVALLA was a relentless first up winner last week and she will likely be able to find a helmet in the flow this week. She is an upset possibility. Classy double millionaire and Hambo winner (4) FORBIDDEN TRADE make his eight-year-old debut here after racing only five times at seven. He will have to show me he can still do it. (7) SERENITY CRUISE drops out of the same race as the choice, and I see her closing late to land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 5: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $15,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 4 STARTS. AE: NW $28,750 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS)

This is a good spot for (8) MUSCLE FASHION, and he will likely get an aggressive steer from Drury. I’ll give him the nod over (2) MYSTIC, who was a crushing winner in a new lifetime mark two starts back and is in easier now. (1) MUSICAL RIDE raced better last week, and he had missed five weeks. He is another possibility for multi-race tickets racing from close range. (4) VICTOR INVICTUS dropped and popped but he rarely strings wins together. Facing tougher here, I’ll use him underneath.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2024 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2024. LEG 2 - Pick 5

(6) NIGHT DANCER had designs on the lead last week, but so did two other and she ended up three wide heading into the first turn. She took a tuck, stayed in, then ended up trapped for most of the stretch drive. She should have a big shot here starting from the best post again. (8) FUNNY BUSINESS raced great in defeat and finished ahead of the choice. She keeps McNair and she could add some value to multi-race tickets. (1) ARIELS BET lost the late sprint last week, but she raced well, and she is another contender that could do in here. (4) OCEANSIDE MAGIC was no good on the front end as a big chalk last week. I imagine she reverses tactics here. I’ll play to beat her.

Race 7: NW $17,250 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: $67,250 IN 2024.

(2) FRANKS ANGEL raced well in defeat last week, now he gets McNair with McClure opting for (9) PEMBERTON. I’ll give the former the nod expecting he will get better position and a better trip. The latter trotted a big mile on the rim last time, but he was too far back. I don’t trust that he will be closer early starting from a wide post, but he is obviously capable. (3) NEW RULES is very sharp right now and he is another strong contender that could do with the right trip. (4) PERFETTO drops for this third start back and he will probably be more aggressive in this spot. He can land in the exotics.

Race 8: CLAIMING HANDICAP $14,000 TO $18,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000 - Pick 4

(9) BIG BULLY changes barns, drops, and gets Macdonald; down the road. (3) CROSSCUT gets off the rail and he should be closer early here, then rally late for a good share; Exacta factor. (5) MAJOR ACE should rally late to get a slice in this spot. (2) MR BEAST raced okay in defeat last week and he can land a small share here again.

Race 9: PREFERRED

(5) AMIGO VOLO got the job done as expected last week and he can string wins together when he gets good; call to repeat. (3) FASHION FRENZIE missed last week’s Preferred, and he adds Lasix off a win, but he is obviously capable of repeating vs. these; using. (1) SAFE CONDUCT is sharp, but I don’t love the rail for him here. He likely rallies late for a share. (6) QUEBEC HANOVER will likely show speed again, but this is a tougher field, and he loses Roy; small share predicted.

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Race 10: NW $24,000 IN 2024 (MIN 7 STARTS). AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,675 (F&M $1,875) PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NW $10,500 LAST 10 STARTS

(2) LINDYS IRISHCREAM just missed vs. tougher now she finds a good spot and she should be tough to beat in this spot. (3) TWIN B ARCHIE raced much better last week and Macdonald sticks. He is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (8) CLASSIC MAGIC drops and he should improve enough to land in the exotics here. (9) MACALLAN would be rated higher if he drew better. Starting from out there, he likely lands on the edges.

Race 11: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000

(1) B STONEY was a good 2nd to a repeat winner last time and he is the one to beat here despite drawing the rail. (6) FROWNIES MIRACLE found another tough trip last week so he is hard to trust, but he can beat these if he can work out a decent trip tonight; using. (7) DR JOE is at his sharpest right now and he will be passing rivals late. He is another one to consider for the late Pick 5. (8) BROOKDALE MIKI flew home last week, and he keeps Macdonald tonight, but he is 0 for 28 this year. Is he fool’s gold at this point? (9) TREACHEROUS TOM will likely blast to the front again and stay for another small share.