Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/20

Top Pick Stats: 295/855 (-$307.80)

Best Bets: 39/78 ($13.00); Spot Plays: 16/78 (-$38.40)

Best Bet: GETTHEGREEN (Race 4)

Value Play: AUNT GERTRUDE (Race 6)

Early Pick-5: 8,10/4,6/2,6/3/1,9 $3.20

Middle Pick-5: 2,5/8,10/1,9/1,5/6,9 $6.40

Late Pick-5: 1,9/1,5/6,9/6,8/5,9 $6.40

Race 1: NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000.

(10) NASEY should be tighter coming into tonight considering he hadn’t raced in three weeks before his latest, and was coming off a sick scratch. He raced well and finished a solid third. If he steps forward, I could see him providing a square number on top to kick off the card. (8) MYFRIENDJOSE was closing well down the center of the track, but just missed. I wasn’t sure how he would handle that trip, but he made it work. He will have plenty of options off the car. (1) MUSCLE FASHION came up short in the Pop-Up Final at a short price. This is a slightly tougher group, but he has been in sharp form.

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Race 2: POP UP SERIES FINAL: OS 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES NW $100,000 IN 2025 AS OF OCT 1ST. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000 FOR OS 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES.

(6) MEDLEY SEELSTER has found the right group in this Pop-Up Series and it has sparked her to two straight wins in career-best times. She is the filly to beat. (4) TH MONICA has been visually better since adding Lasix. She has yet to get the job done this year, but is giving herself more opportunities. (5) SHESAMANALISHI was offstride before the start and ended up a pari-mutuel refund. She was a sharp second two starts ago and can contend if she minds her manners.

Race 3: NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS (W/O $8,500 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $730 P/S IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $12,500.

(2) MAGICAL ARTHUR has yet to find the winner’s circle this year, but has the back class and past success at this racetrack. His last three efforts from off the pace have been solid. A drop to the bottom level should give him a strong chance. (9) ABOVEMYPAYGRADE is the logical choice given his recent form, but after a month off, he makes an interesting drop to a lower optional claimer. He has overcome outside posts plenty of times this year, but he looms as a vulnerable favorite. (6) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE stepped forward off the drop and finished a fine third with J-Mac in the bike. He drives again tonight, and is likely to be one of the quickest off the car.

Race 4: POP UP SERIES FINAL: OS 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS NW $100,000 IN 2025 AS OF OCT 1ST. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000 FOR OS 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS.

(3) GETTHEGREEN looked overmatched in last week’s Super Final, but the post didn’t help. They were going for big money in that event, but it could still be seen as a tightener. He gets major post relief tonight and should be put in play. (1) SUNDAY SHOES looks for the sweep of this Pop-Up Series and his fifth win in a row. He is nearing six figures, and makes a lot of sense tonight. (4) PIERRE IN PARIS continues to race well when grinding into contention, and is going to take his fair share of support despite the 0-for-15 record this year. I’ll use him underneath.

Race 5: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2025 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2025. LEG 1.

(9) KOUNTRY CLOVER has been inching closer to another win when racing south of the border, and now will take her shot in the Harvest Series in her first start for the Meg Crone barn. James Macdonald gave her the nod over two others. (1) MY GHOST grinded out the win last week after making a second move to the outside. She just conquered the rail last week and looms as a repeat contender. (4) HP SOPHIA has struggled to string consistent efforts together, but she had an excuse last week when leaving from post nine. I can see her leaving out in the early stages and holding on for a piece.

Race 6: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2025 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2025. LEG 1.

(2) AUNT GERTRUDE had an uneventful career debut, sitting at the back and finishing fifth. She was hard to see on the pan shot in the stretch, but she was clearly moving best of anyone. If she doesn’t get too detached from the leaders, she could pull off an upset. (5) JOSIES JOULES has won three of her four career starts in Alberta, and comes off a sharp qualifying win at Century Mile. Dave Kelly is a name we don’t see much of at Mohawk; she is an interesting option. (3) PLAYSOMETHINGSWEET has been pacing miles that make her an obvious contender. She most recently produced a solid closing effort from off the pace to only lose by four lengths. The post relief should help, too.

Race 7: NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000. AE: N/A $1,010 P/S IN 2025.

(10) WILLYS HOME RUN towers over these horses with her back class. She doesn’t need to bring her best to get the job done, despite the wide draw. (8) SPARKS FLY was just even last week against tougher competition, but didn’t get his kind of trip. I would expect Hensley to give him an aggressive steer off the drop. (6) VILLEFRANCHE AS was a solid third last week after sitting up close. I would expect her to sit a similar trip with J-Mac giving her the nod; she can get a piece.

Race 8: NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $24,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW OF 10 RACES OR $105,000 LIFETIME. AE: MARES.

(1) WHAT ABOUT ELMO drops from Open company where he held his own, but was overmatched against the likes of Gaines Hanover and Amigo Volo. He tends to get aggressive steers when dropping to these upper conditions. I’ll look for a quarter move and a big effort off the drop. (9) QUEBEC HANOVER is another horse dropping from the Open ranks. He picks up Louis Roy tonight, who I expect will put this horse in play from the high draw. (5) DAHLQUIST HANOVER looked on his way to another win, but the huge miles may have caught up to him, as he made a break in stride in the stretch. He’s right back in this week; I’ll look for him to get a piece.

Race 9: HARVEST SERIES: ONTARIO SIRED 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES, NW $30,000 IN 2025 AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH 2025. LEG 1.

(1) ALEKSOVA was left unchallenged for most of the mile, resulting in a final quarter sprint that she came out on top of. I don’t expect her to take much pressure tonight either, which can result in another win. (5) BAYONETTA clearly had something go amiss last week in a stake at Hippodrome 3R. She had strung together six consecutive wins prior to that. I’ll look for her to rebound in her first start at Mohawk and first start for the Eric Nadeau barn. (7) FAVORITISM was beaten from the start when she took back to last. J-Mac gets back in the bike and she adds Lasix. A form reversal would make sense given those two things.

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Race 10: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME.

(6) FIGMENT has shown to have an excellent turn of foot in limited starts, and has been visually very impressive. He drew away with ease last week and will look to do the same tonight against a stronger collection of rivals. (9) TROOPER HANOVER took another step forward with J-Mac in the bike and was moving best of all late. He may have had to settle for second if not for National Tier making a break just before the wire, but I won’t take anything away from him in victory. He has an outside post to work with, but has the ability to get into the race regardless. I won’t give up on (3) IM A PAPI HANOVER who has the gate speed to work himself into a perfect trip. He was outsprinted last week, but is always right there.

Race 11: NW $1,300 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: N/A $795 P/S IN 2024 OR 2025. (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $12,500. AE: NW $18,500 IN 2024-2025.

(6) VICTOR INVICTUS has been one of the most consistent grinders at the lower trotting conditions over the last few years. He still has some speed left in him, and should make use of it tonight when dropping to the bottom level. The same can be said for (8) WALKONTHEMOON, though he isn’t having nearly as good of a season. If he is put in play tonight, I like his chances to encounter a reversal of form. (3) MALONE has finished in the money in over half of his starts this year. He is a must-use on exotics tickets.

Race 12: NW $2,650 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5,650 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000.

(5) HF PANS SHADOW takes a jump in class after two excellent efforts in season-best times. You know he will be activated in the early stages. He is hard to overlook given those last two performances. (9) HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER has more than enough speed to get back to his winning ways, but has been nowhere close in the last few efforts. He will need to be pushed off the car if he wants to work out any kind of trip. (6) LETS GET ROCKED has been the most consistent horse in this field. His win streak was snapped last week, but he continues to race well, and draws well again. He is another horse who is hard not to use.