Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/18

Meet Stats: 303 - 879 / $1,654.90 (-$103.10)
Best Bets: 44 - 80 / $154.00 (-$6.00)
Spot Plays: 24 - 81 / $172.80 (+$12.80)
Best Bet: ANGELONIA (6th)
Spot Play: SERENITY CRUISE (3rd)
Early Pick 5: 2,3,6/2,3/2,3,4/2,3,4,7/3,6 = $28.80
Late Pick 5: 3/7,8,9/3,7/4,10/4,6 = $4.80
Early Pick 4: 2,3,4,7/3,6/3/7,8,9 = $24
Late Pick 4: 4,10/4,6/5,6/4,6,9 = $24
Race 1: HARVEST SERIES First Leg Ont. Sired Fillies **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**
(2) DAY TO PARTY picked a great time to break her maiden, winning the $60K Grassroots final in which she took a mark faster than any of her rivals here have paced. She gets top call. (3) JUST CALL ME SONG has produced two game efforts in a row when she was forced to race first up because she couldn't fish out any cover. She could upset with the right trip here. (6) QUEBECIOISE stole a 59 1/5 middle 1/2 last week and there was no catching her. She is a contender here, but I wonder if she might get overbet. (5) BETTER DOUBLE FLIP shows a Gold line where she took a check and she should be good for a share in here.
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Race 2: HARVEST SERIES First Leg Ont. Sired Fillies
(3) DA ROYAL MIRACLE gets off the 10-hole for this and she should be more aggressive early in this short field. I'll give her the nod over (2) SAUNDRA, who couldn't have been more impressive when winning her debut here last week. (6) GLOBAL NEWS figures to improve in this spot, but I see her finishing behind the top two. (1) MOLISE too a failed attempt at making front last time and she paid the price. She can get a better trip and take a share tonight.
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Race 3: NW $8,500 L5 or $17,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000
(4) SERENITY CRUISE got the clean line that he needed and he finished well. He should have a good shot in here and also offer a good price; top call. (2) PROFOUND PARAGON barely held on as the 2 to 5 choice last week but she fought off challengers that were coming at her from all sides and she should be a big threat again tonight. (3) LIFE IS A FEAST’s good late kick should play well in this race. He's the third one that I'll use on multi-race tickets. (9) MAGICAL WINNER K is likely going to lead most of the way then hang around for a small share.
Race 4: CLM HDCP $22,000 to $30,000 - Pick 4
(7) MACH IMPACT was good last week in a fast race with McNair at the lines for the first time. It appears that driver had choices here and he stuck with this gelding; top call. (3) STATE OF PLAY is razor-sharp as he shoots for three straight wins at this level and starting from a good post. He's hard to leave out. (2) CENTURY GIGALO is another hot horse and he picks up the leading driver with McNair opting for the choice. He is another live option in a good betting race. (4) LEGAL BETTOR improved when he dropped to this level and he is another in with a chance here.
Race 5: NW $19,000 L5 or NW $28,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $50,000
(6) TEDDYS LITTLEANGEL steps back up off a powerful win where she took a new life's mark. She will have class dropper (3) COMBS HANOVER to deal with here but she could be up to it. I'll use both on multi-race tickets. (9) DERF HANOVER is another dropper that should be heard from in this spot but I prefer to use him underneath. (1) REFI was 2nd to the choice last week and he can take another slice here.
Race 6: HARVEST SERIES First Leg Ont. Sired Fillies - Pick 5
(3) ANGELONIA sticks out here after finishing 3rd in the Grassroots final and she should take these fillies right down the road. (2) LADYFLIX brought $56,000 at the yearling sales and she is worth a look on debut in this short field. (1) SILVER DIAMOND should get a good trip racing near the front and take a share. (6) HER GRACE K gets a positive driver change tonight and she should be part of the Tri or Super.
Race 7: F&M CLM HDCP $13,000 to $18,000
(9) HALLSGLENSMAVIS goes to Moreau here shooting for a fourth straight win and she will likely be hard to stop. (7) MISS ROCKADALI should be racing in the choice's pocket again and she should be the danger in the lane; using. (8) KAYLIES REAL raced well when 2nd to the choice with Macdonald driving and he sticks here. She's not out of this. (3) BAYWATCHING should pass some of these late and sneak into the Tri or Super.
Race 8: HARVEST SERIES First Leg Ont. Sired Fillies
(7) MOMENTARILY was locked up as tight as a drum with pace for the entire stretch drive last week in a start that should have her perfectly primed for this stakes series. She should control this race from the outset. (4) RIBBON RIDGE was impossibly too far behind in the Grassroots finals and she still gave it her all. She will be the main danger if there is one. (1) SHADOWY is capable of better. Perhaps Roy will wake her up; using underneath. (3) B MY SUNSHINE should show speed here and stick around for a slice.
Race 9: NW $12,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $35,000 - Pick 4
(4) THREEFIFTYTWO gets McClure back here and he should handle these if he stays flat. (10) TOKYO SEELSTER has upset potential here and I can see McNair blasting with him and trying to lead all the way. (9) HP ROYAL THEO looks good every week but can't seem to get the job done. I'll play to beat him here. (7) HEAVENSDOR HANOVER is worth a look for the exotics on the class drop.
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Race 10: F&M CLM HDCP $8,000 to $12,000
(4) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL is on a roll and there is no reason to think it will stop here facing many that she beat last week but her price will be low again. (6) FURIOSA made some nice late gains on the choice last week and she can be a threat tonight if she gets better position early in the mile. (5) LADY TO WATCH should show speed again and stick around for a share; using underneath. (7) ZARCONIA SEELSTER was good last week vs. the choice but she could get overbet in the exotics off that mile. I'll try to beat her out of the Exacta and Tri.
Race 11: PREFERRED
(5) PERFETTO is king in this top trotting class right now. I'll ride with him while he's hot. (6) ONEY HALL was repelled late by this choice last week but he remains an obvious contender from week-to-week; using. (3) GRANDMA HEIDI was right there with the top two but at this level she is usually better used underneath. (4) COOL MUSCLE is always passing horses late and he can be part of the Tri or Super tonight.
Race 12: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(9) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP paced a 54-flat back 1/2 as the even money choice last week racing one class higher but he could do no better than 4th. He gets to drop to the bottom class here and he should be blasting this time; top call. (6) AREUKIDDINMECABBIE got a rough trip last time now he gets a much better post; price look. (4) RHYTHM IN MOTION is the other class dropper in the field and he should be part of the Tri in here. (2) REVOLT is capable of better than he has been showing recently. Perhaps an inside post will help. (1) SNAP TEST could trip out here and better this placing but I will be using him on the bottom.

