Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/16

Top Pick Stats: 486 - 1440 / $2,571.00 (-$309.00)

Best Bets: 77 - 136 / $265.90 (-$6.10)

Spot Plays: 24 - 138 / $150.20 (-$125.80)

Best Bet: AMIGO VOLO (9TH)

Spot Play: CLEVER CHARACTER (11TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,7/1,3,7/7,8/2,5,6/1,7 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2,5,7/2,8/4,7,9/1/5,8 = $7.20

Early Pick 4: 2,5,6/1,7/2,5,7/2,8 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 4,7,9/1/5,8/1,5,8,9 = $4.80

Race 1: Winners of 4 (F&M5) but not more than 6 (F&M7) or $80,000 LT AE: 3YO 4YO and 5YO CLM $60,000 AE: NW $28,250 in 2023 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) MRMAYOR HANOVER faces easier, and J Mac chose him over streaking (1) OVERKILL HALL. Nod goes to the former, but I'll use both in the Pick 5. (3) FLEURIE showed nothing from post 10 but he draws much better now, and she is capable of landing in the Tri here. (4) SOUTHWIND ONCORE closed for a small slice last time and he can be closer this time starting from a better post; using underneath.

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Race 2: NW $15,000 in 2023

(7) THATLL BE SPORTY is sharp and he finds a good spot here in his seventh start of the year to take his first 2023 win. (1) BETTORBEFLYIN drops and keeps Macdonald, and he figures to be the main danger to the choice; using. (3) REVOLT is 0 for 12 but he is getting closer. He should be in the exotics mix again. (10) KOBRA KAI got a clear shot up the inside late and spun his wheels last week. I can see him closing late for a small slice tonight.

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Race 3: 3YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 AE: 3YO 4YO and 5YO OPT CLM $50,000

(8) PRETTY SPECIAL got on a roll at the end of the sires stakes season and this is a good spot for her to keep her winning streak alive; top call. (7) PROUD TO BE LINDY was just 2nd in a tougher class and she is the one to fear here. (5) ANCIENT WALL got going too late last time. He should be in the mix here, but he may find the top two choices too tough. (3) FRENCHY HANOVER should get position early again and stick around for a share.

Race 4: NW $5,300 L5 - Pick 4

(6) HERVEY HANOVER draws best racing off the Auciello claim, and he should go much better here; top call. (2) P L OCTAVIUS raced well on the class drop but he couldn’t hold off the chalk. He is in with a decent shot here. (5) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE gets needed post relief, and he is another that should be heard from tonight; using. (9) INSTANTANEOUS would be rated higher if he drew better. Starting from out there likely limits him to a small share.

Race 5: NW $14,000 L5 or $36,550 L8 AE: OPT CLM $65,000

(7) TRUFFLES TOO takes a big drop here and he won two straight in this class three and four starts back. He is strictly the one to beat. (1) PIKACHU HANOVER, an easy winner vs. similar last week, should get a good trip racing near the front tonight. He should be the main threat. (3) DREAM NATION is classy but he makes his first start of the year, and he will likely be driven conservatively coming off a 12 1/2-month break. (2) FREE WILLY HANOVER is a consistent closer that should be good for a share vs. these.

Race 6: NW $9,100 L5 or $18,500 L10 - Pick 5

(2) GIGONDAS adds Lasix tonight and I like his chances vs. these starting from an inside post from where he can control the pace from the outset. (5) WARRAWEE YANG gets needed class relief tonight, but he has missed four weeks now, so I'd be careful to not take a short price. (7) MIDNIGHT MIRACLE is another dropper that figures to be better in this spot. He is another to consider for multi-race tickets. (10) DONATOVER will likely be limited to a small slice starting from out there.

Race 7: NW $1,500 L3

(2) ACAPULCO SUNBURN raced better last week now he draws better. Macdonald, who won five here on Thursday night, sticks. (9) TORONTO unwisely engaged in a destructive mid-race duel last week and he lost both the battle and the war. He drops to the bottom now and is an obvious threat, but what price will you take? (3) THATLL BE TIGER was first up in a fast mile last week and that was a tough spot to be in. I can see him getting a share here. (6) GOOD AND SWEET should get position early here and stick around for a share.

Race 8: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 AE: 3YO 4YO and 5YO OPT CLM $50,000 - Pick 4

(4) WARRAWEE XALT is in easier here and this is a spot where he should be able to carry his speed farther. He will be tough to beat if he gets a breather. (9) BUSY MAKING MONI impressed last week, trotting a 27 2/5 kicker to get the job done. He is a threat right back despite drawing widest. (7) DEVILS ARCH was better last week, and he should be in the exotics mix in this third start back. (5) NORTHERN CHARLOTTE should get position leaving the gate tonight. She can stick around for a slice.

Race 9: PREFERRED

(1) AMIGO VOLO was several lengths clear in 2nd last year and perhaps he just needs to see Logan Park not lined up on the gate to break through. (6) FASHION FRENZIE is another that figures to battle for the win here with Logan Park not in here; using. (4) PEMBERTON should be in the hunt here if he stays flat, but I prefer to use him underneath. (5) WHITE TIGER tries hard every week, and he can take another share here.

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Race 10: CLM HDCP $17,000 to $22,000

(8) VIPER drops and he should get send forward leaving the gate vs. these. A glance at his second start back shows what he is capable of when spotted correctly and driven aggressively. (5) MACH IMPACT took control of the race using a sub-28 third 1/4 brush last week then he slammed the door shut. He rates highly here. (6) THEDOGINTHEFIGHT is in solid form, and he figures to get another slice here starting from the best post. (9) MILITARY SECRET raced better before being claimed three starts back; using underneath.

Race 11: CLM HDCP $12,000 to $16,000

(1) CLEVER CHARACTER had no shot from post 10 in a 1:52 mile racing off the claim. I can see him improving sharply here; price play. (8) MACH ART IN MOTION gets Macdonald here racing off the claim and he will likely be more aggressive early in the mile; using. (9) MACHIN A TRICK will likely be looking to pass them all in this spot starting from a wide post. He is capable, but I wouldn't take a short price because he may not get the flow he needs. (5) U F BETTORS HANOVER raced well first up last week when 2nd to a dominant winner. He is in with an upset chance here. (2) HAPUNA BEACH has taken checks at huge odds in his last two starts. Consider using him on the bottom of the exotics.