Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/14

Top Pick Stats: 528 - 1556 / $2,838.40 (-$273.60)

Best Bets: 75 - 143 / $234.10 (-$54.90)

Spot Plays: 34 - 140 / $319.30 (+$39.30)

Best Bet: QUICK FIX (2ND)

Spot Play: NASEY (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,4,10/6/2,7,8,10/3,8,9/2,5,10 = $28.80

Late Pick 5: 3,6/1,4/4,6,10/1,4,8/5,6 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 3,8,9/2,5,10/3,6/1,4 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 1,4/4,6,10/1,4,8/5,6 = $7.20

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $58,500 LIFETIME **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(3) P P E finished well in his first start back, now he draws much better; price play to kick off the early Pick 5. (2) BRONZER has improved his overall speed recently and he beat similar last week. He should be right there again tonight; using. (10) OH BROTHER is an interesting newcomer who has a good record this year and qualified well for this local debut; price look for the Pick 5. (4) FLIGHT LANDING faced much better in his past two starts and he obviously fits better here, but I wonder if he will get over bet. I won’t take a short price here.

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Race 2: NW $18,000 (F&M $22,500) IN 2024 (MIN 8 STARTS). AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,500 (F&M $1,875) PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS)

(6) QUICK FIX trotted the fastest mile of his life by more than a full second in his first start for Demers and I am going to take a stand and single him here expecting a more aggressive drive. (5) NORTHERN CHARLOTTE fits well here and she is another that will likely be more aggressively driven tonight; Exacta factor. (3) EPIC DREAMER will likely improve in this second start back and she will probably be looking to sit a trip. She can crack the exotics at a price. (10) VILLEFRANCHE AS would be rated higher if she drew better. From out there, she likely finishes on the edges.

Race 3: NW $18,000 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) OR NOT AVERAGING $1,500 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). BILLINGS AMATEUR SERIES

(10) PICK A GENRE has a lot of angles going for him here: first time Shayne Barrington training, first time Lasix and he has one of the best amateur drivers in this race. I’ll side with him expecting a good price from post 10. (7) BETTOR THAN PRIDE also gets a barn change following a private sale and he adds Lasix. He would be no surprise here. (8) FULL DISCLOSURE comes in off two nice wins at Grand River, and he should be a threat here for veteran amateur Zuccarello; using. (2) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE looks to give driver Clements his first score here and he is one of the best horses in this race. He is in with a decent chance.

Race 4: NW $25,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NW 9 RACES LIFETIME - Pick 4

(3) SAFE CONDUCT is on a roll and Christoforou is driving him with aggression and confidence. This is a tougher field he faces here, but he may be up to it considering how sharp he is; top call. (8) HP MAMA B jogged last time she raced this low, and her speed should carry further vs. these; using. (9) PEMBERTON is another that fits much better at this level and he is hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (7) YO MISTER should be better at this level. I see him closing for a share tonight.

Race 5: CLAIMING HANDICAP $30,000 TO $40,000

(2) KEYSTONE DORAL couldn’t go with (10) HES SWIFT late in the mile last week, but he gets a few factors swinging his way tonight and I think he turns the tables. The latter draws worst and loses Jamieson after taking a new life’s mark at age 7, partly aided by a great trip. I would demand a price here. (5) DR JOE has only one win this year, but he is sharp, and this race could set up for him. He isn’t impossible in this spot. (7) FROWNIES MIRACLE goes for Lester off the claim, and he is worth a look for the exotics.

Race 6: NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $20,750 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NW 8 RACES OR $130,000 LIFETIME - Pick 4

(6) HANDSOME SEBASTIAN got two starts in, and he gets Macdonald in the bike and drops for this third start back. It’s go time. (3) DEALIN WITH DEWEY, winner of two straight in Flamboro’s top class, is sharp and dangerous and he should be the main threat to the choice. (5) MASS HYSTERIA comes off a solid effort vs. similar. He should close for a share in this spot. (9) PIKACHU HANOVER raced well last week but he faces tougher here; using underneath.

Race 7: NW $2,000 LAST 3 STARTS (W/O $9,810 LAST 5 STARTS N/E). AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000. AE: NW $20,750 OR N/A $1,600 P/S IN 2024 - Pick 4

(4) TWIN B ARCHIE makes his second start since a sick scratch, and he gets the leading driver. He can go right down the road in this spot. (1) BBC SPORTSBOY gets first time McNair racing off the claim and he is worth using on late multi-race tickets at a price. (7) FRANK THE ELDER is morning line choice here based on the class drop but his qualifier was unspectacular, and he may need one. I’ll use him on the bottom. (6) MYSTIC raced better last time, and he can close for a slice here.

Race 8: NW $8,800 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $40,000 IN 2024

(10) NASEY switches to Smith’s barn and gets Roy in the bike here. He could take action on the barn change, but he should still offer a decent price starting from the widest post; top call. (6) MUSCLE FASHION raced well first up last week, providing live cover for the winner. He draws best here, and he should be right there with these; using. (4) ESPLOSIONE is another that comes off a decent first up effort and he races better off a helmet. He can win here if he can find live cover. (3) LINDYS IRISHCREAM tripped out to win now she faces better. I’ll use her underneath here.

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Race 9: 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: GRASSROOTS STARTERS

(1) GRAMBLING HALL put it all together to win the Grassroots final and he can double up here if he stays flat. (4) SID THE KID flashed home in 26 and change last week and I could see him scoring the upset here if the choice can’t stay flat; using. (8) SATURDAY has only missed the Exacta in two of 14 starts this year and he is sharp and dangerous. He is another that will be on my Pick 5 ticket. (9) JACK N ABS likely gets limited to a small share starting from the widest post.

Race 10: CLAIMING HANDICAP $14,000 TO $18,000

(6) HERESTHATMANAGAIN drops and gets off the rail, moving to the best post. He should get back on track here. (5) JADENSMAGICSTEEL simply went too fast, too soon last week. He can be much closer here with more careful rating; using. (10) MR BEAST raced well at Flamboro on Wednesday night, but now he draws worst. I’ll use him underneath mainly due to the draw. (1) RAYS KREDIT should be able to pass a few of these late and land in the bottom of the exotics. (3) MAJOR ACE ships north from Buffalo and comes up tagged but this is no easy spot. A small share is likely his ceiling here.