Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Monday 10/12

Meet Stats: 271- 864 / $1568.80 (-$159.20)
Best Bets: 44 - 77 / $141.00 (-$10.60)
Spot Plays: 13 - 79 / $108.50 (-$49.50)
Best Bet: NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP (9TH)
Spot Play: MEMO (5TH)
Early Pick 5: 5,6/4,9/3,4,5/3,4/2,3,4,8 = $19.60
Late Pick 5: 6,8/3,4,8/7,8,9/2/8,10 = $7.20
Early Pick 4: 3,4/2,3,4,8/6,8/3,4,8 = $48
Late Pick 4: 7,8,9/2/8,10/3,8 = $12

Race 1: F&M CLM HDCP $10,000 to $15,000 **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) VINES TO HEAVEN is sent out by the hot Montini barn off the claim and she should be tough in here; top call in the opener. (6) MOCODRA raced well last week but she was simply too far back. She gets key post improvement here and she is in with a shot, (4) MONEYMAKEHERSMILE was under the gun most of the way last time. She should be in the mix again but I prefer to use her underneath. (10) FERN HILL BELLA beat an easier field last week. She is another that I expect to finish in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

Race 2: Two Year Olds

(9) HESOHOT HANOVER looks best in here, and he typically deploys a closing style anyway, so post 9 shouldn't make much of a difference for him. If he is close enough at the 3/4 pole, he will be hard to hold off. (4) JOHNNY PING's debut effort was good and he is likely to show more speed in this spot; using. (1) SOMEWHAT SACY is usually in the mix and she gets McClure for this race. I'll use her underneath in this spot. (3) ON TOP's debut was okay, and if she stays flat this time, he is another who can come on late to take a slice.

Race 3: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,700 L10

(4) AINTNONEBETTOR A shows a race two starts back that would win this and moving off post 9 to the inside gives him every chance; top call. (3) RACEMUP is another that moves off the worst post and he paced his final 3/4 in 1:21 4/5 in his most recent race. Drury sticks and I'll use him in this Pick 5. (5) WIND BLOWN gave it a good shot on the engine last week and was picked off by a fresh rival in the lane. He is another in with a chance here. (6) MC PAT likely reverts to a closing style this week and I see him coming on late for a share.

Race 4: CLM HDCP $25,000 to $30,000 - Pick 4

(4) ALLSTAR SEELSTER was a predictable winner last week racing off the Barrington claim and moving inside now should make him tough to beat as he goes for the repeat. (3) GOLDINTHEBADLANDS is on a serious roll and he will be the one to fend off late. (5) UF BETTORS HANOVER races tough every week. He will likely deploy a closing style again and pass some of these to land in the Tri. (1) TAKE THE DEAL is well-spotted shipping in from Ottawa and he should be in the Super.

Race 5: NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: NW2 in 2019-20; OPT CLM $20,000

(8) MEMO drops to a likely spot and McNair is sure to be blasting with his leaving the gate. He should be tough facing these. (3) CINDY LYNN can be more effective here starting with her nose on the gate and I'll use her on multi-race tickets. (2) MONOPOLY made a nice late charge after starting from post 10 and he should be in the exotics mix this week. (4) SOMBRE can lay a bit closer here starting from an improved post and pass some of these in the back 1/2; using on the bottom.

Race 6: 2YO Fillies NW2 or $30,000 LT - Pick 5

(8) ALWAYS WATCHING was over her head facing Gold fillies last time but she fits well here and a big speed try is likely. (6) RENDEZVOUS parlayed two easy trips into wins then got sick and missed time. She is capable, but I'd demand a price. (1) CONTROL THE THONG has the speed to contend with these if she can stay flat this week; using. (4) SWEET PINK should be good for a share here racing from close range.

Race 7: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(8) WINDSUN AZAR was confidently handled by McClure last week and he wasn't asked for much until very late in the mile when some mild urging was all that was needed. It looks like there could be a lot more under this gelding’s hood and his price should climb here; top call. (4) LYONS LIBERTY was good in his first start here and he returns quicker now. He should be a threat. (3) BETTOR AT HIGHTIDE has 0 wins in 2020 but he has faced some tough ones most of the year. He is in with a shot here. (1) LOUS DELIGHT will get overbet off his recent narrow loss considering he has only one win and one second-place finish in his past 23 starts. He can win, but I’ll play to beat him as an underlay.

Race 8: PREFERRED HANDICAP - Pick 4

(9) P L JILL has shown on more than one occasion that she can handle the outside post and she is the one to beat here. (8) HEY LIVVY is clearly best of these when she behaves and produces her top effort and while that is difficult to predict, she is hard to toss out of the Pick 4. (7) MASS FORTUNE K is racing well and he is likely going to blast and sting his outside rivals early. He wouldn't be a shock in this spot. (2) ONLY FOR JUSTICE is in excellent form right now and he is unlikely to take any action; consider for Tri and Super bets.

Race 9: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,700 L10

(2) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP takes a big class drop here and he should dominate if her is anything close to his best. (9) POINTOMYGRANSON and (8) HERVEY HANOVER both drop one class level but draw poorly. They are still the logical alternatives if you don't trust the choice. (10) THE REGULATOR has improving form and he can pass some of these to make it onto the Super ticket.

Race 10: NW $12,300 L5 or $27,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

(8) MUSCLE FASHION was passed late last week by a horse that would likely be favored in this race. Off that sharp effort he gets the nod here. (10) IM THE MUSCLE is obvious on the big class drop but post 10 might not be ideal. I wouldn't take a short price. (1) DREAM NATION races well for McClure typically and he could add some value to the exotics here. (9) HIGHLAND DYNAMITE won at this level two starts back and she is another that could hit the ticket at a price.

Race 11: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(8) TREMENDOUS PLAY was used up in a ridiculously fast 1/2 last time now he faces easier. He can pop vs. these. (3) BORN OF FIRE is the other class dropper that merits inclusion on Pick 4 tickets in this spot. (5) BEACHIN LINDY also drops on level but he seems more likely to take a slice. (1) PAR INTENDED can sit a nice following trip here and be part of the High-5 at a price. (7) RAYS KREDIT is capable of better and he could produce it with McNair back in the bike.