Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 9/3

Meet Stats: 201 – 576 / $1096.10 (-$52.90)

Best Bets: 28 – 53 / $105.60 (-$0.40)

Spot Plays: 18 – 53 / $141.30 (+$35.30)

Best Bet: SETTN A PRECEDENT (11TH)

Spot Play: ROSE RUN VICTORY (9TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,6/1,3,5/4,5/6,7/5,10 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 3,6/1,4,8/3,5,10/2,6,7/1,4 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 6,7/5,10/3,6/1,4,8 = $24

Late Pick 4: 2,6,7/1,4/1/5,6,9,10 = $24

Race 1: NW $3,600 L5 or $7,000 L10 **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(6) GREYSTONE NATALI O takes a sizable drop and she draws well. McNair will no doubt be looking to send her down the road tonight. (2) ESPRIT DEQUIPE gets a notable trainer change to Montini and that makes her dangerous in this spot; using. (4) TWIN B TIPSTER missed a month prior to her last start now she comes back in a week and drops. She should improve sharply here and merits a Pick 5 look. (8) KAT is another dropper in here but she seems far more likely to take a share than a win.

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Race 2: CASUAL BREEZE 3YO FILLIES

(3) MIDNIGHT MIRACLE has really taken off in her past three starts and she picks up leading driver Macdonald here with McClure sticking with the Determination-owned filly on the rail. I'll give her the edge. (1) DICENTRA is another whose recent from has improved and she should be a main contender here from the outset; using. (5) HAWAII is another who has been showing the signs of reaching her best form and she should be passing fillies in the last 1/4. She is yet another viable Pick 5 possibility. (7) AMAZONE DUHARAS has looked good racing through her conditions and she beat colts two starts back. I prefer to use her underneath in this spot, however.

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Race 3: F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $23,000 LT AE: 3YO Fillies NA $2,550/start in 2021

(5) CARSONS GOUDA was bet like she couldn't lose here on 8/17 and she crushed like a 1 to 9 shot while knocking close to 10 seconds off her lifetime best winning mark. She simply looks too fast for these at the present time. (4) JM BETONSIX was another big winner when facing maidens and she looks next best tonight. (2) CITY BY THE BAY is capable of beating these if she can find her best race but that would take an extreme form reversal at this point. I'll use her underneath tonight. (7) CONTROL THE THONG should take a share here if she stays flat this week.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(7) SILVER LABEL is the queen of this castle until dethroned and she looks good to extend her unbeaten streak tonight. I thought that Battle of the Belles winner (6) LOVE THAT SMILE raced great from the 10-hole when third to the choice. She is in with an upset chance here in a spot where she could get a great pocket ride following the choice. (3) BALANCE should be in the mix again here after finishing only 1 1/4 lengths behind the choice last time. (1) BIG BETTOR HANOVER should be good for a small share taken off a following trip.

Race 5: F&M NW $8,500 L5 or $17,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(5) LAURAS LOVE got to stretch her legs vs. tougher and she paced a 54-flat back 1/2. She should be the boss in this spot. It's go time. (10) THIS DRAGON ROCKS took a new life's mark when she last raced at this level three starts back and she merits a close look here despite drawing widest. Macdonald has been putting (1) GOODNIGHT IRENE in good spots but she tends to be win shy. Another small share is likely for her tonight. (7) SUNDAY AFTERNOON is sharp and she could better this placing if she works out a good trip racing close to the front.

Race 6: CASUAL BREEZE 3YO FILLIES - Pick 5

(3) DONNA SOPRANO is best of these when she is on her game and it's only a few weeks ago when she trotted a 1:51 3/5 lifetime-best mile; top call. (6) IMEXTRASPECIAL has really excelled in the past six weeks and she should be the main threat again racing from close range. (5) H P MAMA B is fast and consistent and either of the second or third choice can give the top pick a race tonight. She might go off as third choice too and this might be where the value lies in this race. (7) RUBYS ARE NICE is another filly that is improving but she figures to take a small share in this tough spot.

Race 7: F&M 5YO and Younger NW5 or $92,000 LT

This race is a bit of a puzzle with many in here racing in between $100K Gold races. (1) NICE KITTY HANOVER should fall into a covered trip by default leaving from the rail and her price will be better this week. I'll give her the nod. (4) WESTERN WISH has been racing great for several weeks and her grinding first-over style works much better at Mohawk Park. She will be one to fear in the lane here. (8) CYCLONE SISTER has turned a corner in her last two starts and I imagine she will be leaving here as she does her best work on the front end. She is in with an upset chance tonight. (7) JODY took advantage of the rail to take a Gold win at Rideau Carlton. In this lineup, I see her finishing in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 8: NW $8,200 L5 or $16,000 L10

(10) REAL WILLEY is sharp as a tack right now and he has the gate speed to blast off from the 10-hole. I can see him wiring these. (3) ROCKME ROLLME was dead game but he didn't have enough left after grinding first up to hold off a closer. His price will be better here moving back up off that loss and he is a viable multi-race option. (5) GO WEST GO FAST left for position then got shuffled out of contention. He is an interesting price play to me here as he might trip out this week. (4) H P NAPOLEON can close for another small share here.

Race 9: F&M NW $25,000 L5 or $39,000 L10 or NW $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000 - Pick 4

(6) ROSE RUN VICTORY had a tough go on the front end last week in what was a decent effort. She was loaded the week before with nowhere to race in the lane and from a good post tonight she should revert to her closing style which can be deadly; top call. (2) LYONS TILT HANOVER keeps getting better having paced a 53 2/5 back 1/2 last week to get the win. She is so sharp right now she is hard to leave out. (7) KENDALL SEELSTER drops back down from the top class and she will likely go favored. She is always tough at these levels. (5) SPORTY TORI has been on fire but this is a much tougher assignment and I'll use her underneath tonight.

Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES

It seems obvious that this race will come down to (1) FADE OUT and (4) PROHIBITION LEGAL. The former appears to be the sharper of the two right now and I'll give her the nod to end the latter's win skein. The rest will likely be fighting for scraps. I'll take (5) CHERYLS SHADOW and (6) FLO to round out the Tri and Super.

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Race 11: F&M 5YO and Younger NW3 or $58,000

(1) SETTN A PRECEDENT paced down the lane like she was shot out of a rocket launcher last week, now she draws better; call to repeat. (2) SWEET PINK had her win streak broken at Rideau Carlton when she was used hard early in the mile. She should be a threat here racing from close range. (6) SHES GOT IT ALL is another who figures to contend because she is one of few leavers in this race and she should get a good trip racing near the front. She's on my Pick 4 ticket. (4) MYWISHLISTFORYOU is capable of better than she showed here last week and I expect her to close late to take a share tonight.

Race 12: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $65,500 LT

(5) ILLGETMYOWN THANKS draws better tonight and he figures to get a setup for his potent late kick; call to upset. All (10) SHADOW IN RED does is win, but the 10-hole could be the great equalizer here. I'd be careful to not take a short price. When (6) FOREFATHER was allowed to cut a 29-flat second 1/4 last week, the race was over at that point. He will be tough here if he is allowed to steal another breather. (9) CANTSTOPLYING was good here last week after cutting a wicked opening 1/4. He's not out of this but I prefer to use him underneath. (2) SALTWATER SAVAGE never misses a check and he should be part of the High-5 tonight.