Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 9/29

Top Pick Stats: 452 - 1349 / $2,416.20 (-$281.80)

Best Bets: 72 - 128 / $246.40 (-$8.60)

Spot Plays: 23 - 129 / $145.80 (-$102.70)

Best Bet: VALUABLE MISS (1ST)

Spot Play: POWDER PLAY (7TH)

Early Pick 5: 6/1,4,7/2/3,5/4,5,10 = $3.60

Late Pick 5: 4,6,7/7,9,10/4/3,5/1,8,9 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 5/4,5,10/4,6,7/7,9,10 = $5.40

Late Pick 4: 3,5/1,8,9/3,7,8/3 = $3.60

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 5 2YO TROTTING FILLIES **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(6) VALUABLE MISS looked super last week making an aggressive first up move and sustaining it through the lane and to the wire for a Grand Circuit score. She gets the call to repeat off that sharp victory. (5) R LIZA fits well here and she should be an Exacta factor if she can stay flat this time. (4) NO ONE should be better in this second start back and he can stick around for a share this time. (3) EVOLVING trotted a big final 1/4 in her qualifier but keep in mind that was off 3/4 trotted in 1:35 3/5. I see her taking a small share.

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Race 2: F&M 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 3,4,5YO claiming $50,000 AE: NW2 in 2023

(4) DUCHENNE raced against a filly that swept all legs and the final of the Golden Rod in Kentucky and this should be a decent spot for her, top call. (7) SUNSHINE SALLY faced much tougher older mares recently. She's a threat to lead all the way tonight. (1) JM BETONSIX tracked some big fractions last week and stayed around for a share. She is in with a decent chance here. (5) TWIST LITTLE GIRL N tripped out, tipped out and passed some winded leaders last week to take a new life's mark. I prefer to use her underneath here.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 5 2YO TROTTING FILLIES

(2) WILLYS HOME RUN looked like a Grand Circuit winner last time, but she didn't have her typical zip at the end of the mile. I think she rebounds here. (4) RHYTHM OF LIFE hasn't missed the board yet and she comes off a solid try where she just missed at this Gold level. She should be the main threat to the choice. (3) ZIPPY ZAPPORAH looked good breaking her maiden, but this is way tougher; using underneath. (1) MUSCONE can close for another slice in this spot.

Race 4: NW $15,000 in 2023 - Pick 4

(5) INN AT RODANTHE couldn't go with Villefranche AS last week, but no one could. With that rival not in here, he gets top billing. (3) SIMCOE SEELSTER took a lot of money last week and never really fired. He races better when he is on or close to the front and he will likely get sent leaving the gate this time. He’s the other one that I’ll use on early multi-race tickets. (2) HESOHOT HANOVER qualified nicely for this, and he is good enough to take a share vs. these types. (9) MY HOLY MOLEY should be passing some of these late. Consider him for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 5: 2YO colts and geldings NW1 or $5,000 LT

Interesting race where you get three Jimmy Freight offspring all drawn widest and with their sights likely set on the $100,000 Jimmy Freight stakes next Saturday night. I'll side with $75,000 yearling (4) RULE THE WEST who is related to seven winners and shows two 27-flat kickers in her qualifiers. That signals readiness for this debut; top call. Homebred (5) LYONS GERRARD is another that looks well prepped for this initial start by Team Beaton; using. (10) PORTERS MAN is likely best in here, but you have to wonder how hard he will be used coming off a rest with the $100K purse coming in eight days. Caveat emptor. (6) BROOKLYN STRONG can take another share in this spot.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 5 2YO TROTTING COLTS AND GELDINGS - Pick 5

(4) GRIFF took a check in the Mohawk Million is a strange race where three of the top contenders broke and one came back to win. I'll give him the nod here. (6) ELEGANT RESOLVE gets needed post relief here and he will likely blast off the gate this time. He figures to be the main threat to the choice. (7) JACK N ABS should get a good trip on or near the front here and McNair will likely send him; using. (2) MASSTERCRAFT shows three checks in Gold races and this isn't a stacked field. He is another in with a shot here.

Race 7: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(10) POWDER PLAY had the idea to fire out from a wide post last time vs. Grassroots foes but several others had the same idea. Facing easier here, if she blasts and makes front, she could lead all the way. (9) FATED FIRE faced tougher in her local debut, and she should improve sharply in this spot; using. (7) ZEBS BREAKING DAWN is improving but I doubt she gets a clear lead in a 57-flat 1/2 this week. She will likely need to stalk and try to pounce. I'd demand a price at this level. (2) SALDANA HANOVER ships in sharp and goes to Montini and she is in the exotics mix.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD LEG 5 2YO TROTTING COLTS AND GELDINGS

(4) WILLOWTIME really impressed in his most recent win, making several moves then holding off the closers late. He will be a single for me here as he seeks a fourth win in four starts. (5) SOAR HIGHER, 2nd to the choice in two straight, should be the main threat again. (1) MYRETIREMENTDREAM has been right there in every start where he stayed flat, and he should be an exotics factor here. (2) WHAT ABOUT ELMO should close for a small share again.

Race 9: F&M NW $23,500 L5 or NW $38,600 L8 AE: NW7 LT - Pick 4

(3) SO MUCH MORE was better last week and the two mares that beat her aren't here tonight; top call. (5) VELVET STINGER was hot until she raced over her head in the Milton. She can rebound with a much better effort tonight. (4) MYSTIFYING gets needed post relief tonight and I see her closing to round out the Tri or Super. (6) SWEET AMIRA comes off a strong effort, but these are tougher; small share predicted.

Race 10: Horses that have started for a purse of $9K or less in 1 of L3

(1) THE FIXER git hammered at the windows last week, but the winner was too good. He fits well here, and he should be the one to beat. (8) SHES GOT PIZAZZ appears to be rounding into form and she is capable vs. this group. I think she gets more aggressive in this spot. (9) COOL CLIFFORD is almost always in contention, and he could get brave if he clears to the front; price look. (6) OVERKILL HALL gets Lasix and Macdonald but he has missed close to two months. I'd tab him for next week.

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Race 11: F&M NW $8,000 L5

(7) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL loomed dangerously in the lane last week, but the winner was too tough. She is sharp and she gets top billing vs. these. (3) BEACH MOMENT takes a big drop here which should wake her up, but I wonder if she will get overbet. (8) CARSONS GOUDA flew late last week now she gets Macdonald back. A speed blast might be coming here; using. (1) VOELZ DELIGHT fits well here on paper but her 0 for 2023 record makes her a fade for me.

Race 12: F&M NW $4,000 L5 or $8,200 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(3) MOMENTARILY should boss this group on the multi-level class drop. (9) THE IDEAL HUNTRESS fits okay here, and she returns quicker this time. She should get a good share vs. these. (2) SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA faced better last time she raced here. She should be part of the Tri. (4) SPORTS DUCHESS brings some good form in from the 'B' tracks and if she could reproduce her effort from two starts back, she might upset these. (1) TWIN B BETTY should be good for a small slice in this spot.