Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 9/13

Top Pick Stats: 496 - 1438 / $2,658.80 (-$214.20)

Best Bets: 70 - 133 / $221.30 (-$44.70)

Spot Plays: 31 - 131 / $286.40 (+$24.40)

Best Bet: HOW MUCH (6TH)

Spot Play: ELLAS REASON A (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3/1,6/5,6,8/2,3/2,3,8 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 1/6,7/2,3,4,7/5,6/2,4,6,7 = $12.80

Early Pick 4: 2,3/2,3,8/1/6,7 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 2,3,4,7/5,6/2,4,6,7/5 = $6.40

Race 1: Pop Up Series Leg 2 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**.

I thought (3) WILDRIVERBUMBLEBEE raced well in defeat in Leg 1, and he will be happy to not see Delightful Leader lined up on the gate tonight. He has a good chance to lead these all the way or win from the pocket tonight. (2) CONTROL THE POWER was well driven to win in Leg 1 and he should be the main threat here. (7) UP JOEYS CREDIT got a great drive from Ryan to win going away last week. The issue tonight is he gets a worse post and will likely be farther back early in this mile. I’ll use him underneath this time. (5) YOU CAN HAVE ITALL will likely take another small share in this spot.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 5. 3 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES

(1) COLLUSION HANOVER got a good tightener in last week and she should be primed for another big Grassroots effort tonight; top call. (6) ANN similarly was kept sharp last week taking a win over some elders. Her 1:50 lifetime mark was taken in a previous Grassroots leg this summer and she should be the main threat here. (2) MAKE OUT WITH ME was racing on a stale date last week. She should improve starting from a better post tonight; using underneath. (3) SWIFT TALKER will likely sit a trip again and land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

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Race 3: Pop Up Series Leg 2

(6) DELIGHTFUL LEADER was an easy winner in Leg 1, and he should be tough in here coming off a win in a conditioned race last week. (8) LORD ANTHONY sizzled on the engine last week now he gets the leading driver, and he gets back to a seven day rotation. He is a threat to repeat on the lead. (5) FOREFATHER was out all the way last week and he kept coming. He is capable if he can work out a better trip and he’s worth a look for the early Pick 5. (7) PALLADIUM HANOVER couldn’t go with Lord Anthony last week and this is a tougher field. I’ll use underneath.

Race 4: F&M NW $4,000 L5 or $12,250 L8 AE: N/A $1,470 P/S IN 2023 OR 2024 AE: NW OF A RACE IN 2024 (MIN. 10 STARTS) - Pick 4

(2) ELLAS REASON A was a winner last time she raced this low in July and she is the one to beat here. (3) SPORTS DUCHESS has paced two sub-1:52 miles and closed rapidly the two times Macdonald drove in August. She will win one of these weeks, maybe tonight. (4) IMA DOLL should improve enough on the class drop tonight to land in the exotics. (5) IRIS SEELSTER raced okay in a fast mile last week and she can get a share here again.

Race 5: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: 2 YEAR OLD OPEN

(8) EMOTICON LEGACY looked flat in the stretch on 8/24, perhaps still not 100% recovered from sickness. He should be tough to beat here if he brings his A game. (3) EXTENDED SESSION is obviously one of the best colts in here, but he shows three breaks in a row in pari-mutuel races. What price would you take? (2) TREGARON is a Grand Circuit winner that is racing well that could capitalize if the two obvious choices falter. I’ll use him on multi-race tickets. (6) SOUTHWIND CASPIAN just finished 3rd in a Grand Circuit race, and he should be in the exotics mix again here.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 5. 3 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES - Pick 5

(1) HOW MUCH took a 1:49 3/5 lifetime mark last time she raced in the Grassroots and she I clearly the one to beat in this short field. (5) BETTERWITHGLASSES gets post relief here and she will likely look to find the pocket early in this mile. She can be an Exacta factor. (4) PASTA DELIGHT has raced well in some Grassroots races. She can take a share here. (2) WE MEET AGAIN gets post relief and she can sit a trip racing closer to the front here and land in the bottom of the exotics.

Race 7: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES

(7) MONALISHI and (6) LASTING DREAM, 1-2 finishers in the Peaceful Way clearly look best in here and it makes sense to favor whichever of these evenly matched fillies offers the higher price as the gate starts to roll. (1) GLOBAL HERITAGE is the newcomer in the field, and she gets sent out by a high percentage barn. I can see her rounding out the Tri. (8) FOXY AMEE hasn’t missed the Exacta in her five starts but she draws worst and faces tougher here; small share predicted.

Race 8: CHAMPLAIN STAKES: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - Pick 4

(4) SONMAR POND shows up here on a two-race win streak and we likely haven’t seen her best race yet. I’ll call her to upset here. (2) SOUTHWIND MILK needed clean line last time and she was predictably mildly driven in a race where they crawled on the lead. She would be no surprise here. (7) MEDLEY SEELSTER just won a Gold race on the engine and she is an obvious threat to repeat on the lead. (3) BEERSNSUNSHINE DEO is another that was a victim of pace last time in a race that should serve as a great prep for this Grand Circuit race. She is another to consider for late multi-race tickets.

Race 9: F&M NW $25,000 L5

There are a few droppers in here and of those, (6) HUNTRESS has been finishing closest in the top class. She will likely clear from the widest post in a short field and look to lead all the way. (5) DABARNDAWGSWATCHIN is another that should be blasting here and this race could turn into a game of cat-and-mouse where whoever can work into the pocket prevails; using. (4) CAVIAR N CRACKERS is up against it as a closer in a short field, but she should come on late for a share. (3) STYLE FOR A MILE is another dropper that will likely be looking to close; small share predicted.

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Race 10: Pop Up Series Leg 2

In a wide-open race. I’ll go to (7) PIPEWRENCH CHARLIE, who looked like a horse that needed a start last week in his comeback race. (6) BETTORBEFLYIN get Roy back tonight coming off a decent closing effort last week and he should be a late threat here; using. (4) SIR A produced a 27-flat kicker in a good conditioned claimer field and he is one that might roll past the leaders here if he gets a good following trip. Consider him for late multi-race tickets. (2) KANSAS PANIC exits some tough races, and he should be able to land in the top four in this spot.

Race 11: F&M NW $9,500 L5 or $18,250 L8 AE: NW $80,000 LT

(5) SHES GOT IT ALL jogged at a higher level six starts back and the big class drop should be exactly what she needs here. A big speed try is likely tonight. She will be a Pick 4 single for me. (3) BLINDED BY DELIGHT was handled with complete confidence last week, driving by the open pocket early and insisting on making front. She can be an Exacta factor right back. (4) ALABAMA HANNAH gets needed post relief, and she can get a piece of this at a price. (1) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL drops but I don’t love the rail post for her. She will likely close for a small share. (10) GIAS SURREAL is another dropper in here but she draws worst and would be rated higher if she got a better post.