Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 9/1

Top Pick Stats: 389 - 1186 / $1,993.20 (-$378.80)

Best Bets: 62 - 111 / $219.40 (-$2.60)

Spot Plays: 20 - 111 / $120.60 (-$101.40)

Best Bet: STOCKADE SEELSTER (5TH)

Spot Play: ZEBS BREAKING DAWN (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 6,9/3,4,6,7/3,4,7/2,4,5/4 = $14/40

Late Pick 5: 4/6,7,9,10/2,4,6/4/2,3 = $4.80

Early Pick 4: 2,4,5/4/4/6,7,9,10 = $2.40

Late Pick 4: 4/2,3/5,6/3,7,9,10 = $3.20

Race 1: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $22,500 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(9) P L QUINELLA reversed his form instantly when his trainer handed the lines to the leading driver, and I'll give him the nod to repeat. (6) THE GREAT EMOTION is the fastest horse in here and he can win if he is raced aggressively in between sires stakes starts. (3) BELVEDERE BRONX is usually in the mix, and he will likely take a slice in this spot. (4) RADCLIFFE shoots for the threepeat but this is tougher; small share predicted.

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Race 2: 5YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(3) MONEY ON THE BEACH finished well in his first start in a month and he will likely get a more aggressive steer tonight; top call. (4) UGOTTALOVEBLUECHIP is interesting moving into the leading trainer's barn in a race with no standout. The tote board may provide some clues here. (7) NOTHING BETTOR B is improving, and he could roll past them all late in this mile. (6) MATTS GEM comes off a strong effort, but he is 0 for 15. I'd demand a price here.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 4: 3 YO PACING FILLIES

(3) MIST AMBER was better last week and driven more aggressively. She has a sub-1:52 mile in her toolkit when she is at the top of her game and put into the race and we might see it tonight. (4) FAVORITE BEACH is razor sharp and the obvious one to knock off. She's hard to leave out of the Pick 5. (7) ONE LAST WISH sandwiches Gold wins around tighteners racing against very tough older mares. Don't count her out here. (5) OCCASIONALLY SHARP takes a lot of checks and she should get another here.

Race 4: NW $2,100 L3 AE: OPT CLM $15,000 - Pick 4

(4) VILLEFRANCHE AS faces easier adds Lasix and gets McNair. All of those changes should tip the scales I her favor in this bottom level conditioned race. (5) MISTER MAGIC went too fast too early last week. He is capable at this level; using. (2) THE LIONKING AS is another that is in easier that should wake up and Macdonald sticks with him. I wouldn't be surprised to see this gelding on the engine tonight. (3) KEVIN ANTHONY should improve on the class drop but he doesn't win often. He will likely close belatedly for a slice.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 4: 3YO COLTS & GELDINGS

(4) STOCKADE SEELSTER paced a phenomenal parked-out mile when 2nd to the best sophomore pacer on the continent in the Hempt in his last start. He is getting better as the season progresses and that’s likely bad news for his sires stakes rivals here. (7) MOMENT IS HERE got a good tightener in vs. some tough older pacers last week when picked off right on the line. He should be the main threat. (8) BETTER B BOLD can close from the clouds to get a slice here. (3) MIDNIGHT NATION does his best work in these Gold races. He is worth using in the exotics at a price.

Race 6: F&M NW $8,850 L5 or $12,500 L10 AE: NW 7 LT or NW1 in 2023 - Pick 5

(4) SNOW SHARK takes a big drop here after missing checks in two straight and she is strictly the one to beat. (6) WILDCAT STAR is capable at this level, and she draws best returning from a break. I can see her in the Exacta tonight. Sophomore (8) MOLLOP HANOVER just won the Lynch consolation, but this is a tougher assignment now facing elders. I'll use her underneath. (3) MY ONLY SUNSHINE should sit close to the front throughout and stay for a share.

Race 7: F&M NW $14,000 L5 or $21,500 L10 W/O to draw outside

This looks like a race that sets up for class-dropping closer (6) MYSTIFYING and she should offer a decent price with other droppers in the race and another filly on the rise after winning two straight. (7) SHES GOT IT ALL is another that will likely benefit from a strong early pace; price look for the multis. (9) VELVET STINGER shoots for the threepeat but she will likely have to endure a tougher trip here. I'd demand a price. (10) POWERED BY MACH fits much better at this level but I wonder if overcoming post 10 might be too much to ask; using underneath.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 4: 3 YO PACING FILLIES

(2) LYONS BETTORDAY unsurprisingly needed last week’s start after missing 18 days and that mile where she expended little energy while getting tight should pay dividends tonight. All systems go. (4) IMA DOLL is sharp, and she finished 2nd in a Gold two starts back. She could get a great trip racing on or near the lead tonight; using. (6) BIG BIG PLANS is 0 for 2023, but her recent form is okay, and she is another that could get a favorable trip racing near the front. She is in with a shot tonight. (7) MOMENTARY CONTROL should be good for a small share in this spot.

Race 9: FILLIES & MARES FREE FOR ALL - Pick 4

(4) SILVER LABEL is the current queen bee older pacing mare on the continent and she’s the one to beat here at another short price. (7) PROHIBITION LEGAL, the choice's stablemate, raced great in defeat in her first start back and she should be the main threat again. (6) SO MUCH MORE is never out of it in any race, but the top two choices are going better right now. Smaller share predicted for her tonight. (1) DABARNDAWGSWATCHIN should be part of the exotics.

Race 10: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(3) ZEBS BREAKING DAWN is an unbeaten 2 for 2 with Macdonald in the bike and she can resume her winning ways tonight with the leading driver returning. (2) MYSTIC WILD ROSE comes off a good first up Grassroots try at Hanover, and she fits well here; using. (1) EBONY LADY hasn’t missed the board in six starts and she is in the exotics mix here. (5) REGGAE HANOVER broke stride, flew home in that mile, was a vet scratch then missed four weeks. I'll use her on the bottom tonight.

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Race 11: F&M 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 5 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO claiming $50,000

This is a field that sophomore (6) FRONT PAGE STORY should easily handle if she gets put into the race early enough, the quandary being this isn't a race she needs to win with some big autumn stakes coming. (5) GRANDEUR SEELSTER is razor sharp and she's the logical alternative to the choice. (2) CHELSIS CHOICE will likely pass some of these late and land in the exotics. (3) ELISES DELIGHT is better than she showed at Hanover. She can sneak into the Super here.

Race 12: FILLIES & MARES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 4 STARTS

(3) MY MOTHER PEARL was live last week but after making the lead early, two rivals passed her mid race, and she got stuck behind a stopper on the far turn. She was then mired down on the inside in the lane. She's in with a shot here. (9) DOLLYDAYDREAM closed nicely in the Popup final, but she was too far back. Post is an issue again, but she could do if she is close enough at the 3/4 pole. (10) GOODNIGHT IRENE is worth a look on the driver change to J Mac alone. (7) CAN THIS BE REAL comes off a decent effort and she can land in the exotics tonight. (2) GIRL SCOUT COOKIE fits okay here and can take a share, but she is 1 for 27 this year so I'm not sure what makes her the 3 to 1 morning-line favorite.