Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 8/7/26

Top Pick Stats: 429/1342 (-$668.70)

Best Bets: 53/120 (-$33.90); Spot Plays: 29/123 (-$69.70)

Best Bet: TUFF GOING (Race 8)

Spot Play: ARTISTIC DELIGHT (Race 9)

Early Pick-5: 3,9/4/5/1,2,3,4,9/2,4 $4.00

Late Pick-5: 1,2,4/4/9/4,7/ALL $12.00

Race 1: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

I expect (3) JYN ERSO to be positioned much closer given the post switch. The ability she has flashed against Gold rivals to this point makes her an obvious threat. (9) DATAPRIVACY trotted nicely through the wire and really took a step forward in career start number two. Multiple moves are likely necessary from a wide start, but another week of progression makes her dangerous. (5) FLAWLESS LADY gets away from the rail where she made a miscue from last out. She was able to last a long time on the lead in her debut against some nice fillies. This draw favors early speed.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD FILLY OPEN.

(4) DAYA was forced to pull earlier than McClure wanted because of a longshot threatening to box her in. She put forth a good mile behind A Clean Deal who isn’t here this week. Time for her to shine. (3) POWNAL BAY BOBBI wound up third over when they turned for home and I think that stifled any momentum and chance she had to get a piece. She may wind up as the lowest exacta partner with Daya, however. (1) CACKLE BERRY was a solid third last week and will likely be chasing for a share again.

Race 3: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $25,000) LIFETIME. AE: MARES N/A $1,805 P/S IN 2025-26.

(5) UPTO LAURA HANOVER trotted a very nice mile in her first start back and should be even tighter tonight. I’ll give her the nod in what can be a tricky class at times. (3) LO AND BEHOLD hasn’t brought her best when in between stakes tries, but her outside moves carry her a long way regardless. Others aren’t as consistent. (1) GO ROSSCO was able to clear to the lead when his main rival made a break, and he cruised from there. He could find live cover from one of the other contenders and make himself a main threat.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW $15,000 (ON SIRED $22,500) LIFETIME. AE: NW OF A RACE IN 2026 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(3) FAVORITISM is third back now and had a tough first over trip in her latest. I think she shows even more tonight and gets the job done. (1) COLD CREEK ESPERO has been stuck in limbo at different classes against mares that are just better than her. She sneaks into this race with the second part of the condition and fits much better here. As does (9) ADINA HANOVER who was a good second after showing gate speed from an outside post. She doesn’t love to pass horses, though, and similar tactics could see her a few steps short in the final eighth.

Race 5: PURE IVORY FINAL: (GR 3). 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING FILLIES.

I took a shot with (2) EMMA DEO last week and she cemented the potential that she flashed on debut. She still managed to outfinish the favorite despite a horse breaking in front of her. That allowed said favorite to get a clear path. I’m going right back to her in the final. (4) TREASURE KING was the aforementioned favorite in that race. She got lucky that room materialized, but she also trotted a very strong final quarter. I would look for an aggressive steer from this draw considering the big money is here. (5) REBEL MOON took advantage of a nice second over tow and another poor Jamieson drive on the race favorite. I personally don’t think she measures up to the top two, but she has proven that she can take air on the outside and finish nicely.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (OS4) RACES OR $56,000 (OS $70,000) LIFETIME.

(1) MY GIRL FRIDAY kicked in and fought back to retake the lead and the win against Jen Tilly in her latest. Her last two starts have been very good. (4) JEN TILLY is rounding back into winning form and hasn’t had to deal with some of the top fillies in the country. Lasix has appeared to help, too. (2) A BETS A BET made a move to the front and set a quick opening half. An easier trip third back could see her right there again.

Race 7: MILLARD FARMS FINAL: (GR 3). 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS.

(4) DETONATER HANOVER is the best colt of this class when Unstable Genius isn’t around. This is his race to lose, especially with this draw. (7) ACCESS NOW made what appeared to be a menacing bid against Detonater Hanover, but he was toyed with in the end. I think he’s talented, but no match for my top pick. (6) THREE SIX ZERO didn’t look as visually impressive in his elim but he eventually drew away. He should work out a trip from up close.

Race 8: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(9) TUFF GOING has yet to prove himself on paper, but last week’s mile absolutely fits against these. Two races against Unstable Genius to start your career isn’t exactly the easiest task. (7) BALIUS returns after a solid qualifier and looks to get out of the blocks for the Menary barn. (2) DATA BREACH is progressing similar to Dataprivacy for the same connections. He should take advantage of a lackluster field and take home at least a piece.

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Race 9: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $34,000 (OS $38,000) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YO NW $7,000 L4.

(7) ARTISTIC DELIGHT continues to string together quality efforts. Last week’s sharp turn of foot came against My Girl Friday and Jen Tilly, who are better than these. She’ll get her trip soon. (4) MONTE AMORE went down the road in her latest and draws well for another speed try. (5) JAY is rounding back into form and is definitely better when she can spring off a helmet. I can see her getting another piece.

Race 10: NW $2,700 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $6,000 LAST 6 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000.

Tough finale. (6) THE BEAR A CUDA could provide sneaky value if he gets back to himself. He could get away up close and see his main rivals battle from the outside. (10) KADIDDLE likely springs forward from the high draw and may look to take the field all the way. (9) SPRITE SEELSTER could take advantage of the early battling with her late turn of foot. The problem is where she’ll be positioned at the top of the stretch.