Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 8/21

Meet Stats: 152-525/ $896.10 (-$253.60)
Best Bets: 24-47/ $75.70 (-$18.30)
Spot Plays: 10-49 / $71.20 (-$26.80)
Best Bet: PARISIAN BLUE CHIP (7TH)
Spot Play: AMINI (1ST)
Early Pick 5: 4,6,10/1,2,5/1,8,10/1,4,7/1,2 = $32.40
Late Pick 5: 4,5,7/3/3,8,9/4,5/1,4 = $7.20
Early Pick 4: 1,4,7/1,2/4,5,7/3 = $18
Late Pick 4: 3,8,9/4,5/1,4/1,10 = $24

Race 1: 2YO Fillies **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(4) AMINI made two moves on a big favorite that simply was too good and drew away in the lane but that was a good effort and she gets the nod here. (10) LADY MIDNIGHT should be happy to not face Notorious Pink and she is the obvious filly to beat but I have a hard time taking a short price from the second tier. (6) INDRA HANOVER gets class and post relief here and she is another who could take this with the right trip. (9) SPORTSFIRE is in solid form and she should be able to get away well from the outer post; using underneath.

Race 2: FILLIES AND MARES PREFERRED

(5) STONEBRIDGE SOUL wasn't far behind the top aged pacing mare on the continent in two straight starts and she should be tough vs. these. (2) TREACHEROUS REIGN exits the same race as the choice, and she didn't miss the Exacta once in five straight races at this class here prior to that start. She is an obvious threat. (1) TALL DRINK HANOVER has yet to score this year, but she is obviously classy enough and another possibility in a race where it makes sense to price shop. (4) PHILLY HANOVER was good here last week despite finishing with broken equipment and she could better this placing with a trip.

Race 3: 5YO and Younger NW3 (F&M5) or $40,000 (F&M $50,000)

Tough race here with colts and fillies mixed and many between stakes engagements. (10) NYLANDER was beaten by a hot horse last time and this race could set up better for him to make one big late surge; slight nod. (8) INTENSE JUSTICE is an interesting longshot to me as she could be right up on the pace this week and I'll use her in this early Pick 5. (1) FIELD GUNNER was a very expensive yearling that is coming into his own now for a hot barn. Another win here by him would be no surprise. (3) WINE RACK HANOVER was close in this class three starts back and she can take a slice here.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - GOLD - 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(4) JIMMY CONNOR B may get bet down here based on the 53 1/5 back 1/2 he paced in his debut, but he could be hard to hold off if he gets a better start. (1) TWIN B EAGLE was no secret and he led all the way setting strong splits to beat the choice. He could improve again here; using. (7) SPRINGBRIDGE DUEL gets his nose back on the gate here and that gives him a much better chance but check him out on the track as he can be steppy scoring down. (9) BULLDOG HANOVER has been terrific so far but from post 9 I'll use him underneath here.

Race 5: F&M NW $16,000 L5 or $34,500 L10 or NW $11,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000

(1) KLOOF STREET is on a roll right now and another 1:51 mile may be good enough to beat these; slight nod. (2) IVANA FLYBYE N was impressive winning her North American debut, but she has now missed four weeks, so I'm not sure I'd take odds-on here. (3) GIAS SURREAL raced well in the top class at huge odds after shipping in from Buffalo and her 26-flat kicker should play well here; using. (10) SWIFT ALLY rallied for 2nd from this post last week and she can make it into the Super here.

Race 6: NW5 (F&M7) or $70,000 (F&M $87,500) LT - Pick 5

(7) VILLEFRANCHE AS tried the best at Georgian and broke stride. She comes right back five days later in a class she should dominate if she returns to her previous form. (5) LOVEDBYTHEMASSES produced a strong effort to beat Grassroots foes at Kawartha and while this is tougher, he can contend if he brings his best effort. (4) WINGS OF SPEED raced okay after returning from sickness and he could move up in this spot coming back quickly. (6) DELILAH SEELSTER continues to race well, and she can take a share here despite moving up in class.

Race 7: F&M NW $10,000 L5 or $20,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(3) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP was an easy winner last time she raced this low and she should be tough to beat here. (9) BETTOR TRIX N gets hot driver Jamieson back and she raced huge for him two starts back. There could be some exotics value with this mare in this spot. (8) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE is in sharp form and she should be in this Tri at the finish. (2) JIMBELINA closed well late in the mile last week and she merits a look for the Tri and Super.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES - GOLD - 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(9) BETTOR SUN really came into his own at Grand River and he gets the nod here despite drawing widest. (3) DESPERATE MAN is the fastest horse in here so far, but his gait issues in his August 11th qualifier are concerning; your call at a likely underlaid price. (8) AVION SEELSTER has been right there in every start and he could upset here with the right trip. (4) CANDY TRADER should improve getting back to the big track; consider for the exotics.

Race 9: F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $9,250 L10

(4) TRIP ACES HANOVER hasn't hit the board in 8 starts this year but her recent efforts vs. better have been good and she can beat these if she gets put into the race early. (5) LA ALWAYS A MARTINI is the one to catch and beat coming off a narrow loss in this class in fast time. (6) DONTBRUISECARRIE and (1) BIDFORAHUG were third and fourth in this class Tuesday night and both figure as part of this Super.

Race 10: F&M 5YO and Younger NW3 or $62,000 LT

(1) TUAPEKA JESSIE N has missed some time, but both her winning efforts over this track were impressive and she can take another here if she is sharp enough. (4) MY BABY GIRL is as sharp as a tack and the one to beat coming off a lifetime-best score. (5) BACK IN THE GAME fits better here and she picks up Roy to drive. She can take a share vs. these. (2) MAJOR BATTLE is likely to sit an inside trip and come on late for a share vs. these.

Race 11: F&M NW $6,000 L5 or $13,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000

(1) BETCHA BABY beat much better six starts back so she should be hard to beat here getting to drop this low, but she won't offer much of a price. (10) COUSIN MARY is the other big class dropper in here and she could get a trip following the choice; using. (9) BETTER SINGLE races better at this level but from out there a small share is likely. (2) SUNDAY AFTERNOON failed at odds-on last time when dropped to this level. She can improve here if she takes a trip racing near the front. (7) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY can pass a few of these late and land in the Super or High-5 at a price.