Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 8/18

Top Pick Stats: 355 - 1074 / $1,844.50 (-$303.90)

Best Bets: 57 - 101 / $204.40 (+2.40)

Spot Plays: 19 - 101 / $117.70 (-$84.30)

Best Bet: CRYSTAL BALLER (8TH)

Spot Play: ZEBS BREAKING DAWN (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,5/1,4/3,5/1,9/3,9,10 = $9.60

Late Pick 5: 1,2,5/3,4/6/1,3,4,6,7/4,7 = $12

Early Pick 4: 1,9/3,9,10/1,2,5/3,4 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 1,3,4,6,7/4,7/5,6,7/3,9 = $12

Race 1: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $31,500 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) MENDING FENCES had her win streak broken last time but she flew late and she is the one to beat here. (5) OCCASIONALLY SHARP raced well from the 9-hole last week now she draws better. She seems to race better chasing a target and she has more options from this post; using. (1) SWEETEST BELLE, 3rd in a Gold at Grand River, should be in the exotics mix here. (4) TOTALLY RIGGED fired two 27-flat kickers in a row and she is in the exotics mix here.

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Race 2: NW $2,000 L3 or $8,100 L10 AE: NW $3,100 in 2023

(1) SIMCOE SEELSTER gets to drop to the bottom here and he should have a big shot vs. these. (4) GRATEFUL broke last week now he drops again and draws much better. He should contend if he stays flat. (2) ROSIES WAR BONDS is another dropper that figures here, but I prefer to use her underneath in this spot. (3) TUCKERS OUT should sit another good trip racing near the front and stick around for a share.

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Race 3: F&M that have started for a purse of $12K or less in 1 of L4

(3) MS QUICK SAND took a ton of action last week but she was overbet in that spot facing Mystifying. She is in a much better spot here and she should be hard to beat. (5) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL dropped and popped in a string effort and she should be a threat right back. (2) MAJOR LEAGUE N will lead these for as far as she goes. I see her sticking around for a small share. (9) JM BETONSIX shoots for four straight wins but these are tougher; small share predicted.

Race 4: F&M 5YO and younger NW $15,000 LT - Pick 4

(1) ZEBS BREAKING DAWN closed into a 27 2/5 kicker last week but couldn’t make up the entire four-length gap. She can beat these if she is a bit more aggressive. (9) EBONY LADY was sharp beating the choice now she draws wider. She is still the one to fear as she looks to repeat. (2) SIS comes off a good effort but she has missed some time now; using underneath. (3) TWIN B EMPRESS faces older following a sharp maiden win. That's a tough chore for a two-year-old. I'll use her underneath.

Race 5: F&M NW $16,000 L5 AE: OPT CLM $65,000 W/O draw outside

Two droppers from the top class get assigned the widest posts here, but it likely won't matter. I would think they are both leaving and that would land (9) SNOW SHARK in (10) WESTERN WISH's pocket where she can trip out and prevail late. (3) GIAS SURREAL raced better last week and was beaten by a sharp rival. She is another in with a shot here. (2) INTOTHEMYSTICMOON likely sits a trip racing near the front and stays for a share.

Race 6: NW $5,750 L5 AE: OPT CLM $20,000 - Pick 5

(5) ROWLEN faces much easier here and this is the spot where he should wake up. I expect an aggressive Henry steer. (2) ITSTIMETOGOHOME flashed speed vs. better here on Monday night now he fires back quickly. He should be an Exacta factor. (1) RADIO LAB raced better last week and the barn had two wins and a second from three starters here on Monday night; using. (3) NOTHINGBUTADREAMER is a sophomore that fits okay here and he should be good for a slice.

Race 7: F&M NW $4,650 L5 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(3) COZ IM SPECIAL had too far to come last week but she did close well late. I think she gets more aggressive in this spot and prevails. (4) VELVET STINGER showed little against the best older mares in the spring and she wasn't asked for much in her qualifier. Anything remotely close to her best wins this but I wonder how aggressively she will be driven in a race she might need. (8) CHELSIS CHOICE comes off a sharp effort and she can close for another slice here. (2) SHOOT THE WHISKEY raced better with Cullen in the bike last time. She is in the exotics mix again.

Race 8: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT

(6) CRYSTAL BALLER raced well in his first start with Henry driving but he left his move too late. Speed blast coming this time? (4) GRAND SPA chased a repeat winner that was just too tough last time. He can be an Exacta factor here. (1) BELVEDERE BRONX comes out of the same race as Grand Spa and he outfinished him. He is improving and he should be in the Tri again. (3) FATHER DANIELS races better as a closer and he will probably revert to that style tonight and close for a share.

Race 9: F&M 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO to be claimed for $50,000 - Pick 4

(3) BETTORS PUNCH got hung out in a Gold race last time and she fits better here. I'll give her a lukewarm nod in a race full of sires stakes fillies whose intent is a guessing game. (4) CENTURY JAMILA is a win machine that can be counted on to be put into the race leaving the gate which will probably be key tonight; using. (7) TWIN DELIGHT is another sharp filly that should be leaving that is in with a shot. (6) FAVORITE BEACH was an easy Gold winner last time but I could see her taking back and closing late this time. I'll play to beat her.

Race 10: 5YO and younger NW2 or $35,000 LT AE: 3YO NW $1,850 L3

(4) THONG CONTROL was an easy winner vs. similar two starts back and he gets the nod on the drop here. (7) BROOKDALE MIKI is the other dropper in here and he figures to wake up. He should be the main threat, (10) BETTOR THAN PRIDE comes off two strong wins but I think the 10-hole prevents a threepeat tonight; using underneath. (9) BETTOR B SIRIUS is capable of hitting the board at a price at this level.

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Race 11: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $31,500

(6) MIST AMBER gets McClure back and a good post and I'll try her again at a price in a spot where she should go forward leaving the gate. (7) REGGAE HANOVER made a nice recovery after breaking and she is worth using at a price here. (5) TALK CURDY TO ME is fastest in here but she was passively driven at 3 to 5 two weeks ago in a similar spot so I'm not sure what to expect tonight. (4) KUPER TROOPER should be flying late to take at least a share.

Race 12: 5YO and younger NW $16,750 LT

(9) STEEL COWBOY has a stale date but that's because he was gelded after his last start. He adds Lasix, too, and if he can make front here, he may lead all the way. (3) BROOKDALE JOHNNY is the obvious threat coming off a sharp try vs. similar, but he is also 0 for 14 this year. (1) BETTOR ON ICE fits okay here and Borth will find him a good spot near the front leaving the gate. He should be part of the Tri or Super. (2) OH COFFEE BEAN is improving for a high-percentage barn and he should be in the exotics mix. (8) HES SURE GOOD is worth a look moving into Doc Moore's barn.