Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 7/5

Top Pick Stats: 352 - 1049 / $1982.00 (-$116.00)

Best Bets: 53 - 99 / $173.20 (-$24.80)

Spot Plays: 22 - 96 / $217.50 (+$25.50)

Best Bet: FANCY LETTERING (5TH)

Spot Play: SOUTHWIND MILK (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,10/2,5,7/1,4/2,6,7/2 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 2,3,5/3,5,9/1,2,3,6/4,5/2 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 2,6,7/2/2,3,5/3,5,9 = $5.40

Late Pick 4: 1,2,3,6/4,5/2/1,3,5 = $4.80

Race 1: 2YO fillies NW1 or $5,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

$100K Harrisburg buy (2) IBELIEVEINANGELS powered home in her 2nd qualifier and she should be tough in here if she can drop a few seconds, which I believe is likely; top call. (10) STOVID was good in defeat in his second qualifier on 6/21. If she can clear from post 10, she may prove tough to catch; using. (1) RICH GIRL got some experience from post 10 on debut. She draws inside now, and she should start better. She is in with a shot in this second start where she could improve sharply. $32K Lexington purchase (5) DONT CHANG MY NAAM followed the choice on 6/28 and trotted a nice kicker. She can be part of the exotics on debut.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS

(5) CENTURY LUCIFER was flying late in his debut which should serve as a perfect tightener for this initial Gold start; top call. $280,000 Lexington buy (2) SET SHOT will take plenty of action being sent out by Dr. Moore for this debut and he is hard to leave out of the early Pick 5. (7) BUNKHOUSE BOSS also got a good tightener in when 2nd to an impressive colt. He likely doesn’t need to improve much to be a threat here; using. (4) CORPORATE BUSINESS was first up trying to make up three lengths in a 27 1/5 kicker and that was mission impossible. I think he sits and rallies for a share tonight.

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Race 3: 2YO fillies NW1 or $5,000 LT

$50,000 Lexington buy (4) SOUTHWIND MILK looked good chasing down a loose leader that was trotting strong to the wire in her lone qualifier. She seems well advanced for this debut, and she gets top billing. (1) IVY LYNN showed speed both early and late in her debut and she is the one to fear; using. (8) NIGHTINGALE tried the Grand Circuit and broke on debut. She could do here if she stays trotting. $45K London sale purchase (7) GREEN MANS JOY qualified well for this debut and Mario Baillargeon has already won with a rookie trotter for brother Ben this week. She will likely get put into this race early and she should be part of the Tri or Super.

Race 4: F&M NW $4,000 L5 or $11,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000 or NW $20,000 in 2024 - Pick 4

(7) ZEBS BREAKING DAWN raced great two starts in a row and she moves to the Lester barn here. I’m going to call her to upset anticipating she will get a setup for her late kick. (2) WATCH HER DEWITT is five for five at this class level since being claimed by Barrington. Tonight’s field looks tougher, and she could get hooked in a duel at some point, but she remains the one to beat. (6) ELLAS REASON A is an obvious threat on the class drop, but she is also 0 for 2024 and will likely get over bet. Your call. (8) CHELSIS CHOICE is another dropper that should be in the mix tonight. I’ll use her underneath.

Race 5: F&M 4YO and younger NW $17,500 LT AE: 3YO NW $2,500 L5

(2) FANCY LETTERING raced well last week, she was picked off late by a rival that got a perfect trip and didn’t need to be used until deep stretch. This filly looks like a solid single for multi-race tickets. (4) SUNTAN CITY was the first leader in that race then had to re-rally from 3rd. She finished willingly inside of the choice, and she can be an Exacta factor here. (5) GENTRIFY easily handled maidens at a big price in a good effort. She can be part of the Tri or Super tonight. (3) THIRD TIME LUCKY wasn’t lucky to come up against How Much at Clinton last Sunday. That rival scorched the track pacing a mile two-fifths of a second off the track record on a cold windy day in a remarkable effort. This one can take a share here.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1: 2 YEAR OLD PACING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 5

(3) PARLAY KING is by a top sire out of a dam who is remembered around here for being one of the fastest of either gender in her three-year-old year in 2019. I’ll take a shot with this colt on debut expecting a good price. (2) STONEBRIDGE WIZARD couldn’t have won any easier on debut on 6/28 and it appeared that there was plenty left in the tank for this first Gold race. He is the one to beat. (5) ALLSTAR MANIAC paced a big mile over a sloppy track rated three seconds slow on 6/29. Gallucci sends them ready and he is hard to leave out on debut. (7) FIFTH AND FIVE paced a nice back 1/2 in his initial start which should set him up for a good try here. He is in the exotics mix.

Race 7: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(3) THIS MAGIC MOMENT comes off a big win and she holds a recency advantage on her main rival (5) WE MEET AGAIN tonight. Nod to the former but using both on multi-race tickets. (9) WE BELIEVIN chased Ann around the track in a 1:50 mile last time. I think she sits and rallies here prepping for the next Grassroots race. (6) AVYANNA tripped out to take an upset win last week. She likely closes for a small share facing tougher this time.

Race 8: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT - Pick 4

Interesting betting race here with several stakes types signed on, some that have missed some time. I’ll side with (6) TOP MAST, who finished 3rd to budding star Highland Kismet in two straight and holds a recency edge on some rivals. (1) FLIGHT LANDING comes in off two solid efforts in a row, and he can get a good trip racing close to the front; using. (3) SHERMONT almost won a Goodtimes elimination, so he obviously has the class to beat these. He has missed close to three weeks, however, so I wouldn’t take a short price. (2) WILLOWTIME is starting to come around, but he is probably tuning up for a sires stakes race here. He is another that I would demand a price on.

Race 9: FILLIES and MARES PREFERRED

(5) TELLS ON A ROLL did well to get checks vs. Twin B Joe Fresh twice and she has a good shot of leading these all the way. (4) PROHIBITION LEGAL requalified well and I could see her sitting in the choice’s pocket then trying a late move; using. (6) SO MUCH MORE can never be discounted but I don’t love that she is lined up widest here. I’ll use her underneath. (3) ANGOSTURA HANOVER couldn’t be any sharper, but this is a tough chore. A small share is likely for her tonight.

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Race 10: F&M 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT

(2) ODDS ON PLATINUM sticks out here on class but she certainly doesn’t have to win this race with another Gold right around the corner. I think she can get an easy trip and still win, likely racing in (6) ANN’s pocket most of the way. (5) COCO JO JO should be able to land in the exotics using her typical good late kick. (1) BONITAS BEST BET should get another good following trip and take a slice.

Race 11: NW $20,000 in 2023/24 or N/A $1,125 P/S in 2023/24 (Min. 10 starts) AE: NW1 in 2023/24 (Min. 10 starts)

(1) ROSE RUN WHY NOT was first up against a big favorite last week and she held for a share. She can win here if she can work out a slightly better trip; top call. (3) ER NORMA passed the choice after riding her cover. She looks like the main threat here. (5) CHAMBA exits a tough race at Georgian Downs, and he raced well here two starts back when closing late. He is another to consider for the late Pick 4. (6) FEEL THE FORCE takes frequent shares and he should be in the exotics mix here racing from close range. (2) NO ANGEL LIKE ME beat up on some weaker foes at Georgian. This is tougher and a small share is likely this time.