Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 7/4

Top Pick Stats: 24/93 (-$80.10)

Best Bets: 4/7 (-$0.80); Spot Plays: 2/8 (-$5.60)

Best Bet: ITHADTOBEYOU (Race 10)

Spot Play: JOB HUNTER (Race 11)

Early Pick 5: 1,6/1,2/5,6/1,8/1,7 $6.40

Late Pick 5: 1,10/5,9/7/3,7/6 $1.60

Race 1: 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES: GRASSROOTS OR PROSPECT STARTERS.

(1) FOREVERAFTERALL went down the road again from post eight in her latest. She has been ultra impressive this season, and is not a filly I’m looking to pick against until further notice. (6) STELLRMANIPULATION has returned with a perfect 3-for-3 start to her sophomore campaign. She was second in last season’s Grassroots final, so she knows how to win at this level. She can get a big piece tonight. (7) LADY CAFE AU LAIT tracked Foreverafterall after she cleared to the lead, but could only watch as her lead grew bigger in the stretch. She raced well to hold second, and can hit the board tonight. (9) MANHATTAN MAYHEM was bothered in the backfield when they stacked up slightly, and it ruined her momentum. Still, I wasn’t sure she was going to do any real damage from last, which is probably where she’ll be coming from tonight. She can close for a piece.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $65,000 LIFETIME.

(1) ROCKS SHADOW was one I took a major swing with last week, and she completely outraced her odds. I was impressed with her ability in the final quarter and will go back to her again. I do worry about her getting into a position to sit a potential perfect trip, but the price will no doubt be right. (2) LANESIDE INCONTROL has been extremely impressive as of late, but a couple of these can pace just as hard as she can in the stretch. She is a massive favorite that could get picked off, just like last week. (3) ALWAYS DAWN impressed me with her two wins in Pennsylvania, and she showed last time that she can take air on the outside and get the job done. She returns to Mohawk tonight in sharp form and can hit the board. (6) OUTTATHISWORLD DEO could take more support than I think based on who she has been facing, but her last conditioned race was a win by just a nose. I’ll slot her underneath tonight.

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Race 3: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(5) I TAKE THE CAKE was a strong second on debut in a division of the Tompkins-Geers stake. She is the only horse that has a start under her belt. I’ll give her top billing tonight. (6) MISS MASS APPEAL impressed me in her latest qualifier by holding off the horse on her outside, and accelerating well when asked. She can easily take a step forward tonight. (4) M E LAUREL was a very nice winner in her second qualifier. She looms as another main contender in this spot, and hit the board. (7) MEME QUEEN feels like she will take a little bit more time than the others mentioned, though she was much more visually impressive in qualifier two. She can get a piece on debut.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, NW $9,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,260 P/S IN 2024-25. AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(8) CHARMBO STORMY was up against it in her latest when trying an overland trip on a track that was speed favoring. I’m looking for her to be handled more aggressively and produce a better finish tonight. (1) BLUEMEA KISS has strung together three wins in a row and silenced some doubters, also known as me, with the win in her latest. She is a strong contender tonight. (6) HES EXPRESS just got up for an upset win in her latest after flipping off cover. She can step forward in what is just her third start after a layoff and produce a good finish. (9) STYLE FOR A MILE has been extremely hit or miss lately, making her a difficult horse to place. She can pick up a share.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GOLD LEG 1: 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $900

CDN ($700 USD).

(1) SHES A BULLDOG has produced two very strong qualifier wins at Gaitway in New Jersey. Horses that show potential right away and are sent up for a stake are ones you really need to respect. (7) A BETS A BET already has two strong races under her belt, and has shown high speed. She is likely to get in the mix early and produce another strong finish. (3) TH CHECK ME OUT was the winner in the race that A Bets A Bet comes out of, and has done everything right in her two starts. Another logical player. (2) P N G SHADOW looks like another fast pacer out of Cattlewash. She can hit the board in an extremely competitive Gold.

Race 6: 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(1) RONDA MAY K was a sharp winner in her one and only qualifier with no urging from Jody Jamieson. She can come out swinging on debut and get the job done. (10) EYE SEE YOU was another strong winner in her most recent qualifier, and is one that could add some value to the exotics. The post hurts, but if she is handled aggressively, she could produce a good finish. (2) CANUKEEPASECRET has two starts under her belt and is progressing. She can hit the board tonight. (4) STONEBRIDGE CHIPS was interfered with at the start of her latest qualifier. If you pitch that line, she looks like another that can step forward and get a piece.

Race 7: FILLIES & MARES, NW $15,850 LAST 5 OR $20,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: NW 5 RACES OR $170,000 LIFETIME. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000.

(5) ONE LAST WISH was a strong winner on a speed favoring track two back, and held her own against the top ladies on the grounds last week. Louis Roy gets back in the bike this week and can pilot her to a strong rebound effort. (9) COZ IM SPECIAL was a strong second when stepping up to this level. Her versatility makes her a threat despite the wide draw. (1) TELLS ON A ROLL did not fire her best in her latest, which has been a trend for her in recent starts. We know what she is capable of when at her best. She can rebound and hit the board. (6) SORCHA SEELSTER comes off a sick scratch, but is another fast mare when at her best. I’ll slot her underneath tonight.

Race 8: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME.

(7) ALL MY WISHES produced a strong late rally to get the win when dropping back to this level in her latest. She can work out a trip again this week and repeat. (5) MILLIE MAY HANOVER was an even fourth in her latest in a Gold. She is the other main player here despite the one career win. (6) SOMETHING IN BLUE scored easily after a perfect trip in her latest. Look for her to be handled aggressively again and hit the board. (8) PIZZAZZ HANOVER has done great things this season at Rideau, and notably gets Louis Roy tonight. She will need to take a step forward, but can get a piece.

Race 9: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED.

(3) GLENBORO was searching for room in the late stages and was not being asked for her full speed in the final sixteenth. She has severely outraced her odds in her last two starts and shows that she belongs here. She can pull off the upset with the right trip. (7) BLUE PACIFIC raced well up the inside to finish second for the second straight week. She gets Doug McNair back on board who is likely to send her early. (1) GRIT N GRACE has won two in a row in very nice fashion, but the rail draw could cause her to get shuffled early and make the trip tricky for her. I’ll play against her tonight. (4) ODDS ON PLATINUM was first over into a cheap middle half set by Grit N Grace. That was never going to work. She’s yet another contender at the top level if she trips out.

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Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $19,950 LIFETIME. AE: 4 YR OLDS NW $1,850 LAST 5 STARTS.

(6) ITHADTOBEYOU took a conservative route in her first start as a sophomore, but it caused James Macdonald to have to look for room early in the stretch. The winner had already gotten the jump, but she raced well to be second. She can step forward and get the job done. (4) PARKAVENUEJANET was a solid second as the favorite in a Prospect Series race at Grand River. She has high speed and has done nothing wrong in two starts. She merits plenty of respect. (7) MYSTIC MOMENT has found better form in two starts at Georgian, and now adds Lasix for her return to Mohawk. She can hit the board if she continues to race well. (8) WHOLE LOTTA ROSIE should’ve had more on the end of her latest in my opinion. I’ll slot her underneath tonight.

Race 11: FILLIES & MARES, NW $6,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.

(3) JOB HUNTER paced home extremely well to grab a piece despite the widest draw in her latest. That came off the heels of her June 20 race where she had zero room in the stretch. She is in strong form right now and should be a major player if she doesn’t find trouble. (4) CHICKABELL got going just a little too late in her latest. She was part of a five across finish at the wire, but had to settle for fifth. If she works out another trip, she is dangerous. (2) KELLINA DIAMOND took some sneaky money two back but wasn’t able to produce. She raced much better in her latest and was another who was part of that mad scramble at the finish. If she brings the version that we saw last week, she can hit the board again. (5) ONE LAST BET is best when up close, but is 0-for-21 this year. She can grab a piece. (9) SANTAFES APPETITE was completely empty after a first over move. She will likely be storming from the back and can round out tonight’s Hi-5.