Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 7/31

Meet Stats: 119-404/ $624.70 (-$183.30)
Best Bets: 19-36/ $65.40 (-$6.60)
Spot Plays: 9-37 / $64.90 (-$9.10)
Best Bet: TAUPEKA JESSE N (10TH)
Spot Play: JOELSYY HANOVER (2ND)
Early Pick 5: 3,4,8/2,5,6/1,3,4/2,5/2,4,7 = $32.40
Late Pick 5: 2,4/1,2,5,10/3,4,7/4,5/2,7 = $19.20
Early Pick 4: 2,5/2,4,7/2,4/1,2,5,10 = $48
Late Pick 4: 3,4,7/4,5/2,7/4,6 = $24

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(3) DICENTRA moves back up to the Gold division after improving sharply in her second start and the barn continues to run hot; top call. (4) MIDNIGHT MIRACLE looks for a Gold repeat and she draws well. That she took so much action in her debut was telling; using. (8) HADIKNOWNBETTER is an interesting price play getting her nose on the gate for this second start and I am going to put her in my Pick 5 ticket. (6) TEALICIOUS will likely change tactics here and I see her coming on late to take a share.

Race 2: Two Year Olds

(6) JOELSYY HANOVER is a 1/2-brother to four that raced and three of those all won their debuts. I'll take a stab with this $15,000 Harrisburg purchase who should bring a good price. (5) SIR GENE G HANOVER should find this company easier and he is the one the choice will likely need to fear most. (2) LAWLESS SHADOW's debut effort puts him right there with these and he can’t be easily tossed in this spot. (7) VINO LOUIE is capable of better and he should find a helmet to follow this week; using underneath.

Race 3: F&M NW $10,500 L5 or $27,500 L10 or NW $60,000 LT

(3) BETCHA BABY won at a higher class three starts back, so, she should be tough in here getting both post and class relief. (4) OUTLAW IMAHOTVIXEN finished just ahead of the choice last week and she should contend here but note the 11 slices vs. two wins so far this year. (1) HELLO LOVE was dead game in defeat last week and if she finds a live helmet to follow, she can win this. (5) SUNDAY AFTERNOON can take a small slice racing from close range here.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES - Pick 4

There are several possibilities in this Gold race. I'm going to side with (5) A BLUE BLOOD, who finished second in her debut to a filly that came right back and won a Gold race in her next start. (2) BAN BAN DEO had little chance to close into an accelerating late pace. I expect a more aggressive steer this time. (8) WARRAWEE WELCOME has shown that she has the speed, but the time off and sickness make her a question mark here; your call. (9) CLASSY CAROL is one for one with a Gold win, but she should bring a good price here. She's another possibility in a race that has plenty of them.

Race 5: F&M NW $6,000 L5 or $13,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000

Last time (2) WHISTYS PARADISE raced at this level she had no chance from the 9-hole, but she did win in this class on June 19th when she drew better as she does here. She gets the nod over (7) FRANSCHOEK who gets a better post, drops and retains McClure. I can see her waking up in this spot. (4) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE steps up off a loss but that was a good effort and she is in with a chance here. (10) BEHAVENMYSELF seems to fit better at this level and she should take a share.

Race 6: F&M NW $10,500 L5 or $27,500 L10 or NW $60,000 LT - Pick 5

(2) AMERICAN TOUR N made a big move last week when facing some tough mares and she didn't tire badly. She draws better here and gets top billing. (4) DON'T STOP BELIEVIN likely won't be chasing sub-1:50 speed tonight and she should be right in the mix against these. (7) SO LONG DARLING steps up off a lifetime-best score and she can contend again in this field. (9) ROLL WITH SPARKY is three for her last 41 but she's taken 21 slices. She is always a good one to use underneath.

Race 7: 2YO Ontario Sires Stakes Starters NW $5,000 LT

(10) SAUVAYED raced okay in his debut and I'll go price shopping with him here as horses from this barn often show rapid improvement. (5) TWAIN SEELSTER was bet like he couldn't lose his debut, but he choked on the backside and lost all chance. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (1) ADMIT ONE had a useful debut that identifies him as a contender here and (2) SHAZAM BLUE CHIP improved in his second start. There are many options here; demand a price.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD 2YO FILLIES - Pick 4

(7) YOU WILL BE QUEEN has been confidently driven by Christoforou in both wins and she has looked good doing it. A threepeat looms. (3) FOX VALLEY LIZA is already a Gold winner and if she stays flat this time, she should be the main threat. (4) UP AND READY was flying late last time; consider this improving filly for the late multi-race bets. (9) GREAT DANE came second at a big price in her debut and she can take a slice at a price here, too.

Race 9: F&M NW $25,000 L5 or NW $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000

(5) BETTER BE DONNA N is razor-sharp, and she gets to take a slight class drop here. That should make her tough. (4) SEASWIFT JOY N steps up off a game win but she has beaten better when on her game and she merits a close look here. (1) SUNNY DEE also drops, and she should be well placed early. She's not out of this. (8) SWEEY LUCY LOU always gets bet it seems. I see her closing late for a small share here.

Race 10: F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $44,000 LT

(7) TUAPEKA JESSE N always looked the winner last week now she returns to a 7-day cycle which could make her even tougher; call to repeat. (2) POSTMODERNISM was crying out for room late last week, but that video clip is sure to be shown and she is likely to be overbet because of it; your call. (1) LAILA BLUE drops and draws inside which should see her landing in the Trifecta this week. (4) MIA CULPA can pass a few of these late and round out the Tri or Super.

Race 11: F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(4) KIWI FOCUS N gets a huge driver change here and you have to think Henry will be sending her; top call. (6) OUR VACATION was close at this level two starts back when she started with her nose on the gate and she draws one of the best posts here; using. (7) BIDFORA HUG fits well at this level, but a slice seems more likely than a win for her. (3) GIGGLE HANOVER had no shot trying to go first up into hot fractions last time. Expect improvement here. (5) PRETTY HOT typically does well when she drops to this level, but she didn't show much last week. She could crack the High-5 or Super here at a big price.