Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 7/18

Top Pick Stats: 59/189 (-$131.20)

Best Bets: 7/17 (-$5.10); Spot Plays: 2/17 (-$23.60)

Best Bet: MCBUBBLES (Race 6)

Value Play: NICE BUNS (Race 11)

Early Pick 5: 1,3/1/2,3,7/5/2,6 $2.40

Late Pick 5: 1/4,5/1,9/4,6/3,4,8 $4.80

Race 1: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $20,000 (OS $25,000) LIFETIME.

(1) YOU GUESSED IT did all the work when first over in his latest and split rivals to finish second in a blanket finish. I was impressed by that effort given the slow fractions. (3) LASTING DREAM is logical given her back class, but that excuse is running thin, especially if she can’t get it done tonight. (4) STORMONT CHEERIO has the ability to get into the race in multiple different ways. That always makes him a threat to hit the board. (6) FRENCHMONI HANOVER draws a little better tonight. He will be picking off rivals late again.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(1) NAUGHTY DELIGHT loomed at the top of the stretch with J-Mac having a big hold on her. When asked for her best, she swung wide and delivered, which is rare to see on debut. (6) TALBOT KRISTEN made a quarter move but got outsprinted by a sharp looking filly in Chicanery. She should find herself with a good trip. (2) BRISK SEELSTER found a seemingly extremely talented bunch when trying a Gold in her latest. She will appreciate the drop to Grassroots company. I’m not sure what happened to (5) P N G SHADOW on debut, but she is right back two weeks later. She appears to have plenty of speed.

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Race 3: 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS: NW 1 RACE OR $8,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(3) STINGRAY DEO made a good impression on debut despite the shaky qualifiers. He won’t be too far back in a short field and can step forward. (2) JUST GIVENER was an even fifth on debut but was grinding into the margin. These connections can make young horses step forward in a hurry. (7) CHOW FOR NOW gets leading driver J-Mac after the trainer drove in the debut. He was another who made up decent ground in the late stages. (1) STONEBRIDGE BLUFF was fired off the car but got further away from the leaders at every call. A different trip seems in store from the rail.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(5) LAVENDER SEELSTER will have every chance to flaunt her speed on the front if Louis Roy wants to. If her morning preps are for real, she should have no problem. (4) BARBUDA battled in the final quarter after making an outside move. She looks like a grinding type that can wear down some potential cheap speed. (2) ON FLEEK didn’t fire as hard as I thought she would on debut, but a step forward and closer position can allow her to improve tonight. (9) MALICIA SPEED didn’t punch through the seam in her latest like I thought she would, and now she draws widest. Might be used too hard if she goes forward off the car.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, NW $9,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $75,000 LIFE. AE: NW $48,500 IN 2025 (MIN 15 STARTS)

(6) IN THE SPOTLIGHT N was parked for the entire mile from post ten, and was still threatening until after the top of the stretch. I was extremely impressed by that effort, and she draws a better spot tonight. (2) AARDIES MONEY N went down the road again in her latest. She is earning trust back with her backers. (7) SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA continues to race well, and should have pace to chase again. (1) COCO JO JO was overtaken by the classy Tells On A Roll but didn’t let anyone else by. She can battle for a piece.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(1) MCBUBBLES was under a big hold by McClure when pacing to the line in her latest. She appears to have more in the tank. (3) CONTROL YOUR BET had a wall of horses in front of her for the majority of the stretch. She could unleash much more speed tonight at a price. (4) SAMETHINGONYDIFRNT stumped the bettors on debut when she blasted towards the lead and nearly upset at a huge number. She draws a perfect post to try similar tactics. (7) NO BETTER AIR showed more in her latest but still got outsprinted. She needs to find more when it’s time to go.

Race 7: FILLIES & MARES, NW $3,100 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $900 PER START IN 2025 (MIN 5 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000.

(5) SHOOT THE WHISKEY should be aggressively handled off the big drop in class and post a better effort. Watch the board and Will Pays to really know. (4) CHICKABELL has had plenty of trips go against her as of late. She draws better this week and could be handled more aggressively than in the past. (1) KIERA SEELSTER got a cheap middle half and cruised, drawing away from her rivals. If she brings that version of her again tonight, she can repeat. (2) MYSTIC WILD ROSE has plenty of speed in the late stages, but needs to be put in play at least a little bit.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2. 2 YEAR OLD PACING FILLIES. STARTING FEE $400 CDN ($315 USD).

(1) CHICANERY got a perfect trip in leg one of the Grassroots and edged away late. She should be up close again and provide a strong challenge. (9) CATTLEKISS was running horses over when she hit the final turn and paced well when finally able to find room. She has the speed to overcome the post. (2) LIKE A FINE WINE has stepped forward in each official trip around the 3R track. She should improve on the Mohawk oval which is pretty much a drag strip right now. (4) DRILL BIT PENNY was an easy winner on debut at Grand River. This is a step up from the Prospect Series.

Race 9: POP UP SERIES: FILLIES & MARES NW $25,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST START. LEG 2. AE: LEG 1 STARTERS.

(4) MISS CHANTILLY N was a strong winner when dropping to this Pop Up Series. Considering she was my Best Bet last week, it’s hard for me to pick against her. (6) BETTERNOTMACHME gets her nose on the gate after a good effort from the second tier to get a check. She draws a perfect post to be forward from and improve. (3) MS QUICK SAND loves to grind into contention and now adds Lasix. She could spice up the exotics. (2) GOT SEXY SCARS finished a decent second behind runaway winner Madrid. She is still a tricky proposition from week to week.

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Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, NW $6,800 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $13,500 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000.

(3) CAUGHTSTEALINGHOME worked her way into the race again and hit the board in a nice effort. She is an improving type that can get the job done tonight. (4) COCCO PUFF POWER has the speed to contend, but usually paces too hard in the opening half. She could race from off the speed like last week and pick off plenty of rivals. (8) JOB HUNTER could easily get to the lead with an aggressive steer from the outside. Last week’s trip was not conducive for success. (1) ABSOLUTION feels like a mare who is sitting on a big effort in what sets up as a competitive and wide open race.

Race 11: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $37,750 (OS $52,000) LIFETIME.

(7) NICE BUNS could be a value player to close the card. She has been facing much tougher competition as of late and has enough closing speed if she can latch onto a helmet. (8) PIZZAZZ HANOVER was a strong winner after capitalizing off a hot pace set in front of her. Hard to ignore a win like that. (3) WHISKEY BLUE CHIP puts in a solid effort seemingly every time she races at Mohawk. Even two back when she faded, she was near a speed duel and paced a quick mile. (2) KIKI DEE HANOVER has been racing well but needs the trip to really go her way. I’ll look elsewhere. She may tow others into the race. (6) MARLENES LEGACY should get an aggressive steer if J-Mac sticks. She appears to be a cut below some of these but can round out the Hi-5.