Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 7/12

Top Pick Stats: 372 - 1092 / $2,065.20 (-$117.80)

Best Bets: 55 - 103 / $178.70 (-$25.30)

Spot Plays: 25 - 100 / $231.90 (+$31.90)

Best Bet: SORCHA SEELSTER (8TH)

Spot Play: NORTHERN CHARLOTTE (10TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,3,8,9/4,7/4,5,6/4,8/3,7,10 = $28.80

Late Pick 5: 2,4,6,8/3,5/1,7/6,7/5,6 = $12.80

Early Pick 4: 4,8/3,7,10/2,4,6,8/3,5 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 1,3,5/1,7/6,7/5,6 = $4.80

Race 1: 5YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) TACTICAL STRIKE made a rare break last week when she was previously on a roll. She might be able to spring an upset here if she stays flat. (9) PRIVATE ACCESS is a legit Grand Circuit colt that will likely earn a lot of money this year, but he doesn’t need to win this race and I wonder what kind of a trip he will get here starting from a wide post. It’s hard for me to take a short price here. (3) COLD SNAPS was on a roll before she tried the Reynolds. She is another to consider for the early Pick 5. (8) DREBIN is another that was going great before he broke last week. He will be in the exotics mix if he stays flat.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS

We have eight Grassroots rookie trotting colts here with a combined three starts; quite the handicapping conundrum. (4) GUCCI GUCCI GOO is one that has had a start and he produced a decent wide closing effort. I’ll side with him. (7) GO BLUE is another that rallied wide late, and he looks like the main danger; using. (3) LITTLE ARROW shows a couple of decent final 1/4s and he can close for a share here on debut. (5) THE BEAR A CUDA interestingly attracts Macdonald for this debut. He is worth a look for the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 3: F&M 4YO and younger NW2 or $19,750 LT

(5) RAZZIN JAZZ comes in off two blowout wins at Grand River and Cullen is a good partner for another speed try here facing better. I’ll give her a slight nod in a tough race. (6) AVYANNA is the best closer and likely beneficiary if the choice goes too fast early in the mile; using. (4) DEFININGTHE MOMENT got J Mac, an aggressive steer, and a win and the leading teamster keeps the drive here; using. (8) BLAZING BELLE fits better here but she shows a stale date. I’ll use her underneath.

Race 4: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

(4) THE TIME MACHINE, a $55,000 London sale buy, trotted a big back 1/2 in his lone qualifier and his sire has been getting some good results in sires stakes this week; top call. This might be an easier spot for (8) WEARING THE GREEN, who exits a couple of tough maiden races. I like that he has shown himself to be sure-gaited so far. I can see him being a speed threat here. (5) ALIMONY MIKE has a winning qualifier unlike many of his rivals here. He is in with a shot. (1) LEXUS LEGACY is a 1/2 to 23-time winner Lexus Kody ($515K, 1:50 M.). He can improve off his debut; price look for the exotics.

Race 5: F&M NW $4,000 L5 or $11,850 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(10) BLUEMEA KISS takes a class plunge and attracts Macdonald tonight. An all-out speed try is likely here. (7) POWDER PLAY is the other dropper in the field, and she will likely also blast off the gate in this spot. She could trip out and pounce late. (3) ZEBS BREAKING DAWN should get a solid pace to chase in this spot. I could see her rallying past them all if she is withing striking range turning for home; using. (6) BATTLE WITH DESIRE took a new life’s mark racing off the claim last week. These are tougher; small share predicted.

Race 6: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 5

(6) HEAVENS FIRE is a 1/2 to The Canam Banker who just crushed in a 3YO Grassroots race. His lone qualifying effort over a sloppy track rated off by three seconds stamps him as a top contender for this debut. He gets the nod. (8) STMIKES KERRYBLUES raced decently on the engine last week only succumbing late in the mile. He can go forward here, and he should be a speed threat. (4) P L SPENCER, who brought $40K at the London sale, is a full brother to $144K earner P L Rainbow Dash who took a mark of 1:56 2/5 over this track. This colt looks ready to fire at first asking. He is another one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (2) PIERRE IN PARIS shows 28 kickers in both qualifiers. He can’t be discounted either in a field of inexperienced rookie trotters.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 1. 2 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS - Pick 4

Well bred (5) DAY had a bad night on debut when he broke at the start. He can make amends here if he behaves. $45K Lexington buy (3) TIE GAME is a 1/2 to 30-time winner Black Tie Bash. His second qualifier trotted over an off track was impressive and he figures to be a speed threat here; using. (1) CENTURY LEGION has shown some talent in his qualifiers, and he can be right there with these if he stays flat tonight. (4) WENDELL BLUE CHIP improved in his fourth qualifier. Give him a look for the exotics.

Race 8: F&M 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 5 or $45,000 LT

(1) SORCHA SEELSTER got a wild trip last time which eventually led to her getting jammed up and breaking stride. She rallied well at the end of the mile, and she gets top billing now moving to the rail. (7) COCO JO JO comes off a strong effort when 2nd to Odds On Platinum and she figures to be the late threat here. (2) RESILIENCE comes off a big win, but she typically saves her best effort for sires stakes races. I’d be careful here. (3) LIGHTNING LIZZIE should sit a tip and land in the exotics.

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Race 9: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED. HANDICAP. (PP 1-5 & 6-7 DRAWN)

(6) TELLS ON A ROLL is never getting beat when she steals the kind of fractions that she did last week. I’m not sure anyone in here pushes here though so she gets the call to repeat. (7) PROHIBITION LEGAL can be sharper in this second start back and I wouldn’t be shocked if she turned the tables on the choice; using. (5) SO MUCH MORE was first up last week and that wasn’t going to work. I think she sits and rallies for a share this time. (1) CAVIAR N CRACKERS is razor sharp. She can land in the exotics again.

Race 10: NW $20,000 in 2023/24 OR NOT AVERAGING $1,175 PER START IN 2023/24 AE: NW $13,000 in 2024

(6) NORTHERN CHARLOTTE was 2nd in her 2024 debut to a horse that has already come back to beat better. She should be sharper now and she is the one to beat here. (5) FEEL THE FORCE produced a nice closing effort last time now he gets the middle of the gate and J Mac in the bike; price look. (2) TWIN B ARCHIE got a start in, but he might need one of two more before he contends for a win. I’ll use him underneath. (4) ANGEL OF MY DREAMS steps up off a win and she will need more than a 30-flat kicker vs. these; using underneath. (7) MY HOLY MOLEY is in solid form, and he can take a slice here.