Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 6/16

Top Pick Stats: 262 - 812 / $1,377.00 (-$247.00)

Best Bets: 43 - 73/ $155.10 (+$9.10)

Spot Plays: 14 - 75/ $83.30 (-$66.70)

Best Bet: CENTURY JAMILA (3RD)

Spot Play: LADYCORONA (5TH)

Early Pick 5: 3,4,9/4,6,8/1/5,7/3,4,10 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 2,8/4,6,9/1,7/1,3,5/5,7,9 = $21.60

Early Pick 4: 5,7/3,4,10/2,8/4,6,9 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 1,7/1,3,5/5,7,9/1,4 = $7.20

Race 1: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2: 3 YO PACING FILLIES **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) STARLIGHT DANCER has faced tougher than these in all her 2023 starts. She should wake up dropping into Grassroots company and adding Lasix and she gets top billing here. (4) UNCONTROLLED jogged to break her maiden in a Grassroots race in London two starts back then she was driven conservatively last week. She gets Roy now and she should be more aggressive; using. (9) VIRTUAL KISS' 1:54 1/5 qualifier win suggests that a bounce-back effort is coming tonight. She is in with a shot. (6) MIST AMBER should close late again to take a small slice.

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Race 2: F&M 5YO and Younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(6) FRONT PAGE STORY fired a 26-flat kicker vs. Grand Circuit fillies and got nothing. She has a much better chance tonight. (4) MOLLOP HANOVER is another that tried the Grand Circuit with no success. She should improve and she would be no surprise in here. (8) FAVORITE BEACH comes off the best effort of her life and she is hard to leave off the Pick 5 despite drawing widest tonight. (3) TOTALLY RIGGED goes for the Cullens and adds Lasix. She should be in the exotics mix here.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2: 3YO PACING FILLIES

(1) CENTURY JAMILA is on a roll that isn't likely to be stopped here and she will be a Pick 5 single for me. (5) GODIVA SHADOW GIRL is interesting to me here moving into Beaton’s barn and picking up McNair to drive. I can see her crashing the exotics at a big price. (7) CHEDDA CHEDDA is better than she showed in her last start, and she should close for a good piece of this. (9) QUITE NICE is a good one to use on the bottom with all the shares she shows recently.

Race 4: NW $4,000 L5 or $8,100 L8 - Pick 4

(5) SHES BEER LEAGUE steps up on paper here, but the sharp horse that beat her last week would likely be favored in this field. She gets top billing vs. these. (7) FLYING FORMATION is another that was beaten by a razor-sharp horse, and he should be a threat in here likely racing close to the front again. (1) MAGIC WANDA took a win at Flamboro, and she likely finishes on the edges in here. (4) KEVIN ANTHONY should be passing some of these late and he can be in the exotics.

Race 5: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2: 3YO PACING FILLIES

(10) LADYCORONA had a very tough trip in London, and she hung around for a share. She rates highly here, and the sick scratch combined with post 10 should ensure that she offers a good price. (4) KUPER TROOPER was never chasing down a long-gone winner. Her style plays better at Mohawk Park, and she should be a big threat tonight. (3) MYSTIC WILD ROSE got a clean line and fired a fast kicker last week. She is another to consider for multi-race tickets. (6) PINK MONSTER draws well, and she is around the money every start. She's a great one to use underneath.

Race 6: F&M 5YO and Younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO claiming $50,000 - Pick 5

I thought (8) SWEET AMIRA raced really well in her Fan Hanover elimination considering she got an impossible trip. She should mow this group down in the lane. (2) BIG BIG PLANS drops out of the Golds, and she should be a speed threat here; Exacta factor. (7) ACRIMONY chased an uncatchable 1 to 2 shot home last week and she can come on late for another share here. (1) KCS STARLITE will likely pass a few of these late. I'll use her on the bottom.

Race 7: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2: 3YO PACING FILLIES

A 25 4/5 kicker could only get (6) IMA DOLL a 5th-place check last week. This field looks easier, and she should be more aggressive; slight nod. (4) PROVE EM WRONG has been better at three and she is 1 for 1 in Grassroots races. She has shown that she can take a lot of air and she should be right there tonight. (9) DAKOTA SHADOW is interesting because she showed promise in her only start; price look. (5) MENDING FENCES should sit a trip racing near the front and take a share.

Race 8: 5YO and Younger NW $15,500 LT - Pick 4

(7) CANCUN KAI switched drivers to Macdonald and jogged in his second start and he is the one to beat here. (1) D A HOME STRETCH paced faster than the choice but I’m not sure that means he beat him tonight. The choice has upside and could be much faster tonight. (3) BIG DREAM FELLA will likely find a helmet to follow this time and that gives him a chance to take a good share. (4) BROOKDALE JOHNNY can close for a slice in this spot.

Race 9: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2: 3YO PACING FILLIES

(3) MOONSTRUCK got an impossible trip in London and she still only missed by a length. I'll give her a slight nod over (5) TWIN DELIGHT who tuned up for this Grassroots leg with a good 2nd last week. (1) ELISES DELIGHT flies home every week. She could give the top two choices a scare if she is in range at the 3/4 pole; using. (4) OH GOUDA has a strong record facing easier than these so far this year. I see her taking a small slice this time.

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Race 10: ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 2: 3YO PACING FILLIES

(7) TALK CURDY TO ME got a good trip last week but she had the tall task of trying to pass two rivals in a 26 4/5 closing 1/4. She gained ground but the top two were simply sprinting too fast. She stacks up well vs. these Grassroots fillies; top call. (5) SUNBURNT figures to be a threat by default here because she gets away from Century Jamila who has been beating her regularly. (9) YS POISSON DAVRIL has two decent efforts since shipping west. She could be sitting on a big effort here; price look. (1) BETTOR CALL MOM raced okay in Gold company but she is still winless, and I don't love the rail post for her. Thinking she will get overbet here, I will play to beat her.

Race 11: F&M NW $8,000 L5 or NW $18,100 L8 AE: OPT CLM $45,000 or starters for a purse of $12K L3

(4) SO FRISKY was a strong winner last time she raced at this level, and she comes in sharp having won in the top class at Grand River last Monday. She should be tough in here. (1) BETTER BE DONNA N also won last time she raced this low. I can see these two mares battling for the win tonight. (9) SNOW SHARK should get a strong pace to close into tonight and I see her coming on late to land in the Tri. (6) LITTLEBEARCAT is a win machine that is capable vs. these but based on her two qualifiers she will likely need a race or two before reaching peak form. I'll use her underneath. (10) MAJOR LEAGUE N only knows one way and she will lead for as far as she can. I don't see her lasting for more than a small slice.