Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 6/14

Top Pick Stats: 303 - 906 / $1699.70 (-$112.30)

Best Bets: 48 - 85 / $156.20 (-$13.80)

Spot Plays: 15 - 82 / $167.70 (+$3.70)

Best Bet: SADDLEBAGS (1ST)

Spot Play: TALISMANO (6TH)

Early Pick 5: 2/2,5,7/3,4/6,8,9/2,6,9 = $10.80

Late Pick 5: 3,7,9/6/3,6/2,3,4/3,4,7 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 6,8,9/2,6,9/3,7,9/6 = $5.40

Late Pick 4: 6/3,6/2,3,4/3,4,7 = $3.60

Race 1: 2YO fillies NW1 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) SADDLEBAGS was one of the more impressive qualifying winners last week on a morning where the track wasn’t yielding fast times, partially due to a strong headwind in the stretch. She gets top billing at first asking here and she will be a single for me. (3) STYLISH STELLA was a decent 2nd to the choice but no match late in the mile. I see her completing the Exacta. $14,000 London sale but (1) DARLENES ANGEL is the first foal out of a dam that made one start and was well beaten, but this filly qualified fast enough in Ottawa to suggest that she can take a share on debut. (7) BARONESS has two qualifiers under her belt, and she finished well in both. She should be in the exotics mix.

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Race 2: F&M 4YO and younger NW $15,000 LT

(2) KISS MY CHEEK was 2nd to a blowout winner that has already come back to beat better from post 10 and she gets the nod coming out of that key race. (7) DISTANT LOVER chased a filly home that is exceptionally sharp right now and I won’t hold too much against her because she couldn’t get by off a pocket trip. She would be no surprise here. (5) WICKED WEATHER got cooked in a Grassroots race and the winner of that race has come back to win impressively, edging Distant Lover. She should be one of the main contenders in here; using. (1) SEA GLASS exits the same race as the choice where nothing went right for her. She gets Roy back now and I can see her rebounding with a much better effort tonight; using underneath.

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Race 3: F&M NW $8,000 L5 or $13,250 L7 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 OR NW 7 LT

(4) RAPTORS WON gets Filion who has won with her already this year and he was aggressive with her in that winning mile. She may go right down the road here on the class drop. (3) GIAS SURREAL flashed big speed last week and she is another dropper that rates highly here. She is the other one that I’ll use on multi race tickets. (6) IMA DOLL has taken several shares against tougher, and she fits well here but I prefer to use her underneath. (1) ELLAS REASON A will likely follow along again and stay for a share.

Race 4: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT - Pick 4

(9) HOW MUCH came off a blowout win and produced a strong effort to win from post 10, showing grit after enduring a tough first-over trip. I’ll call her to notch the threepeat. (8) GREATEST PLEASURE was gaining late when 5th to the choice last week and she could be a threat here if she is put into the race. Her 1:52-flat front end Grassroots score two starts back shows that she is obviously capable. (6) BLAZING BELLE smoked maidens, and it’s notable that McNair stuck with her over the choice. She is another logical contender here but I doubt she can cut a 57 opening 1/2 again without being challenged. (7) TRIBAL DANCER raced better last time but this is likely a tune up for the next Grassroots start. A small share is likely for her tonight.

Race 5: F&M 5YO and younger winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT

(9) BONITAS BEST BET comes off a gritty win at this level and she is obviously razor sharp and another aggressive steer is likely; call to repeat. (2) LIGHTNING LIZZIE was 3rd when facing the best sophomore pacing fillies in the country. Her late rally might get the job done tonight; using. (6) CAPYTREACH was over her head racing against Grand Circuit mares. She has a better shot here and McNair sticks with her. (7) RESILIENCE was raced more aggressively as expected in her second start and she stayed for a share in a fast race. She should be part of the exotics.

Race 6: NW $20,000 in 2023/24 or N/A $1,000 P/S in 2023/24 (Min. 10 starts) - Pick 5

(7) TALISMANO jogged last time he raced at this level and Borth is sure to put him in play tonight; top call. (3) ESPLOSIONE was a close second in a better field than tonight’s two starts back then he blew up at the start last time. He can be right there if he stays flat tonight. (9) HEY RALPHIE was wide for most of the second 1/2 last week and he kept coming. Post 9 is tricky for him, but he could do if he can sneak into contention by the time they reach the 3/4 pole. (10) ROSE RUN WHY NOT is another that had a good race two starts back then broke last week. She has the speed to overcome the 10-hole and land a share if she stays flat.

Race 7: F&M 4YO and younger NW $15,000 LT - Pick 4

(6) WE BELIEVIN was terrific in victory last week, battling a rival that was parked a long way then repelling the pocket sitter in the lane. She is improving weekly it seems and a threepeat looms here. (2) WICKED LEADER got embroiled in a third 1/4 war with How Much and that was a battle she wasn’t going to win but she did well to be beaten by only 1 1/4 lengths. She should be an Exacta factor tonight. (8) QUITE BEACHY closed a bit of ground on the choice last week and I can see her cracking the exotics here. (1) SUNTAN CITY likely sits and rallies for a slice in this spot.

Race 8: 4YO and younger winners of 2 (F&M3) but not more than 4 (F&M5) or $45,000 LT

(6) TACTICAL STRIKE just jogged in fast time, and I’ll side with her to repeat because there may be questions about intent with some of her stakes-calibre rivals, but she will be going for it from the outset. (3) WAYS N MEANS was a good 2nd to Griff in Gold action, and he took his lifetime mark racing at this level two starts back. He is an obvious threat. (4) DRAWN IMPRESSION oozes class, but this race is no gimme when she is facing two rivals that are trotting 1:53 miles. I’ll play to beat her here in a race she doesn’t need to win. (2) MASS MARKET produced a strong late rally last time and he should close for a share here, too.

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Race 9: F&M NW $8,000 L5 or $13,250 L7 or NW 7 LT AE: OPT CLM $50,000 or starters for a purse of $12K or less L3

(4) SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA moved first up last week but the eventual winner was popping pocket to pass the tired leader and get the jump. There are no Major Leagues in here so tonight’s pace and flow will likely be more typical. (2) SETTN A PRECEDENT tried the Roses Are Red elimination after missing three weeks. That was not a recipe for success. She has a better chance in here. (3) FRONT PAGE STORY raced better on 5/31 when she was part of a hot early pace. She has the speed and class to beat these on her best day; using. (7) BETTER BE DONNA N will likely show speed this time starting from the widest post in a smaller field. She should stick around for a share.

Race 10: F&M NW $4,000 L5 or $13,750 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(3) WATCH HER DEWITT jumps up in class but this doesn’t look like a strong field, and she has been razor sharp for a barn that is running hot. I’ll stick with her. (4) CHELSIS CHOICE is improving, and she had no chance last week in a race where the closers were taken out of it by the wild pace cut by a leader that stopped at the 3/4 pole. I can see her rallying for a win here and she is the other one that I’ll use on late multi-race tickets. (7) JM BETONSIX drops, and she should be good for a share at this level. (1) TWIN B TIPSTER is another dropper that figures to be in the exotics mix. I don’t love the rail draw for her and I imagine she will close too late while finishing on the fringes. (10) SWEET LOVING was forced into the pocket early by the choice last week and she couldn’t gain late. She moves into the same barn as the choice now and I think she sits and rallies this time.