Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 5/17

Top Pick Stats: 245 - 750 / $1246.40 (-$253.60)

Best Bets: 41 - 70 / $134.20 (-$5.80)

Spot Plays: 11 - 68 / $65.40 (-$70.20)

Best Bet: NEED TO BREATHE (11TH)

Spot Play: BETTORSTOPMENOW (8TH)

Early Pick 5: 4,9,10/3,4,5/3,4/7,8/2,4,8 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 7,10/3,4/3,8/2,5,9/2,7 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 7,8/2,4,8/7,10/3,4 = $4.80

Late Pick 4: 3,8/2,5,9/2,7/5 = $2.40

Race 1: 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(4) LOU GRANT paced a nice qualifying mile on 5/3 that featured an uncovered back 1/2 in 55-flat. He has a good shot to get his maiden win here. (8) NATURALBORN LEADER was perfectly driven to score in his debut by Macdonald and he can be better here with that experience under his belt. He is an obvious contender that is hard to leave off early Pick 5 tickets. (10) CENTURY KOMODO was fast at two and he has a big late kick. If he is in striking range at the 3/4 pole, look out. (5) JIMMY WHISPERS, winner of two of his last four, comes off a fast win at Flamboro and he can share here.

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Race 2: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(5) REIGNING JADE was given an easy trip in her sophomore debut, but she paced a 53 2/5 back 1/2 which should have her primed for a more aggressive effort here starting from a better post; top call. (4) BETTERWITHGLASSES will rightfully take a lot of action here having faced the top three-year-old pacing fillies in the country in the SBOA stakes and she is the one to beat. (3) CATCH MY BREATH is another exiting the SBOA that is sure to improve vs. these and she is in the exotic mix at a minimum. (8) WICKED LEADER is faster at three and she can close for a share here.

Race 3: FILLIES AND MARES PREFERRED

(4) SILVER LABEL got the trip last week to eke out a narrow win, but she will likely be tighter here in this second start back and she is a decent bet to double up. The 2023 Canadian Horse of the Year (3) SYLVIA HANOVER is no doubt staked to everything and while she is capable, she certainly doesn’t have to win here. I would be careful to not take a short price. (5) TELLS ON A ROLL was good in defeat last week, making a couple of moves and coming up just short. She remains a viable option. (2) PROHIBITION LEGAL was blocked late in the lane last week or she would have finished in the money. You could land on worse horses that will likely be around 10 to 1 tonight.

Race 4: F&M NW $8,000 L5 or $17,850 L8 AE: NW4 LT - Pick 4

(8) FRONT PAGE STORY had a decent sophomore season racing in the shadow of stablemate Sylvia Hanover and this looks like a good spot to kick off her 2024 campaign; top call. (7) SHOOT THE WHISKEY figures to be much better here dropping several class levels and Cullen will almost surely fire her off the gate tonight; using. (5) DUCHENNE gets needed post relief here making her second start at this level after dropping in class. She should be in the exotics mix. (2) J ONE TWENTY has been on fire racing in London but these are tougher and I’ll use her underneath.

Race 5: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

(2) RIGHT MATCH had no chance racing against killers in the SBOA and starting from post 10. She should be tough in this NW2 tilt getting post relief. (4) GREATEST PLEASURE paced a sub-53 back 1/2 in her sophomore debut and she will likely get put into the race this time; using. (8) VAL VICTORIAN took all the action last week and she crushed. She could be the one to catch here as she seeks the repeat score. (1) PASTA DELIGHT produced a big back 1/2 to take her seasonal debut and Beaton has been sending them ready. She isn’t out of this.

Race 6: F&M 4YO and younger NW $15,000 LT - Pick 5

(7) THIS MAGIC MOMENT stepped up to this level and jogged from post 10. She gets the call to notch the threepeat here. (10) WE MEET AGAIN came out for her sophomore debut and fired a huge winning mile in fast time in Pennsylvania. She moves into trainer Brethour’s barn and she would be no surprise here. (6) KISS MY CHEEK raced well at a price in defeat to the choice and she should be good for another share here starting from the best post. (4) PREMIER HEIRESS can close for another slice here. She is a good one to use on the bottom.

Race 7: NW $2,000 L3 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(3) EPIC DREAMER went a huge trip in defeat when claimed, fighting off several challenges before getting picked off late. He should be tough to beat here moving into Moreau’s barn and retaining the leading driver. (4) CHULO drops again after being mildly driven as the 4 to 5 chalk. He is the obvious threat to the choice. (7) CADILLAC, a winner at this level two starts back, should improve enough to take a share here. (6) THE LIONKING AS qualified okay for this 2024 debut and he will likely show speed then stick around for a share here.

Race 8: 3YO colts and geldings NW $5,000 LT - Pick 4

(3) BETTORSTOPMENOW is one I have been waiting to com back off his debut race where he had an impossible trip and had the most live legs when the horses hit the wire. I think we see a much different drive and trip tonight and he gets top billing. (8) WALLACE HARTLEY will take action based on his decent debut trip and he will likely be the main threat to the choice here. He’s the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. (7) ALWAYS B MELMAN finished ahead of the choice in that race but he got a much better trip. He is a threat but he might be an underlay tonight. (4) VINCENDI BLUE CHIP continues to burn money and he will be a bet against for me again this week.

Race 9: NW $20,000 in 2023/24 or N/A $1,000 P/S in 2023/24 (Min. 10 starts)

(5) ER NORMA was an unlucky loser last week. She was primed to win second over when the leader broke coming off the last turn which allowed the eventual winner to slip up the inside and take a narrow victory. This mare looks best here and she gets the nod. (2) MY HOLY MOLEY made a nice late charge to grab third in the same race and he can be a late threat here; using. (9) FEEL THE FORCE faltered late as the odds-on choice last week but he still figures as a threat facing mostly the same field. (8) ANGEL OF MY DREAMS broke on the lead last week. I think she sits and rallies now.

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Race 10: F&M NW $15,000 L5 or $29,500 L10 AE: NW $15,000 in 2024 (Min. 10 starts)

(7) CAVIAR N CRACKERS has been airborne in the lane in her last two starts and the barn has been running well lately. I’ll give her the call to repeat in a spot where she should offer another good price. (2) GOUDAWON is the obvious threat taking a class plunge and getting on a 7-day rotation tonight for her third start of the year. (6) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL raced decently first up last week. I think she looks for cover this time and rallies late for a share. (3) SNOW SHARK is another that will likely rally late for a minor award.

Race 11: F&M NW $1,550 L3 AE: N/A $1,210 P/S in 2024 (Min. 2 starts)

Simply put, this is a field that (5) NEED TO BREATHE smokes on her best day. Coming in fresh off a strong qualifying effort, I expect her to crush these. (1) CHELSIS CHOICE was a winner two starts back then she faced mares that were too tough for her. She can be an Exacta factor here. (2) BETTORS PUNCH is another dropper that figures to improve enough at this level to be an exotics factor. (9) MYSTIC WILD ROSE first race back was good, but she is stuck on the far outside here. A small share is likely for her. (3) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY never gets bet but she can sneak into the exotics as she showed last week; using underneath.