Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 4/12

Top Pick Stats: 162 - 533 / $790.90 (-$271.30)

Best Bets: 27 - 50 / $84.10 (-$15.90)

Spot Plays: 8 - 49 / $35.10 (-$63.90)

Best Bet: CHALK HANOVER (8TH)

Spot Play: HAPPY LITTLE LILL (1ST)

Early Pick 5: 3,4/4/1,5/4,7/4,5,7,9 = $6.40

Late Pick 5: 2,4,6/3,9/3/1,2/4 = $2.40

Early Pick 4: 4,7/4,5,7,9/2,4,6/3,9 = $9.60

Late Pick 4: 3/1,2/4/2,3,4,6,9 = $2.00

Race 1: F&M 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(3) HAPPY LITTLE LILL is a Bettors Delight debutante trained by veteran conditioner Brethour who has been a killer with first timers so far this year. On blind faith alone based on that recent trend, she gets top billing here. (4) MIKIS DUCHESS was behind the eight ball trying to close into a 28 1/5 kicker in her sophomore debut and she should be the one to fear here. (5) RAZZIN JAZZ is one of two in here that have won twice. She qualified well enough to be an exotics player here. (7) JACINDA is likely to take another slice here.

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Race 2: ONTARIO SIRED SPRING SERIES TROT: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS, NW $30,000 IN 2023 1st Leg

(4) CONVOY HALL stands out here, but he will go off at 1 to 9 again. He is impossible to go against in this spot. (3) THE CANAM BANKER was a distant 2nd to the choice last week and he will likely complete the Exacta again. (1) STEAMER has a good late kick on his best day. He can close for a slice. (6) SLAYIN THEDAY AWAY brings solid form in from Flamboro Downs and I can see him landing in the bottom of the exotics here.

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Race 3: ONTARIO SIRED SPRING SERIES PACE: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS, NW $30,000 IN 2023. 1st Leg

Undefeated (1) FOUR BY FOUR dropped three seconds when he crushed in his second start, and he is the one to beat here. (5) MAX PATRICK likely needed his sophomore debut. He has the speed to contend here, and he should be much tighter; price look for the early Pick 5. (8) MANHAWK improved in his past two starts and Borth will likely put him into play early and get positioned near the front; exotics factor. (3) TAMWORTH BOY, no worse than 2nd in all three of his starts was Jamieson’s choice over Manhawk, but I prefer to use him on the bottom here.

Race 4: NW $20,000 in 2023/24 or N/A $1,000 P/S in 2023/24 - Pick 4

(7) ER NORMA raced well at this level last week and was unlucky to get beat by a pylon skimmer. She gets top billing here. (4) ROYAL LEAF gets Macdonald back tonight and last time they paired up, the result was a crushing 10-length win at this level. He’s hard to leave out, considering. (10) TYMAL TAROT has the gate speed to get position early and he is worth a price look for the exotics. (6) NO ANGEL LIKE ME can take a small slice if she stays flat this time.

Race 5: F&M that have started for a purse of $9,000 or less in 1 of L4 AE: NW $8,450 L10

(7) DOLLYDAYDREAM got bet like she couldn’t lose last week but she got a wild trip that was impossible to overcome. Her price increases now and I’ll take a price swing with her. (5) BIG DIAMOND comes off a strong effort and Roy chose her over the choice. She is hard to leave off multi-race tickets in this field. (4) FIRE SHINE was a willing 4th racing against tougher than these and she is another possibility for multi-race tickets. (9) LITTLEBEARCAT gets McNair and she is capable off popping at this level with the right trip. She is yet another possibility in a race where it makes sense to spread.

Race 6: CANADIAN SIRED GRADUATE SERIES TROT: CANADIAN SIRED 4 YEAR OLDS 1st Leg - Pick 5

(4) GHOSTLY CASPER and (2) TUSCAN PRINCE stick out here as the class of this field. Nod goes to the former who dominated the latter when they last met in the OSS Superfinal last fall. (6) LIKE CHAOS couldn’t be much sharper and there are no questions about his intent whereas one or both top two choices may get raced conservatively coming off the shelf. I’ll use him as a price possibility on multi-race tickets. (7) BARONESS HILL accumulated close to $300K in earnings winning only once last year by staying flat and getting shares in stakes. She is more likely to take a share than a win racing against the boys here.

Race 7: NW $4,500 L5 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(8) MISTER MAGIC showed his typical grit digging in to shrug off a final turn challenger last week and he gets the call to repeat here facing similar. (9) EPIC DREAMER raced well for Macdonald last week and he sticks with him here. He is the other one that I’ll use on multi-race tickets. This should be an easier spot for (7) CLASSIC MAGIC, who shows a sharp win only three starts back. He should take a share vs. these. (4) CADILLAC got the best trip to score the upset last week over easier than he faces here; small share predicted.

Race 8: ONTARIO SIRED SPRING SERIES PACE: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS, NW $30,000 IN 2023 1st Leg - Pick 4

(3) CHALK HANOVER was ready coming off the shelf and he produced a big first-over mile to get the job done. He will be a single for me tonight. (2) GIGITYGIGITYGIGTY took unexpected support at the windows last week then he raced back to his March 8th qualifier to lead all the way. I think he’ll have trouble holding the choice off tonight, but he can complete the Exacta. (5) MR ANDREYCHUK was intent on making front from the rail last week and that may have cost him late in the mile. He can sit another trip and land in the tri here. (7) JMR SPEAK AWAY was cleverly driven to win last week, making a quick move around some confusion to take a stranglehold on the race. I see him as a fringe player vs. these.

Race 9: CANADIAN SIRED GRADUATE SERIES PACE: CANADIAN SIRED 4 YEAR OLD MARES 1st Leg

(2) TALK CURDY TO ME got the perfect tightener for this series last week when narrowly beaten in a sub-1:52 mile after doing all the work; top call. (1) POWDER PLAY keeps improving and she wasn’t far behind So Much More last time. She would be no surprise here. (5) MIST AMBER passes horses every week, but the short field likely works against her tonight as there probably won’t be much flow. I’ll use her underneath. (4) CHEESY SMILE fits okay in this series but she has missed more than a month. She will likely close late and land in the bottom of the Tri or Super.

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Race 10: ONTARIO SIRED SPRING SERIES PACE: ONTARIO SIRED 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS, NW $30,000 IN 2023. 1st Leg

(4) WARRAWEEFORLAURA has improved quickly, and he has looked great winning two in a row. He is the one to beat here. (7) SAILORS SHADOW is capable of better than he showed last week from post 10 and he could add some value to the Exacta here. (8) SOUTHWIND CIRCUIT looks well prepped for this sophomore debut, but I’ll use him underneath starting from the widest post. (6) PORTERS MAN typically has a good late kick. He can be part of the Tri or Super here.

Race 11: F&M NW $4,550 L5 or $9,250 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(4) GIMMIE A CORONA was airborne late in the mile last week, but she had too far to come. Moving closer to the middle of the gate should help her get better position early in this mile; top call. (3) FLIGHT CREW N drops to the level where she last won, and she figures to be the main threat here racing from close range; using. (6) JKS ROLLIN BABY is another dropper that should be heard from in this spot and another that is in with a chance. (2) TWIN B TIPSTER draws much better here and she hasn’t been used much recently; price look for the late Pick 4. (9) SPLASH OF PINK is capable if there is a late pace meltdown. This is a good race to spread.