Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 2/16

Top Pick Stats: 74 - 250 / $369.40 (-$130.60)

Best Bets: 13 - 23 / $39.60 (-$6.40)

Spot Plays: 2 - 23 / $6.50 (-$39.50)

Best Bet: HONEY LOVE (4TH)

Spot Play: FEEL ITINYOURHANDS (9TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,2,3/2,4,8/1,2/1/2,3,5,8 = $14.40

Late Pick 5: 2,5/2,5/2,4,8/2,5,7/5,6 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 1/2,3,5,8/2.5/2,5 = $3.20

Late Pick 4: 2,4,8/2,5,7/5,6/3,5,6 = $10,80

Race 1: F&M winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO CLM $50,000 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(2) ETHEL was impressive pacing a 54-flat back 1/2 and passing them all last week. Now she gets a better post, and she will likely get positioned closer to the front early in this mile; call to repeat. (3) SPLASH OF PINK didn’t look 100% sound as she put in some steps in a couple of spots. She eventually got picked off by the steamrolling Ethel late in the mile. She should be viewed in the post parade and score down here before plunging. Last time Macdonald drove (1) THE IDEAL HUNTRESS, she was a winner. This isn’t a bad spot for her, and she is worth a look making her 2024 debut. (7) ONLYTHEGOODDIYOUNG is in great form and driver Jones has been a good partner for her. She is capable of bettering this placing.

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Race 2: 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT

(8) DANCE ON THE MOON had no shot from post 10 last time but he shows some previous lines that can be good enough to beat these. I’ll gamble that in this smaller field he gets sent from the wide post this time instead of dropping back to last. Debutante (4) PURELY WICKED showed enough in his lone qualifier to suggest that he can be a threat at first asking vs. this group; using. (2) SAILORS SHADOW comes off a good first up effort and he is another in with a shot in a race with no standout. (7) JO PAS LAZARUS has been flashing speed at the 'B' tracks. He can get early position here and stay for a share.

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Race 3: F&M NW $4,100 L5 or $9,200 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(1) NEED TO BREATHE only raced this low once, last November, and she was a comfortable winner that night. She gets top billing here on the class drop. (2) WESTERN WISH is another dropper that should go better here but she could provide the perfect target for the choice; Exacta factor. (5) MY HUNGRY GIRL also drops but this is no easy spot facing the top two choices. I’ll use her underneath. (6) SAUBLE AMBER raced okay off the Moreau claim. She can land in the bottom of the exotics again.

Race 4: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT - Pick 4

(1) HONEY LOVE jogged at this level three starts back before trying tougher in the Blizzard series. She is the clear mare to beat here and a single for me. (4) BETH raced well in narrow defeat in her 2024 debut, and she could be even sharper now. She can complete the Exacta. (6) STAY CLASSY was a sharp maiden breaker last week and she can show speed here and stick around for a decent share. (10) WILDCAT LISA passed them after starting from this post last week but it’s unlikely she can do that twice in a row. I’ll use her on the bottom of the exotics here.

Race 5: NW $2,040 L3 AE: OPT CLM $20,000

(3) JAYPORT ROADUNNER took checks in two straight from bad posts now he gets needed post relief. He can beat this group if he gets a decent trip. (8) PHEONIX won last time he raced this low four starts back and he should be right there tonight on the class drop; using. (5) SHESTHELUCKYONE has faced better for months, and she should improve by default on the drop here. She is another to consider using in multi-race tickets. (2) EZRA tried a wide move last week that wasn’t going to work in an accelerating late pace. He can take a share here.

Race 6: BLIZZARD PACING SERIES FINAL - Pick 5

Great matchup here between two mares that haven’t lost in this series, (2) ANGOSTURA HANOVER and unbeaten (5) MARGOSGOTTHECARGO. I think the former is a bit better, but I wouldn’t be surprised to be proven wrong. (6) BETTERNOTMACHME took shares in the first two legs, and she can be part of the exotics again. (1) TRUE THAT strikes me as one that will sit an inside trip and land in the Tri or Super.

Race 7: NW $4.500 L5 or $9,900 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(2) MISTER MAGIC got J Mac back and he crushed last week. The leading driver sticks with him, and I will, too. (5) WARRAWEE XALT should improve by default facing easier here and I imagine he will get a much more aggressive steer. He is the other one that I’ll use in the multis. (6) GRATEFUL, a distant 2nd to the choice last week, is in decent form and he should be in the exotics mix again. (1) HEY RALPHIE will likely be passing horses late in the mile again. He is a good one to use on the bottom.

Race 8: 4YO and younger NW1 or $7,500 LT - Pick 4

(2) EASY CHEESY is the second foal out of his dam that is also sired by Betterthancheddar. The first one, Wisdom Tree, won 22 times, earned $687K and took a mark of 1:49 1/5. I’ll take a stab with this filly who debuts vs. the boys in a race that looks wide-open. (8) BRIGUS paced a nice back 1/2 in her Mohawk Park debut and Macdonald sticks with her. She could do here if she gets put into the race earlier. (4) JMR SPEAK AWAY has been closing well and his late speed should play well in here; using. (6) YANKEE CLOUT comes off a good closing effort, but he is 0 for 33 with 17 slices. He closed as the 7 to 5 chalk last week. What price would you take here?

Race 9: F&M that have started for a purse of $9K or less in 1 of L4

(2) FEEL ITINYOURHANDS gets a massive driver change here and with that she will likely take a lot of action, but I’ll give her the nod. This is a good spot for (5) WILDCAT DELIGHT, who has been facing the best mares at London. She would be no surprise in this spot. (7) PLAYA DUHARAS exits some tough claimers, and she is another that fits well here. McNair will likely put her into play leaving the gate and she is in with a decent chance. (4) RED DIRT HOT SHOT paced a 27 2/5 kicker last week and she should close for a share here.

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Race 10: NW $20,500 in 2023/24 or not averaging $1,000 per start in 2023/24 (Min. 10 starts)

(5) MAGNIFICENT SEVEN closed nicely at this level last week but he had too far to come, and he couldn’t catch the loose leader. He looks good vs. these. (6) TALISMANO was a winner last time he raced at this level, and he should get put into action leaving the gate tonight. He is the other one that I’ll use on late multi-race tickets. (3) CADILLAC missed some time due to sickness, but his most recent start was good at this level, and he can take a share here. (2) ROYAL LEAF can sit another following trip and take a small slice.

Race 11: F&M NW $8,000 L5 or $14,250 L8 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: NW6 LT

(3) SNOW SHARK closed well from a tough spot in this class last week now she gets a better post and Cullen back in the bike; top call. (6) JM BETONSIX produced speed both early and late in that mile when finishing a neck ahead of the choice and she draws best again. She should be the main threat. (5) CHIEFS DREAM GIRL never really got involved last week. She is capable of better, and she will offer a big price as is typical with her. She’s worth a look for the late multis. (8) TWO PISTOL ANNIE steps up because she keeps finishing 2nd and earning money. She is always in the thick of it and is a good one to use underneath. (7) RAPTORS WON was game in victory now she faces tougher; small share predicted.