Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 1/19

Top Pick Stats: 30 - 85 / $155.60 (-$14.40)

Best Bets: 5 - 8 / $15.30 (-$0.70)

Spot Plays: 0 - 8 / $0 (-$16.00)

Best Bet: MARGOSGOTTHECARGO (7TH)

Spot Play: MEADOWBRANCH NOBLE (6TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,4,7/2,8/3,5,7/6,9/1,2,8 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 3,4,7/8/2,4,7/7,8/2,3,7 = $10.80

Early Pick 4: 6,9/1,2,8/3,4,7/8 = $3.60

Late Pick 4: 7,8/2,3,7/6,7/2,4,5,10 = $9.60

Race 1: F&M that have started for a purse of $9,000 or less in 1 of L3 **Gtd. $100,000 Pick 5**

(7) COZEY UP did all the work at this level last week and just got picked off late. I can see this race coming down to her and (1) TWO PISTOL ANNIE, who challenged the choice first up and was less then 1/2-length behind her at the wire. This should be an easier spot for (4) JKS ROLLIN BABY, and she is one to consider at a price for the $100K guaranteed Pick 5. (6) BUTTERFLY KISSES should be able to close for a spot in the exotics in this spot.

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Race 2: NW $5,000 L5 or $13,550 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(2) MISTER MAGIC produced a big late kick to get the job done last time and he can probably work out a similar mid pack stalking trip here starting from the inside; call to repeat. (8) DREAM NATION produced his best mile since 2022 last time and he has a shot to lead all the way vs. these; using. (1) BETTINA HANOVER jogged but she is in tougher now. I think she takes a small slice here. (7) VILLEFRANCHE AS got a great following trip last time, but she didn’t have much punch in the lane. I’ll use her on the bottom here.

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Race 3: NW $5,000 L5 or $16,550 L5 AE: starters for a purse of $11K or less L2

(3) IN THE MOOD gets a few factors swinging her way tonight: she gets a better post, J Mac in the bike, and a pace scenario that should play to a closer; top call. (5) GIAS SURREAL could land in the pocket and that might be the best place to be following a one-dimensional pacesetter that will last to mid stretch. She is a must-use for me. (7) SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA is another closer that should be passing rivals late. She’s worth a price look for the early Pick 5. You know that (6) MAJOR LEAGUE N will be on the engine from the outset, but I don’t see her lasting for more than a slice here.

Race 4: NW $20,000 in 2023-24 AE: N/A $1,000 per start in 2023-24 (Min. 10 starts) - Pick 4

This looks like a good spot for (9) TYMAL TAROT who has improved his form recently and he should get an aggressive steer from Hudon starting from a wide post; top call. (6) SO NOT COOL gets needed class relief here and he is in with a good shot vs. these; using. (7) KATKIN MORGAN raced well in defeat last time and she trotted a nice kicker. She is the third one to consider for early multi-race tickets. (3) HESOHOT HANOVER should pass some of these late. He is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 5: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT

Wide-open race here to complete the early Pick 5. (1) ROYAL TELL smoked NW2 at Flamboro and she now gets a driver upgrade to Cullen tackling NW2. I’ll take a price swing with her in a race where it’s hard to love any of them. (8) TEAM COLORS was 0 for 19 last year but she took 11 slices, and she seems to fit well here moving to Montini’s barn and getting Macdonald in the bike. She should be a threat in her local debut. (2) TRUE THAT chased an unyielding leader that sped away in the lane and took a new life’s mark. McNair sticks and she should get another trip racing close to the front; using. (3) WILDCAT HERA took a while to get going last week and she was live at the wire. I can see her being too far back again and closing late for a share; using underneath.

Race 6: NW $2,000 L3 AE: OPT CLM $20,000 - Pick 5

(7) MEADOWBRANCH NOBLE chased home a winner that has already come back to jog again vs. a better field and that was an improved effort. I’ll give him the nod here expecting another aggressive steer. (4) RIVERS comes off a failed first-over effort vs. better and he has a much better chance here dropped to the bottom conditioned level; using. (3) TANGLEWILD ROAD is another dropper that should improve in this spot, and I could see him passing them all late with the right setup. (1) PHEONIX is capable at this level, but he needs a clean line after breaking three times in a row. I’ll watch him this time.

Race 7: F&M 4YO and younger NW $15,000 LT

(8) MARGOSGOTTHECARGO parlayed an impressive debut win in Ottawa with an even more impressive one here and owner/trainer Moore now hands the lines to the leading driver. She is likely to notch the threepeat at a very short price. (2) SHOVANNA finished with good pace last week and she should be in the exotics mix in this spot. (1) PASS THE DREAM tried the front with no success last time. I think she sits and rallies again like she did here on 12/28. (5) THIRD TIME LUCKY got a good trip and converted now she tries better. I’ll use her on the bottom this time.

Race 8: F&M NW $8,000 L5 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 or NW $90,000 LT

(4) POWDER PLAY comes off a lifetime-best score and she gets the call to repeat despite facing tougher tonight. (7) J M BETONSIX is another coming off an impressive score and she should find a live helmet to follow tonight. She is capable of repeating with the right trip; using. (2) SETTN A PRECEDENT moves to the leading trainer and picks up the leading driver so sharp improvement is expected but I wonder if she might get over bet. She can win here but I wouldn’t take a short price. (3) TWIN B TIPSTER should sit and rally for a spot in the Tri or Super.

Race 9: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED HANDICAP. PP 1-6 DRAWN & PP 7-8 DRAWN - Pick 4

(7) SO MUCH MORE just keeps truckin’, and Macdonald has been a perfect partner for her. She has overcome wide posts before, and she gets the call to do it again tonight. (8) HUNTRESS was on the inside part of a wet track last time and that may not have been the best path late in that card. She figures to be the main threat here. (4) TELLS ON A ROLL got a beautiful trip and she followed the choice into the lane, but she couldn’t get past her. I see another slice for her here. (6) DABARNDAWGSWATCHIN isn’t in her best form right now, but she should still be part of the Super here.

Race 10: Horses that have started for a purse of $9,000 or less in 1 of L3

This is a good spot for (2) TYMAL RIGGS who improved in his second start back now lands in a spot where he should look to get more aggressive early; top call. (7) JAYPORT ROADRUNNER moves to a barn that has 9 Exacta finishes in 18 starts so far this year and he is worth using on late multi-race tickets in this spot coming off a start where he trotted a fast kicker. (3) IMPRESSIVE DUDE gets owner Roy in the bike here and he comes off a win vs. lesser. He will likely get position near the front early and trip out to take a share. (5) FLOYD THE FREAK will probably flash early speed and stick around for a share in this spot.

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Race 11: F&M NW $4,350 L5 AE: OPT CLM $25,000

(6) WESTERN WISH went too fast, too soon last week last time. A better rated mile likely gets her a win here. (7) THE TURNING POINT disappointed as the chalk but she could get a pocket trip following the choice here and that makes her a threat. (4) FREE TO BE ME almost blew up the tote board last time, capitalizing on a pace that fell apart late. She is in with a chance here but it’s unlikely she will get to close into a 29 3/5 kicker. I’d demand a price here. (8) SPORTS DUCHESS brings some good form with her from Flamboro Downs, and she gets Henry in the bike tonight. She has a shot at a price here.

Race 12: F&M, 5YO and younger, winners of 2 but not more than 4 or $45,000 LT AE: 4YO and 5YO CLM $50,000.

(5) ELISES DELIGHT made a middle move to the front in a fast opening 1/2, then was overtaken and she spent the rest of the mile chasing a rival that was pacing a lifetime-best mile. She was a clear 2nd, and she is the one to beat here. (10) ANGOSTURA HANOVER won last time J Mac drove and he returns to the bike here. She should offer a decent price from post 10 and she is capable vs. these; using. (2) VOOM VOOM steps up, but she is sharp, and she draws well again. She should be in the mix despite facing tougher. (4) SAUBLE AMBER is worth a look at a price drawing better tonight. She should be passing rivals late. (8) FEARLESS SHELIA should blast for position and stick around for a slice.