Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 11/5

Meet Stats: 331 - 976 / $1,763.10 (-$188.90)

Best Bets: 50 - 88 / $171.00 (-$6.00)

Spot Plays: 25 - 90 / $173.10 (-$4.00)

Best Bet: LORD ANTHONY (8TH)

Spot Play: VILLAGE JADE (4TH)

Early Pick 5: 1,3,5,6,8/1,5/1,4,6/3,6,7/2,7 = $36

Late Pick 5: 5,10/2,4,5/3,7/1,2/2,4,5,6 = $19.60

Early Pick 4: 3,6,7/2,7/5,10/2,4,5 = $36

Late Pick 4: 3,7/1,2/2,4,5,6/2,3,7 = $48

Race 1: Harvest Series 1st Leg for Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings **Guaranteed $100,000 Pick 5**

(5) HESINCONTROL has been facing better recently and I expect that driver Macarthur will get more aggressive with him in this first leg of a stakes series; top call. (1) TAKE A GAMBLE comes off a sharp effort in the slop and he is another that should be well-placed early in this mile. He should be the main danger. (3) NO BETTER JOY had little chance in his last two starts which may have just been primers for this stakes series. He has an upset chance tonight. (8) HIPPYJOHN blew up before the start racing in the slop at London. McNair sticks here, and I can see him landing in the Super.

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Race 2: Harvest Series 1st Leg for Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings

(5) CONTROL HEAVEN gets Roy back tonight after throwing in a clunker in the slop and he might be a bit of an overlay here. I'll give him the nod over (1) TWIN B FIGHTER comes off two terrific efforts and looks like the one to beat. (4) FOUR FINGER FLOYD was a real speedball at Rideau Carlton and he gets Henry here, who is the perfect driver for his style. He will be dangerous if he gets a breather, but I'm not sure he will get left alone on the lead for very long. (3) CODYS WATCHING is capable of taking a slice in this field.

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Race 3: Harvest Series 1st Leg for Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings

(4) MYSTIC should be happy to get away from Itstimetogohome who beat him twice in a row. He looks best here and he gets the nod. (6) DEAL WITH LUCUS has been sharp in every start at this track and he should be closing late again. He is the second of three that I'll use in the early Pick 5. (1) EMERALD WINGS is getting better each week with Macdonald at the reins it seems and he is another in with a good chance here. (8) THOMAS P TWO has been on fire at Flamboro Downs but this is much tougher and I see him hanging on for a small share vs. these.

Race 4: F&M 5YO and Younger NW4 or $50,000 LT AE: 3YO NW $5K L4 - Pick 4

(3) VILLAGE JADE was loaded in the lane last week and she didn't get room until it was almost too late, but she did get up. Had she got clearance sooner, she'd have won by a lot more; call to repeat. (6) JUST DAISY is sharp and fast and she should be a top contender here as she shoots for her 4th straight win; using. (7) MY MOTHER PEARL brings her big late brush every week and she is hard to toss because of that excellent late kick. (2) RACING FORTHE MARK is right there every week. She should be in the exotics mix again.

Race 5: F&M NW $6,100 L5 or $13,000 L10

(2) MARY KAT drops and gets Macdonald back and she should be a big threat likely racing out of the pocket which is from where she excels; top call. (7) LAURAS LOVE was a winner last time she raced this low, but she needed to find room in the lane and she found it just in time. I'll use her but I’m not sure I'd take a short win price. (5) NICE KITTY HANOVER is capable at this level but she has missed four weeks. I'll use her underneath. (1) MY BABY GIRL keeps getting hammered at the windows but she's another that I prefer to use on the bottom here.

Race 6: NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 - Pick 5

This race will likely come down to a battle between the two class droppers (10) ZIG ZAG and (5) HEAVENSDOR HANOVER. I'll side with the former who should offer the better price leaving from post 10, but I'll use both on multi-race tickets. (6) DARKANGELDESBOIS F gets Roy back and he drops to the bottom conditioned level here. I could see him landing in the exotics at a price. (1) HEAD TURNING JAG can enter contention for the Tri or Super dropping to the lowest level tonight.

Race 7: F&M 4YO and Younger NW3 or $30,000

(5) WITNESSINTHESHADOW couldn't flush any cover last week so she ended up racing uncovered when the pace picked up after the 3/4 pole. Closing in 27 4/5 could only get her fifth. From a much better post, I see McNair blasting tonight and possibly working out a perfect trip; top call. (2) ADASHIOUS HANOVER, like many horses this year, just races better with Macdonald in the bike and he returns here; using. (4) STATE OF MIND is right there every week it seems and she is the other logical multi-race option. (9) CONTROL THE THONG flew home to win last week but I prefer to use her underneath in this spot.

Race 8: Harvest Series 1st Leg for Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings - Pick 4

(7) LORD ANTHONY comes off a tough trip at Flamboro Downs which should set him up perfectly for this stakes series and Hensley will likely be looking to send him right down the road tonight; top call. (3) KOUNT BLASTER showed what he can do two starts back then he was given an easier trip last time. He could be a threat racing out of the pocket here and I'll use him on multi-race tickets. (6) MR CHARISMA is another who is capable of better and I see him taking a share here. (1) TWAIN SEELSTER got used up early in the mile last week racing off the claim, and I see him deploying a closing style tonight and taking a small share.

Race 9: Harvest Series 1st Leg for Ont. Sired 3YO Colts and Geldings

(1) HP RUNNING MASS got a clean line, raced well, and kicked home in 27 2/5, now he picks up the top driver. He should be tough if he stays flat tonight. (2) URNTROUBLE HANOVER perhaps was affected by the off track last week. His winning effort two starts back makes him a contender vs. these and he should offer a better price tonight; using. (7) ARLANDA got a good trip last week but she was outkicked very late by a sharp rival. She should get a piece of this. (8) BUCKYS ANGEL has been racing great at Flamboro. Give him a price look for the bottom of the exotics.

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Race 10: 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(5) CENTURY HEFNER produced a big late kick for Macdonald last week and I'll give him the nod here in a wide-open race. (2) DARK MOVES looks like the one that might get an early lead and control the pace in a race full of horses that don't typically leave hard; price look. (4) DATGUYNA GREENSUIT is a grinder that should be pressing an even pace this week and he is in with a chance vs. these. (6) GLOBAL CRUSH is another that will likely be leaving for position and he too has an upset chance tonight.

Race 11: F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $15,000 LT

(7) WRITE ONE made a big move at Flamboro Downs to win in her first start out of the Moreau barn and she should offer a good price in this spot; call to repeat. (2) AWESOME HILL raced well in defeat last week but she was circled late by a sharp winner. She is likely the one to beat here. (3) ROCKET GIRL had a nice return race and Young will likely keep her closer to the front tonight; using. (4) AILEY HANOVER and (1) LADY AKILA are both good ones to use in the bottom rungs of the Super and High-5.