Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 11/28

Top Pick Stats: 348/1013 (-$377.40)

Best Bets: 43/91 ($1.70); Spot Plays: 18/91 (-$57.90)

Best Bet: JOHNNY BUCKSHOT (Race 2)

Spot Play: MALONE (Race 5)

Early Pick-5: 4,5,6/5/1,3,6/3,7,10/8 $5.40

Late Pick-5: 1,6,7/6,10/8/2,6/5 $2.40

Race 1: NW $1,000 L4 OR $4,400 L8 STARTS (W/O $7,500 L8 N/E). AE: N/A $1,225 P/S IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $12,500. AE: MARES N/A $970 P/S L8.

(6) FABULOUS FREDDIE gets a needed drop in class after a few starts where he was never involved. I would expect him to be put into play tonight. (5) MYSTIC has wire-to-wire potential but is a horse that tends to come up short in the final eighth. He is another class dropper who should take some support. (4) SUSHI BAR has shown flashes in recent weeks when he minds his manners. Leading driver James Macdonald hops back in the bike and could get a little more out of him tonight.

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Race 2: POP UP SERIES: HORSES THAT STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST 3 STARTS AND NW $50,000 IN 2025. AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 1.

(5) JOHNNY BUCKSHOT is the obvious class of this group. He is likely to be the horse to catch when turning for home. I think he turns back all challengers. (1) ALLSTAR GOLDI comes off a solid win at Western Fair and is another who could step forward with J-Mac getting the assignment. She will add more value than (7) RADCLIFFE who looks second best on paper, and is likely to be forwardly placed despite him preferring to work from off the pace in most of his recent starts.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, NW $6,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: NW $55,000 IN 2025.

(6) SHES GOT IT ALL was left chasing tougher horses last week en route to earning a minor share. I would expect her to potentially be driven like the best horse in the race tonight. (3) ONE MORE BET held her own in the upper conditioned ranks when last seen here around the dog days of summer. She has had mixed results of late, but has also been facing some classy mares. (1) CENTURY JAMILA should no doubt step forward from her qualifier, but I don’t think it will be enough right away to get her in the winner’s circle. McNair getting in the bike will only lessen her price.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $9,000 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES.

(7) DREAMFAIR DIAMOND makes her career debut after just one strong morning prep. J-Mac gives her the nod; This Cattlewash progeny will be expected to perform right away. (3) RUNWAY DIVA made a strong move to get to the lead, but couldn’t quite sustain it all the way to the wire. She should continue to improve with more starts under her belt. (10) D A BLACK BEAUTY looks to have plenty of ability, but now has to maneuver the high draw, and will need to mind her manners. A multitude of factors are going against her tonight.

Race 5: NW $1,000 L4 OR $4,400 L8 STARTS (W/O $7,500 L8 N/E). AE: N/A $1,225 P/S IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $12,500. AE: MARES N/A $970 P/S L8.

(8) MALONE looked to be just one paced when moving around the final turn, but all of a sudden found himself with a bit of a lack of room, and then he was moving best of all in the final 20 strides. Plante could be aggressive this week. (2) ETERNALLY HANOVER is a horse I’m not quite ready to pull the trigger on yet, but last week’s effort after being off for over a month was very good. (10) TALK SHOW HOST should be able to hang on for a piece if put into the race. He looms as the x-factor from the high draw.

Race 6: POP UP SERIES: HORSES THAT STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN LAST 3 STARTS AND NW $50,000 IN 2025. AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). LEG 1.

(6) SHUTTER GREEN has done some of his best work when rating the mile. He should have no problem getting towards the front in a shorter field and looms with a chance to wire the field. (7) DONATOVER produced a season’s best mark last week. The veteran continues to show that he still has some punch left in him. (1) CHAPTER TWELVE had a tough trip in his first start off the bench. He is likely to be racing from off the pace, but a step forward could see him land in the exotics.

Race 7: FILLIES & MARES, NW $9,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW 6 RACES OR $80,000 LIFETIME.

I’ll take my chances with (10) CAVIAR N CRACKERS from the high draw. She hasn’t won in a while, but two straight trips from nearly last won’t help any horse turn around their form. I could see her blasting out and posting a big mile on the drop in class. (6) DIRTY DIANA was bet down to the role of favorite last week and used a cheap middle half to her advantage. She could loom as a threat to trip out from the pocket. (3) ANGOSTURA HANOVER continues to grind out solid finishes, but has yet to pop up with a winning effort in quite some time. I will continue to use her underneath.

Race 8: NW $2,600 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $7,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000.

The class drop is hard to ignore on (8) PHOENIX who is having another sneaky good season. J-Mac should have him in play early. (3) MISTER MAGIC has put together two solid efforts in a row and should be sitting close again. I can see him adding a little value to exactas if he is able to work out a trip. (2) SOUTHWIND DOMINO should have the ability to rebound off the drop in class. He was stung too much last week and paid for it late in the mile. The post switch should help him as well.

Race 9: FILLIES & MARES OPEN.

(2) ABSOLUTION stayed on decently in her latest despite being pace compromised and having to work first over. She has the turn of foot to pass top class rivals even if the fractions aren’t the quickest. (6) TELLS ON A ROLL got a perfect trip last week, and is likely to find herself in a similar spot in this short field. A repeat win would not surprise me. (3) GRIT N GRACE was the pacesetter out of that race but got picked off by the aforementioned Tells On A Roll. She has come up short in two straight efforts when sitting close.

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Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000. AE: NW $32,500 IN 2025.

(5) MADRID A didn’t get her kind of trip last week. She races off the claim tonight for a barn that tends to have them ready to roll on first asking. (4) SUPERIOR DELIGHT is as consistent as they come at this level. She hasn’t missed the board in nine straight starts, and has finished in the exacta in eight of those. (1) CHEESE PARTY nearly got a check last week when closing from the back. I think we could see a better effort out of her from the rail tonight.

Race 11: FILLIES & MARES THAT STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN LAST 3 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $12,500.

(2) MISS DUTTON found some success in PEI before returning last week and taking a tour around the Mohawk oval from post ten. She gets a significant drop in class and should take a major step forward. (5) ONE LAST BET has enough gate speed to get herself into a stalking spot. I like her chances to get a big piece. (8) D A TEMPTATION has been grinding out decent finishes in recent weeks. I can see her working an off the pace trip tonight and landing in the money.