Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 10/9/26

Top Pick Stats: 573/1831 (-$955.20)

Best Bets: 67/165 (-$47.50); Spot Plays: 35/168 (-$106.00)

Best Bet: MARGOSGOTTHECARGO (Race 3)

Spot Play: HALL OF FEAR (Race 6)

Early Pick-5: 4,5/2,5/1/8,9/1,4 $3.20

Late Pick-5: 4,8/4,9/4,6/5,6/7,10 $6.40

Race 1: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $39,500) LIFETIME.

(5) ALCHEMY HANOVER sustained his move nicely and was able to edge away in the final sixteenth. I’ll go right back to him tonight. (4) LYONS FIRSTBULLDOG finds major post relief after a decent fourth place finish from an outside draw. Gate speed should allow him an easier route to secure a good trip. (9) D A BODACIOUS likely looks for a live helmet this week. He should be passing rivals late if the outside flow is moving.

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Race 2: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, WINNERS OF 3 BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 RACES OR $80,000 (OS $100,000) LIFETIME.

(2) SECRET SOCIETY earned another win in his latest and it came from off the pace. I think he keeps the winning ways going. (5) STRONGMAN HANOVER could be more involved this week given the short field. His turn of foot on the end of it could be much more effective. (1) D A LETS BOOGIE is another with quality speed on both ends of the mile who might be fighting to secure an early seat near the lead. The race could be won in the first eighth.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $20,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $40,000 IN 2026. AE: NW 5 RACES LIFETIME.

(1) MARGOSGOTTHECARGO continues to remain in top form and comes right back against most of the rivals she bested last week. (9) ALWAYS DAWN is logical given the double drop in class but will need to be more involved from another outside draw. (4) PERFECTLY CHIC draws well but likely looks for a live helmet to get her into contention. I’ll use her underneath.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (OS 5) RACES OR $70,000 LIFETIME.

(8) P N G SHADOW has flourished when sent off on the lead. It likely gives her a better chance than last week where she tried two moves against the white hot Can’t Turn You Down. (9) MALICIA SPEED paced strongly through the wire in that same race and has the versatility to get into the race regardless of trip. (2) COLD CREEK CALI hasn’t raced in three weeks and is likely a step short given that fact.

Race 5: NW $1,200 LAST 4 STARTS (W/O $7,500 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $1,275 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NW $100 IN 2026.

(1) LONGSHOT PANIC finds a different field this week that should be more to his liking. He recently earned his first win of the season, but has been in much better form since returning to Mohawk. (4) GYPSY JOE was a sharp winner here three starts ago and draws perfectly for a potential speed try. (3) DANCE CAPTAIN has plenty of early speed but has trouble sustaining it late. We’ve seen it in each of his last three starts.

Race 6: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (OS 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME.

(8) HALL OF FEAR is third back since a sick scratch and showed clear improvement in his latest. I could see him putting forth a big effort tonight. (4) ASSISTANT COACH might finally be turning a corner after two improved efforts in a row. He clearly has enough ability to win here. (5) LYONS MOONSHADOW raced huge to get as close as he did last week. Some gate speed could allow him to get the tactical jump on a few of his rivals.

Race 7: F&M NW $6,000 L4 OR NW $12,000 L8 STS (W/O $15,000 LAST 8 STS N/E) AE: OPT. CLM. $40,000. AE: NW $35,000 IN 2026 (MIN 10 STS). AE: $2,110 P/S IN 2025-2026.

(9) TAMARA HANOVER was pressured heavily in the early stages but held on nicely for second. She likely has to work hard from this outside draw, but that hasn’t stopped her in the past. (4) MADRID A gets a steep drop and finds herself with major post relief. Plenty going in her favor before the race even begins. (5) DIXIE DREAM finally draws well again and likely looks to get away slightly better than in recent outings.

Race 8: NW $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $8,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $25,000. AE: N/A $1,675 P/S IN 2026.

(6) RAISING RUSTY has shown more with JR Plante in the bike, and you saw that last week. Look for these two to team up for another quality outing. (4) I GOT THE LOOKS likes to grind into contention but has been too far back in his last two outings. Post relief should help tonight. (2) DISTANCE LEARNING finally draws inside tonight. However, I don’t think a forward trip is the right move for him and a midpack trip sees him against horses like I Got The Looks who I feel can outsprint him late. A tactical disadvantage, you could call it.

Race 9: FILLIES & MARES, NW $25,000 LAST 4 STARTS. AE: NW 8 RACES OR $150,000 LIFETIME. AE: N/A $3,600 P/S IN 2026.

(6) ABSOLUTION had to work first over in her latest. I’ll give her a pass. A better trip can see her get back to her winning ways. (5) CENTURY JAMILA is third back now and looked better in her latest. She is a main player against these mares when at her best. (1) CARRERA SUNSET N earned a nice win in her latest and has continued her sharp form for over a month now.

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Race 10: NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS (W/O $12,000 LAST 8 STARTS N/E). AE: N/A $1,105 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $15,000.

(7) WASTINGNOTIME continues to put himself right in the mix with last week visually looking like his best outing in weeks. I’ll try him again. (10) GUCCI GUCCI GOO tends to be overmatched in the conditioned ranks but is trotting miles that definitely fit against these. Outside draw will only bring more value. (4) TYRONE BOW TIE was a winner when last seen at this level and has the gate speed to work out a nice trip. He’ll have to mind his manners, however.

Race 11: FILLIES & MARES, NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $5,500 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: N/A $1,240 P/S IN 2026 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: OPT. CLM. $15,000.

(3) STAG ROYAL got shuffled during the mile and didn’t find clear sailing until it was too late. She deserves another look. (2) ONEFORMYBABY took an extended vacation in PEI but flaunted some sharp speed at a similar level to kick off her season. If she brings that here, she will be tough to catch. (1) LITTLE MOMENTS tends to work from off the pace but could get away a little closer to the leaders this week from an inside draw.