Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 10/9

Meet Stats: 268 - 853/ $1550.70 (-$155.30)
Best Bets: 43 - 76 / $141.20 (-$10.80)
Spot Plays: 13 - 78 / $108.50 (-$47.50)
Best Bet: SOUND IDEA (10TH)
Spot Play: HP I GOT TOPLAY (1ST)
Early Pick 5: 8/5,7,8/1,3,4,5/2,8,9/3,8 = $14.40
Late Pick 5: 3,7/7,10/4,5,8/6,8,9/8 = $7.20
Early Pick 4: 2,8,9/3,8/3,7/7,10 = $24
Late Pick 4: 6,8,9/8/1,3,10/4,5,6 = $27

Race 1: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $35,500 LT **GTD $100,000 Pick 5**

(8) HP I GOT TOPLAY just paced a mile over the Three Rivers track in Quebec that is likely equal to about a 1:51 mile at Mohawk Park and off that big effort he gets top billing in the opener. (3) SUNSHINE LIST exits a tough race and he fits well vs. these; using. (5) DEVIL OR ANGEL gets post relief here and he should get an easier trip. That puts him in the mix vs. these and he has shown enough speed in the past. (10) MACK was flying late last week, and he should rally for another share here.

Race 2: 6YO and Younger NW3 (F&M 5) or $41,000 (F&M $51,000)

(5) FORTUNE STARLET set big splits and kept on for an easy win last week and she gets the call to repeat off that sharp win. (7) CHEESES MURPHY has been a new horse since switching barns and while this is tougher, he shouldn't be dismissed. (8) DELILAH SEELSTER brings a top effort every week and she wouldn't be a shock, but from out there it seems more likely she will finish underneath again. (6) NIMBUS DEO was no match for the choice last time, but she figures to be in the hunt for a share here.

Race 3: F&M NW5 or $75,000

(1) AMERICAN TOUR N made a sustained wide move when the pace was accelerating last week which caught my eye. She should bring a good price here facing some sires stakes fillies sporting fast marks, but I give her the call to upset. (3) BEACH SPORTS was part of a wicked pace last time and although she couldn't repel Alicorn late, that was a big mile. She is an obvious threat. (5) ROSE RUN VICTORIA rolled by under minimal urging to upset a big chalk and she is another sophomore who is capable, but OSS Superfinals are coming soon, so I'd demand a price on any of them. (4) BETALADY seems to race better from the back and I expect her to deploy a closing style here and take a share.

Race 4: F&M NW $8,000 L5 or $16,200 L10 AE: OPT CLM $18,000 - Pick 4

(2) THIS DRAGON ROCKS gets post and class relief here and I expect more aggression in this spot; top call. (9) SUNDAY AFTERNOON has a similar profile as the choice, and she has the requisite gate speed to get away fast from the wide post. She should be a threat. (8) SKATER CHICK raced decently in a fast race for this class last time. She is in with a shot and she should be a good price. (1) TWIN B TIPSTER is improving, and she can make it into the Super despite stepping up in class.

Race 5: F&M NW $12,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000

This is a bigger drop than it appears for (8) BOADICEA because she was facing several droppers last week, the winner coming out of a Grand Circuit race. If she clears to the front early, she could be gone. (3) HELLO LOVE gets critical post relief and she has an upset chance this week. (6) ROLL WITH SPARKY will get overbet on the class drop and I'll play to beat her in this spot considering her 3 for 49 win rate the past two seasons. (2) CUSTARD LITE made a nice late move last week; consider for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 6: NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10 - Pick 5

(7) BUZZ is likely to be put into play immediately at the start this week after an even try when starting from the second tier and he gets top call. (3) SWEET CHAPTER took heavy betting action last week and she raced okay although soundly beaten. If she lands in the pocket leaving, she has upset potential. (1) STORMONT CHARLOTTE is another who should get an easier trip this week and I'll use her in the exotics despite her making a class jump. (10) TREASURED TEE drops but I don't love the second tier for him; demand a price.

Race 7: 5YO and Younger NW3 or $57,500

(10) REVOLT always looked like a winner last week and it was just a matter of when he was going to be unleashed; call to repeat despite post. (7) DELIGHTFUL TERROR is capable of ripping off a fast mile and he fits better here; using on multi-race tickets. (1) JK LAST CHANCE was in the flow and challenging but he was no match for the choice last week. I’ll use him on the bottom here. (4) INDICTABLE HANOVER was on live cover and had no excuse last week. I'll play to beat him again.

Race 8: NW6 (F&M 7) or $70,000 (F&M $87,500)

(4) ANGRY EYES has consistently brought a top effort to the track for many starts in a row and she gets the nod here. (8) ONEY HALL exits a very fast race in Lexington but he's also missed a month so I wouldn’t take a short price. (5) WINGS OF SPEED was game in defeat to a tough older horse last time. He isn't out of this. (6) ARCANUM is a good one to use on the bottom of the Super as he will be passing horses late.

Race 9: FILLIES and MARES PREFERRED HANDICAP - Pick 4

(9) LIT DE ROSE paced a big mile in defeat in the Milton final and the mare that won that night came right back to defeat Shartin N. She gets the nod despite being assigned the worst post. (8) SO MUCH MORE exits the same race and you'll notice that three starts back these mares were 1-2 in this class; using. (6) PHILLY HANOVER dropped and popped in fast time and she draws better than her main rivals. She certainly isn't out of this. (7) KENDALL SEELSTER steps back up off a sharp win. I see her finishing on the edges here.

Race 10: F&M 4YO and Younger NW 2 or $43,000

(8) SOUND IDEA takes a massive class drop here and she should get sent right down the road by McClure. (9) MAJOR BATTLE finished 2nd in a strong race last time and assuming she gets put into this race early she should be an Exacta factor. (10) LARJON LEAH takes a big jump in class here but her 8-1-1 record from 10 starts this year is hard to ignore and she could land in the Tri or Super. (4) DOCS HARMONY should blast for position here and I see her sticking around for a slice this time.

Race 11: F&M NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10

This is a good spot for class dropper (1) LADY ROCKNROLLA A to get back on track facing a field of mares most of which are mostly jumping up in class. (10) KIT paced a sub-27 third 1/4 to get into contention last week only to be picked off late in the lane. She should threaten here. (3) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE made several moves against a big chalk last time in a good effort and she should hit the board here. (2) SMOKE N REACTOR N should get a good trip from her inside post. I'll use her on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 12: 5YO and Younger NW2 or $35,500 LT

(6) NEED AROCKET made a move into some strong fractions and he held sway in a sharp effort last week. Off that big mile he gets the call to repeat. (5) BEACH DEMON has faced some tough company recently and he should be a major contender vs. these. He's on my late Pick 4 ticket. (4) RETOUR AU JEU shows some good miles on the Quebec 1/2-miler and his trainer has had some success here already this season. He is the third option in this race. (1) BEE TWO BEE should sit a good trip here and stick around for a share. (8) ILLGETMYOWN THANKS rarely misses the top five; using underneath.