Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 10/4

Meet Stats: 24/61 (-$27.00)

Best Bets: 3/6 (-$0.70)

Spot Plays: 1/5 (-$6.40)

Best Bet: Race 3 (6) SWIFT TALKER

Spot Play: Race 8 (3) GRATEFUL

Early Pick 5: 79/358/6/26810/35 $9.60 for 20c

Early Pick 4: 26810/35/2510/110 $9.60 for 20c

Late Pick 5: 2510/110/3/236/24710 $9.60 for 20c

Late Pick 4: 110/3/236/24710 $4.80 for 20c

Race 1: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $50,000 (OS $67,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. **Pick 5 $75,000 Guarantee**

(7) KYLES ART had won four out of five at this level but was too far back in last. Gets back on track here. (9) SPORTNSENSE closed in 27 2/5 from a tough spot 9/27. Big track could suit his style. (2) DAY TRADER took money in that race but could only manage third. Last two kicks put him in play from this post. (1) MIKRON is another share type that could be rounding into form right now.

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Race 2: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $21,950 LIFETIME

(8) HP RUN DETECTOR gets a new barn off a nice win at Rideau 9/15. Steps up but this race isn’t a much tougher spot. (3) VANJIE BLUE CHIP showed speed in last when favored but tired late. Prior lines fit much better here. (5) RECONCILE ships in from Tioga with three wins in his last five races. Speed has served him well so far. (10) STORMONT CHEERIO won well 9/19 in NW1 company. He certainly owed a few backers $ as he’s been favored in four of last five with only that win. Can share with a rally.

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Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YO OPT. CLM. $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: PROSPECT STARTERS

(6) SWIFT TALKER was facing much tougher in grassroots final and closed up to be 4th. Looms large vs this bunch. (10) CHEESE PARTY has won five straight against Prospect types but now steps up and draws poorly. (9) RAFFLE WINNER has shown speed in her last two and rapid improvement. She’s the one to catch. (7) ALWAYS A CATCH is having a nice season with $59k earned. This is a class test and a share is more likely.

Race 4: 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE (WINNERS FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS 2 RACES) OR $8,500 LIFETIME. NO ALLOWANCES - Pick 4

(2) BETTOR BE EARLY has a kick that’s faster than these but he’s usually too far back to make an impression. Better post here and McNair returns. (6) RISE N GRIND is a consistent check getter but only has one win. Two back line plays well vs these. (8) HE’S STILL WATCHING is racing well at Grand River even with tough draws. Will be a big price shipping in for Lyle here. (10) LYONS BRUSHMARKS has twelve shares the past two seasons. Another share possible if he leaves like he did two back.

Race 5: 2 & 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES: NW 1 RACE OR $9,000 LIFETIME. WITH ALLOWANCES.

(5) OH A LEGEND has a 26 2/5 kick in last and a 26 3/5 one three back on the resumé. She will be tough to hold off if that repeats in this spot. (3) VENDETTA BLUE CHIP won well at 1/9 odds on 9/9 at Grand River. Different bunch here but 7/9 qualifier at this racetrack was a solid win. (9) COLD CREEK ESPERO has shown talent so far but broke stride two starts back. She needs to be closer early and behave. (1) MY GELATO tried grassroots here back in July and raced well. Needs to navigate post on come back.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $39,950 LIFETIME - Pick 5

(5) ITDONTMATTERTOME was favored over main rival (10) BILLIE JEAN QUEEN in grassroots tilt on 9/27 but that one got the jump early on her and won wire to wire. The post difference now should be enough to turn the tables but both are capable against this bunch. (2) NAUTILUS B grabbed some confidence and a nice win at Grand River 9/25. Should show speed again. (6) SHETROTSALOT has 14 top three finishes this season despite racing at different levels at different racetracks.

Race 7: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $18,975 (ON SIRED $21,750) LIFETIME. AE: 3 & 4 N/A $1,380 P/S IN 2023-24 - Pick 4

(1) ROCKS SHADOW returns from a layoff since May with a solid qualifier in tow. 5/24 line shows a 25 4/5 kick in a grassroots spot. She also raced at the Gold level at two. (10) LANESIDE INCONTROL has three wins in four starts so far but all at the NW1 level. Moves outside for the first time and that could compromise chances. (2) LADY CAFE AU LAIT just wired a grassroots race 9/17 while favored. Two year old gets older here but is sharp. (5) ACEFORTYFOUR BELLA is speedy out of town, last race seems too bad to be believed.

Race 8: NW $18,000 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,690 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: 3 YR OLDS NW $28,600 IN 2024

(3) GRATEFUL had a sharp qualifier on 9/20 with a 27 4/5 kick. His speed wins this if he can stay flat. (4) VICTOR INVICTUS is an old classy type that has been grabbing checks in recent starts vs tougher foes. He’s a use in multis here. (9) VILLEFRANCE AS is another that fits that description. Should leave early to grab a spot and a share here. (8) DELCREST BRENT should close up for his usual slice and maybe even more if the others go too fast early.

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Race 9: FILLIES & MARES, NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $14,750 L 10. AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000. AE: N/A $1,640 P/S IN 2024. AE: STARTERS FOR A PURSE $9,500 LAST START

(2) WATCH HER DEWITT has fourteen wins this year and gets a huge class drop. (6) SHOOT THE WHISKEY was too high in class on 9/27 from a wide draw. Prior three lines are very solid from eight time winner this year. (3) CHELSIS CHOICE is another that won two straight then rose up the ladder. Her kick is potent with a setup. (8) SILENT CROSSING is a speed type that can clear from this post. Capable of taking these a long way if they let her alone.

Race 10: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: OS 4YO NW $5,450 LAST 5 STARTS

Tough nightcap. (2) FRIAR VOLTAIRE kicked 26 4/5 on 9/27 from far back. He only has one win the past two seasons but a repeat of that could get him another. (4) GLADIATOR S BG drops to a claimer looking for a wake up. He has four wins this season. (7) CHEDDAR DUHARAS tried speed in last but tired late. That race was likely faster than this one will be. (9) B SONNY won two back then busted in latest. He’s capable of a share if he stays flat. (10) BETTOR ON ICE has ten exacta finishes this year. Needs to roll early like last start and keep going.