Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 10/25

Top Pick Stats: 550 - 1632 / $2,955.20 (-$308.80)

Best Bets: 78 - 149 / $246.70 (-$51.30)

Spot Plays: 35 - 146 / $326.70 (+$34.70)

Best Bet: MENDING FENCES (4TH)

Spot Play: IM ABOVE AVERAGE (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,5,7/1,5,6/1,9,10/4/1,2,10 = $21.60

Late Pick 5: 1,2,5/5,6,8/2,9/2,5/1,3 = $14.40

Early Pick 4: 4/1,2,10/1,2,5/5,6,8 = $5.40

Late Pick 4: 2,9/2,5/1,3/1,3,4 = $4.80

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES, NW $8,200 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: N/A $2,405 P/S IN 2024 (MIN 15 STS). AE: NW $85,000 LIFETIME**Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

We get a very competitive field of 10 to kick off the early Pick 5 here. I’ll try (4) SORCHA SEELSTER, who was first up chasing a tough leader last week now gets a driver change to Borth. (7) NEED TO BREATHE comes in fresh, making only her seventh start of the year here and she qualified well at Flamboro. Her best puts her right there with these. (5) SPORTS DUCHESS was a predictable winner on the class drop yet somehow paid $24 last week. Stepping back up she should have some value tonight; using. (2) SHOOT THE WHISKEY is on a roll for Team Cullen and although she faces tougher here, she is another in with a shot.

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Race 2: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $50,000 (OS $76,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: N/A $585 P/S IN 2024

(1) MIKRON doesn’t win often but maybe he just needed a driver change as he was an easy winner at this level last week and he draws the same post here; call to repeat. (5) MANHAWK was caught by (6) KYLES ART after the former raced first up and both are obvious contenders right back in a race that will likely get decided by trip. (8) SPEEDY BLINDERS has found his way at this level, but he draws worst here in a good field; small share predicted.

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Race 3: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS. W/O $6,500 LAST 5 N/E

(9) IM ABOVE AVERAGE was going to win or finish 2nd in a very close photo if he stayed flat last time. The way he was moving, that looked like a speed break. If Cullen holds him together tonight, he might blow up the tote board tonight. (1) ROWLEN’s comeback race was good now he gets his main driver back. He would be no surprise here. (10) ETERNALLY HANOVER moves to the 10-hole off a win, but this field is no tougher and he is another in with a shot here despite drawing widest. (7) LIKE CHAOS is a consistent performer that comes in off a win vs. easier. He should be in the exotics mix here.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,160 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS) - Pick 4

(4) MENDING FENCES is at least one second the fastest in paper here and she will be a single for me in this spot. (7) NO MONEY HONEY shows 27 4/5 kicks in both of her last two starts and this is a spot where that strong late kick should play well; Exacta factor. (3) ULTRA is the only one of two in this race coming in off a win and she is sharp, and she should land in the Tri. (5) LAND OF PARADISE will likely improve in this second start racing off the Laver claim; price look for the exotics.

Race 5: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES OR $22,650 (OS $28,250) LIFETIME. AE: MARES N/A $1,100 P/S IN 2024

(2) DENALI DEO should get more aggressive in this third start back and I’ll give him the nod expecting eh will get put into the race early. (1) SOUTHVIEW AVIATOR comes off an excellent effort from post 10 but he loses McNair who is in New Jersey for the Breeders Crown. I’d demand a price here. (10) PENNTELLER HANOVER is obviously one of the best ones in here, but I don’t love betting Samuel Filion from post 10 at Mohawk Park. Again, price will be the deciding factor here. (7) UNCLE MORRIS will likely show speed and stick around for a small share.

Race 6: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $67,000) LIFETIME. AE: 3 Y O OPT. CLM. $40,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: PROSPECT STARTERS - Pick 5

(5) LANESIDE INCONTROL gets Henry here in a spot where all the leading drivers are out of town. This mare will likely prove hard to catch in this spot. (1) DEFININGTHE MOMENT is razor sharp and there is a good chance she will sit in the choice’s pocket. She will likely be the one to fend off late. (2) ONLYTHEGOODDIYOUNG should improve enough on the class drop to hit the board tonight. (4) SWIFT TALKER fell short as the chalk last week. She will likely close late for a share here.

Race 7: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $38,750 LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: 4 YR OLDS NW $1,575 LAST 5 STARTS

Tough race here, I’ll try (5) ARAGONITE who flashed big speed last week now returns much quicker. (8) B SONNY is capable at this level and cagey veteran conditioner Brethour could have him ready. He’s worth a look for multi-race wagers. (6) ACEFORTYFOUR ZEUS paced a nice kicker last week and he is worth using at a price here with that 27 2/5 late speed showing from last week. (9) MAE LOSE CONTROL will likely close too late again and take a slice.

Race 8: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $45,250) LIFETIME. AE: GRASSROOT STARTERS - Pick 4

(9) NO ONE takes a big drop out of the Gold Superfinal here and Richardson will put her in the race leaving the gate. She gets the nod, but I’m not expecting to get her 8 to 1 morning line quote. (2) FLIRTY DANCER was a very good Grassroots performer, and she should be right there coming in off a nice qualifier. (4) EXCITING MIA is racing better recently but she is win shy and unlikely to beat both top two choices; using underneath. (6) BILLIE JEAN QUEEN couldn’t get the job done at 3 to 5 last time. I’ll use her underneath.

Race 9: 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 4) RACES OR $50,000 (OS $62,500) LIFETIME

(2) MRSTERY DEAL comes off an excellent effort where he was the first leader, got shuffled then closed with the livest legs late. He gets the nod here and he should offer a square price. (5) SCINTILLATING TOM was Henry’s choice over (6) FASHION CONTENDER, who comes in off two straight wins. I will use the former on multi-race tickets and the latter underneath. (9) FLIGHT LANDING was good coming off a rest but from a wide draw here he likely closes late for another slice.

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Race 10: FILLIES & MARES, 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS NW $22,500 LIFETIME

(1) DONTMESSWITHMOLLY gets class relief and Henry in the bike here and I expect an aggressive steer and a score. (3) WICKEDWOMAN DE VIE hasn’t raced in close to a year, but she qualified well, and trainer Gallucci is capable of having her ready for a sharp effort. She can be an Exacta factor here. (6) MCWICKED MOVE was a non-threatening 4th to the choice two starts back. I see her taking a small share tonight. (4) ROCKS SHADOW gets post relief, and she can land in the exotics in this short field.

Race 11: FILLIES & MARES, NW $14,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. AE: NW $105,000 LIFETIME. AE: N/A $2,600 P/S IN 2024

(4) STYLE FOR A MILE gets away from Dabarndawgswatchin tonight and she should get a good trip racing close to the front; top call. (3) HOW MUCH just beat a mare that stepped up and won at the top level in her next start. Her high speed always makes her dangerous. (1) GLENBORO drops and she should get a good trip racing close to the front throughout; using. (9) SO MUCH MORE dropped and popped, stealing easy fractions. This is a much tougher spot, and she draws wide; small share predicted. (2) CAVIAR N CRACKERS was over bet last week, and pace and trip went completely against her. She is in tougher now and likely to close late for a share.