Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 10/18

Top Pick Stats: 537 - 1590 / $2,880.90 (-$299.10)

Best Bets: 77 - 146 / $241.90 (-$53.10)

Spot Plays: 35 - 143 / $326.70 (+$40.70)

Best Bet: TELLS ON A ROLL (9TH)

Spot Play: HESOHOT HANOVER (5TH)

Early Pick 5: 2,4,5,6,7/6/1,6,7,9/3,7/5,7,9 = $24

Late Pick 5: 4,8/2,3,5/2,3/3/1,5,6,7 = $9.60

Early Pick 4: 3,7/5,7,9/4,8/2,3,5 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 2,3,5/2,3/3/1,5,6,7 = $4.80

Race 1: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $39,750) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS PROSPECT STARTERS **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(2) CHEESE PARTY drops back to NW2 where she got a tough trip from post 10 two starts back. I could see her getting a trip here and blowing up the tote board; call to upset. (7) SWIFT TALKER never got involved after leaving from the rail last week and she draws better here. She is one of several in with a shot in a wide-open race to kick off the Pick 5. (4) FANCY LETTERING is another dropping to NW2 here following a lackluster effort one level higher last week. I suppose the question is whether she emptied the tank two starts back winning the Grassroots consolation. (5) DEFININGTHE MOMENT is in solid form and she should get a decent trip racing near the front here. She is yet another in with a shot.

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Race 2: FILLIES & MARES, 2 & 3 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW $20,500 LIFETIME. AE: 4 YO NW $100 LAST 5 STARTS

(6) DIRTY DIANA took a couple of swings at the Grand Circuit after breaking her maiden and she wasn’t disgraced. She takes a big class drop now and she should handle this group. (4) OH A LEGEND gets needed class relief tonight and she will likely get involved in this race leaving the gate. That gives her a good chance to take a nice share. (3) VENDETTA BLUE CHIP raced well in defeat last when 2nd to Oh A Legend on 10/4 and she is in the exotics mix again. (7) MCWICKED MOVE can pass a few of these late and take another slice.

Race 3: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: N/A $1,465 P/S IN 2024

(1) MIKRON doesn’t win often, but he has the best form in here and he has the gate speed to get positioned near the front early. I’ll give him the nod. (9) FEAR MY SMILE is in easier here facing conditioned claimers and he is capable if he gets put into the race from the widest post; using. (7) ARAGONITE drops into a claimer for the first time, and he is fast enough to contend here if he stays flat tonight. He is another option for the early Pick 5. (6) MAE LOSE CONTROL closed for a share after breaking early last time. He can land in the exotics again starting from the best post tonight.

Race 4: FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $85,250 LIFETIME - Pick 4

Two fillies that exit the Gold Superfinal stand out here. (7) SORCHA SEELSTER has more tactical speed than (3) COCO JO JO, and the former gets the nod based on the likelihood that she will get the jump on the latter. (4) KELLENA DIAMOND got an easy first 1/2 last week and she sealed the deal. I think one or both of the top two choices get the measure of her tonight. (6) STONEBRIDGE HALO should improve enough to take a slice here.

Race 5: NW $18,000 (F&M $22,500) IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,670 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 8 STARTS)

(9) HESOHOT HANOVER is in solid form, and he gets into the race based on the average earnings condition. He fits well vs. these, and he gets top billing. (5) DELCREST BRENT was out forever last time at this level, and he was beaten less than two lengths. Post relief makes him a contender tonight; using. (7) MY HOLY MOLEY is razor sharp and he can win here if he times his move correctly. (1) VICTOR INVICTUS was right there at this level two starts back but he is an infrequent winner. I’d demand a price here.

Race 6: CLAIMING $20,000 FOR NW $30,000 (OS $37,500) LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. AE: N/A $1,465 P/S IN 2024 - Pick 5

(8) OUTRAGEOUS SHOW was a winner last week if he didn’t break, but he started to go rough at the 3/4 pole and eventually blew up. I’d take a good look at this one in the post parade and scoring down before heading to the windows. (4) SPEEDY BLINDERS rode the choice’s cover and inherited the win, and he is the obvious alternative here. (7) KINNDER KENOGAMI was aggressively driven, and he tired late. I can see him looking for a trip this time and landing in the Tri. (1) DM SNAKEPLISSKEN took plenty of action last week and he raced well. He is in the mix again.

Race 7: FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR $30,000 (OS $42,000) LIFETIME - Pick 4

(5) ITDONTMATTERTOME was in great form before her last start when she broke stride and lost all chance. She stacks up well here and she can rebound vs. these if she behaves. (3) EXCITING MIA sat a nice trip and capitalized last week, and she has now won two of her last six after starting her career 0 for 12. She figures to be the main threat here. (2) P L RACHEL got J Mac and she jogged now she loses the leading driver. She is an obvious contender on paper, but she may get over bet here; your call. (1) GO HAVE FUN, who exits the Grassroots consolation, can sit a trip and land a share in this spot.

Race 8: FILLIES & MARES, NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $57,500 IN 2024. AE: N/A $2,610 P/S IN 2024

This is the lowest that (2) SO MUCH MORE has raced in five years, and she should get the job done vs. these with one return start under her belt coming into tonight’s race. (3) MS QUICK SAND is sharp, drawn well and also drops and I wouldn’t be surprised if she gives the choice a race; using. (5) CAVIAR N CRACKERS should kick home for a share in this spot. (7) POWDER PLAY was an unlucky loser last week, but this is no easy spot for her; small share predicted.

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Race 9: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED

(3) TELLS ON A ROLL was better last week now she doesn’t have to face Breeders Crown bound Silver Label. She should be tough in here racing close to the front throughout. (4) HUNTRESS is the other one that should benefit from the top mares’ defection, and I can see her lasting longer in this mile; Exacta factor. (1) ANGOSTURA HANOVER will likely sit a nice trip here and land in the bottom of the exotics. (6) SHES GOT IT ALL is sharp, but she is probably limited to a small share in this spot.

Race 10: FILLIES & MARES: NW $18,000 IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS). AE: NOT AVERAGING $1,500 PER START IN 2024 (MIN 10 STARTS)

(5) MENDING FENCES was live in the lane last week but locked in for the entire stretch drive. She gets McNair now and she should get an aggressive steer; top call. (7) CHELSIS CHOICE should improve by default on the class drop here and she would be no surprise in this spot. (6) BETTER BE DONNA is the leader that kept the choice trapped and she has raced well at this level in two straight starts. She will likely be the one to catch again here. (1) NO MONEY HONEY wasn’t far back in the same race the top two exit, and she draws much better here. She is another in with a decent chance. (2) CARSONS GOUDA ships in from the ‘B’ tracks in solid form and she should take a check at a minimum.