Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 10/17

Top Pick Stats: 280/817 (-$276.80)

Best Bets: 37/75 ($13.40); Spot Plays: 16/75 (-$32.40)

Best Bet: EASY STATION (Race 3)

Value Play: SORCHA SEELSTER (Race 5)

Spot Play: ONE LAST WISH (Race 13)

Early Pick-5: 1,4,9/5,6/5/1/2,8 $2.40

Middle Pick-5: 3,4/1,7/1,2/2/6 $1.60

Late Pick-5: 2/6/3,5,6/7/5 $0.60

Race 1: POP UP SERIES FINAL: H&G STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS (W/O $40,000 IN 2025 N/E). AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(1) WALLACE HARTLEY was at his best last week, and ripped off a career best win in leg two of this series. This is a salty bunch on their best day, but it’s hard to ignore two efforts like that. (4) RIPASSO produced another sharp closing effort to finish less than a length behind the winner who got the jump. He should have pace to chase tonight. (9) ROLL EM caught the field napping last week with a first over blitz and cleared to the lead with ease. He was able to outsprint the field from there and pull off a slight upset. If he gets put in play, I would look for him to get a piece. (8) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS did not produce his best last week after appearing to be taking steps forward for the new barn. The driver change makes him extremely interesting.

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Race 2: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD COLT TROT. ENTRY FEE: $5,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH.

(6) MR BIG SPENDER has handled himself nicely in the big dances, and comes off a sharp win in Lexington from an outside post. He should have no trouble getting to the lead if Wilder wants; We’ll see how a few of these handle the Mohawk surface and oval. (5) IM KRONOS S looked overmatched in New Jersey, but Apex would be the horse to beat if he was in here, and the trips didn’t necessarily help. Ake can get plenty out of his horses on the front end; I would look for him to be forward as well. (2) SPENCER HANOVER produced an effort that is hard to ignore. His first win was a major statement. If he can mind his manners, he is one to watch out for. (1) KINGMEN has an edge in that he already has a couple of races over Mohawk, and he showed good ability in those races. The well-bred son of Walner adds to what is an extremely competitive elimination.

Race 3: FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW OF 2 RACES OR $15,000 (ON SIRED $21,000) LIFETIME. AE: 3 YEAR OLDS NW $2,200 LAST 4 STARTS.

(5) EASY STATION was clearly the best horse in the race last week, but a troubled trip found her scrambling to the outside in the stretch. A big longshot got the jump on her, but she still managed second by only a head. It’s hard to imagine her getting a worse trip than last week. (4) WHOA BLACK BETTY was mired at the back in that same race, but showed her strong turn of foot in the stretch and finished third. Expect her to be put in play a bit more tonight; She was J-Mac’s choice over two others. (3) STYLISH STELLA paced a strong mile when shipping to Rideau which ultimately helped her pull off an upset at a double digit price. She makes both her Mohawk debut and barn debut for Chantal Mitchell; I would expect her to take another step forward. (8) LYONS TRINA had some sharp form to her name before her first Mohawk start, but was too far back to make a major impact in that race. I could see her working off a helmet behind the #4 and getting another piece.

Race 4: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD COLT TROT. ENTRY FEE: $5,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH.

(1) ENDURANCE was your overwhelming favorite in last month’s Mohawk Million. Despite coming up short to Apex, he brings a near perfect record into this Breeders Crown elimination, and looms as the horse to beat. (7) IT COULD BE WORSE is looking to prove himself as more than a Lexington lover. His gate speed is no joke, and Scott Zeron gives him the nod, meaning we’re likely to see him hit the front first. (6) NIX NACKEN got a major form reversal when racing in Kentucky. I hesitate to use him too high, because it could be a flash in the pan, and any kind of well-rated fractions up top could spell disaster. (4) CAMBRIDGE HANOVER could sit a pocket trip behind the #1, knowing how Dunn operates, but he hasn’t shown enough pop against the top horses in this division. I’ll use him underneath.

Race 5: FILLIES & MARES, NW $12,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $30,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: NW $110,000 LIFETIME. AE: N/A $3,165 P/S IN 2025.

(8) SORCHA SEELSTER sits at just 1-for-21 on the win end this year, but showed a strong turn of foot after sitting an inside trip. She finished less than a length behind two classy mares. If she gets put in play from this post, I think she can finally get the job done again. (2) ALWAYS DAWN has had an excellent run against older horses in recent weeks. She comes off a career-best win and draws inside again, where she should have options off the car. (6) GLENBORO drops from the Open level, but hasn’t been as sharp in recent weeks in my opinion. She is capable of blasting and sitting a good trip, but I will use her underneath. (10) SETTN A PRECEDENT ended up going off as the favorite last week, and got the job done after a front-end trip. She draws the worst post tonight, but should still take some support.

Race 6: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT. ENTRY FEE: $5,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH.

(4) SETYOURSIGHTSHIGH gets my nod in a top heavy elimination. She has been a top filly in both Ohio and Kentucky. Look for her to get plenty of respect and go off as the slight favorite over (3) SOUTHWIND CHASKA, who brings just as much talent and ability. It could set up a major battle between the top two. (6) EMMAS MYSTERY CCL has the turn of foot necessary to win this race. She has raced well from up close and off the pace so far. Her effort in Lexington should have her tighter than others coming into tonight. (2) STORYBOOK LOVE has two strong second place finishes at Mohawk and has held her own elsewhere. I can see her sitting inside and getting a piece.

Race 7: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD COLT PACE. ENTRY FEE: $5,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH.

(7) MELILLO might take more support than I’d like coming off that sharp win in Lexington, but I’ve personally thought that he could become Burke’s second best freshman pacer (behind Loua Dipa) by the end of the year. I could be wrong, but I’ve been wrong before. (1) BRANDON BLVD has yet to finish out of the exacta and produced one of the more impressive wins on Red Mile’s closing weekend. This is another deep division. (2) AL PAPI is the more obvious Burke horse if you look at his entire summer. He frequently beat Melillo on the square, and comes off an excellent win in Kentucky. Gingras should give him every chance. It feels like sacrilege to leave the Mohawk regulars out of the top three, but the firepower is overwhelming. (6) SWEET LOVIN LOU has produced a couple of vicious miles around this oval, and got a great drive from J-Mac which resulted in a near-miss second. You have to put someone underneath, though. They can’t all win, despite the strength of the race.

Race 8: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT. ENTRY FEE: $5,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH.

(2) JAILBIRD JOG has been her own worst enemy throughout the summer, but when she is right, she is one tough filly to beat. J-Mac got plenty out of her in the last two starts; I’ll look for her to work out a trip and mind her manners. (1) NEZUKO KAMADO S has found her form again on the bigger tracks. Melander tends to have his horses ready to go for the big dances. (5) BINGO NIGHT gets a deserving shot at the top level after her streak of strong finishes in the provincial program. Last week’s win from post ten was very strong. (4) LAINEY W has shown decent ability in Lexington, but doesn’t appear to have enough pop to contend with the top ones. She will need a fair amount to go her way.

Race 9: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD COLT PACE. ENTRY FEE: $5,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH.

(2) BEAU JANGLES looks to extend his double-digit undefeated streak as he takes on (3) FRANTIC HANOVER again, who he beat on the square in the Metro Pace. The latter didn’t lose anything in defeat in that race, or in Lexington where he just missed against Brandon Blvd. Those two should put on a show again. (7) UBRUTE is another burgeoning star for the Burke Brigade, and adds to the intrigue of an otherwise heavyweight matchup. Gingras is likely to have him involved early. (8) TILTHECOWSCOMEHOME also probably has to be forwardly placed if he wants to have any chance. The novelty of him vs. Beau Jangles has worn off, but he is still a nice horse.

Race 10: BREEDERS CROWN: ELIMINATION: 2 YEAR OLD FILLY PACE. ENTRY FEE: $5,000 USD. ALL HORSES MUST BE IN RETENTION BEFORE 11PM THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH.

(6) LOUA DIPA has looked nothing short of remarkable in her last two efforts. A couple fillies in here are nice, but not on her level. (8) PERFECT THOUGHT gave Loua Dipa a race in the elimination of the Shes A Great Lady (even though she was never going by), but made an early miscue in the final. Her morning prep has her back on track to take another shot at the queen of the division. (10) IM A LOU LOU uncorked a vicious final quarter in Lexington to draw away from rivals. That was a win she sorely needed. Any kind of trip could see her challenging late. (3) ON HEIR has been taking steps forward in each of her recent starts, and has the post edge on others who I am trying above her. She has the potential to trip out behind the #6 if others don’t fire out.

Race 11: POP UP SERIES CONSOLATION: H&G STARTERS FOR PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS (W/O $40,000 IN 2025 N/E) .AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS). FRI/SAT

(5) CRUNCH HANOVER had a tough trip in his latest against the red hot Wallace Hartley, but battled hard and still finished in the money. He should have more staying power against these weaker horses; I’ll give him the nod. (6) PREMIER FIRST STAR was a sharp winner two starts ago when racing towards the front. I can see him blasting out and trying to take this field the whole way. (3) RESPECT OUR FLAG has tried seemingly everything as of late, but has been unable to get the job done. This could be the veteran’s week to show some more. (4) SKYLAR has some staying power when racing up close, but is more of an underneath use.

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Race 12: POP UP SERIES FINAL: F&M STARTERS FOR A PURSE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN L3 STARTS (W/O $40,000 IN 2025 N/E). AE: NW $30,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(7) MARGOSGOTTHECARGO finally put it all together last week en route to a going away win. That was the ability that we saw early in her career. You’ll have to swallow a short price again, but if that version of her shows up, good luck. (2) ROCKS SHADOW didn’t end up making a quarter move to the front last week, and it appeared to have cost her. She had to wait for room to open up on the inside, and couldn’t pace with the outside rivals late. She can sit another trip up close. (3) ALWAYS B MERRY made a strong first over attempt at the leaders, and ended up a near-miss second. Spence has given her plenty of chances, which you have to respect. (8) KIERA SEELSTER capitalized off the cover set by Always B Merry, and closed down the center of the track to get the win. She draws poorly and loses J-Mac; I’ll use her underneath.

Race 13: FILLIES & MARES, NW $9,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR NW $18,000 LAST 8 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $50,000. AE: NW $45,000 IN 2025 (MIN 10 STARTS).

(5) ONE LAST WISH may have been facing tougher horses last week, but she once again showed that she is not a mare who can grind into contention and sustain that move. Two back, Roy showed exactly what kind of trip she needs, and she just missed. Look for her to try and wire the field tonight. (1) BLUE POINT tried to make an early first over move at So Much More, but with the form that she is in right now, that was not going to work. She reasonably got tired, and now gets another drop in class tonight. I would look for a much improved effort. (7) CHARMBO STORMY is another mare who likes to race better when positioned up close. There isn’t too much gate speed inside of her except the #5. She could sit a good trip here. (9) ONLYTHEGOODDIYOUNG flew home to get a piece last week, but is likely to be racing from nearly last. She is a tricky mare to consider in the top spots because of her style. (2) ALLSMOKEANDMIRRORS battled hard despite an eighth place finish last time. She can sit an inside trip and be part of the Hi-5.