Woodbine Mohawk Park: Analysis for Friday 10/11

Top Pick Stats: 528 - 1556 / $2,838.40 (-$273.60)

Best Bets: 75 - 143 / $234.10 (-$54.90)

Spot Plays: 34 - 140 / $319.30 (+$39.30)

Best Bet: SILENT CROSSING (12TH)

Spot Play: STONEBRIDGE PRAISE (3RD)

Early Pick 5: 3,6,10/1,2,8/5/1,2,5/1,7 = $10.80

Middle Pick 5: 2,6,10/2,7/4,5/4,5,6/3 = $7.20

Late Pick 5: 4,5/4,5,6/3/3,4,9/5 = $3.60

Early Pick 4: 1,2,5/1,7/2,6,10/2,7 = $7.20

Late Pick 4: 4,5,6/3/3,4,9/5 = $1.80

Race 1: 5YO and younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 LT **Gtd. $75,000 Pick 5**

(10) PENNTELLER HANOVER was handled aggressively in his second start, and he converted. This isn’t a tough NW2 field, and he can repeat if he is driven with the same intent here; call to repeat. (3) SPIRIT CHASER probably wins if he doesn’t break stride in the lane last week. He should be a threat if he stays flat this time. (6) P L RACHEL closed well for a slice last time and this should be an easier spot for here. She is a possibility for the early Pick 5. (7) RECONCILE was decent in his first local start and he can close for another share here.

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Race 2: F&M 2YO and 3YO NW $15,350 LT

(2) MCWICKED MOVE comes off a game first up win at Grand River and she is the only four-time winner in this race; top call. (8) ARIELS BET has improved her speed in her last few starts, and she is in with a decent chance here despite facing three-year-olds; using. (1) MY HAPPY PLACE brings a good record west for the Maritimes. She is worth using in the Pick 5. (4) DONTMESSWITHMOLLY raced well here with Jamieson in the bike two starts back and she can take a share here.

Race 3: 2YO NW1 or $8,000 LT

(5) STONEBRIDGE PRAISE came close vs. better horses last time now he gets Macdonald in the bike. It should be graduation night. (2) HOUSTON SEELSTER took a long time to make front last time now he gets post relief. He should be the main threat to the choice. (9) PIER HO EMERALD had an okay debut race, but she draws worst now. A small share is likely for her. (1) RESOLVED will likely sit a trip and take a share in this spot.

Race 4: F&M 5YO and younger NW3 or $88,500 LT - Pick 4

(2) FANCY LETTERING comes in off a 1:51 2/5 win vs. Grassroots horses and she gets the call to repeat here in what should be a good spot for her. (5) BLINDED BY DELIGHT raced tough against some good mares last time and she should be the main danger. (1) ONLYTHEGOODDIYOUNG exploded in the lane to take a new life’s mark last time and she can be an Exacta factor right back here. (4) MAKE OUT WITH ME finished 2nd to the choice and she should be in the exotics mix again.

Race 5: F&M 5YO and younger NW2 or $30,000 LT AE: 3YO OPT CLM $40,000

(1) SWIFT TALKER just took a new life’s mark winning at this level and she has a good chance to double up vs. these. (7) NICE BUNS takes a big drop from the Grand Circuit, and she is the obvious one to fear here; using. (4) LANESIDE INCONTROL smoked maidens twice, but I don’t see her getting the same uncontested trip on the engine this time; using underneath. (10) TEA PARTY HANOVER would be rated higher if she drew better. From out there, I’ll use her underneath.

Race 6: 5YO and younger NW4 or $50,000 LT - Pick 5

(9) FLAG PARTY shipped north razor sharp, taking a win and a 2nd in two starts and he looks good in this spot; top call. (10) MCPLEASANT is in easier here and he has the speed to overcome the widest post if the intent is there; using. (2) STONEBRIDGE THRILL took a lifetime mark of 1:49 4/5 only two starts back and he will contend here if he stays flat tonight. (5) TELLIT RUSS TELLIT comes in off a narrow loss in fast time, but this is a tougher assignment; small share predicted.

Race 7: F&M NW $14,000 L5 or $21,750 L8 AE: OPT CLM $70,000 AE: NW $145,000 LT

(2) CAVIAR N CRACKERS takes a big drop to a spot where her potent late kick should be effective, and she gets top billing vs. these. (7) GLENBORO just blew up the tote board from a worse post and she is capable of doubling up when she is sharp and on her game; using. (5) HOW MUCH is a fast sophomore that will likely flash speed and stick around for a slice. (3) SHES GOT IT ALL will likely sit a trip and take a small slice in this spot.

Race 8: F&M NW2 or $30,000 - Pick 5

(4) ITDONTMATTERTOME is right there every week when she stays flat, and she fits well vs. these; top call. (5) BILLIE JEAN QUEEN was 3rd to the choice from post 10 now she draws much better. She could turn the tables here with the right trip; using. (6) EXCITING MIA was 3rd to the top two last time and she can take another slice here. (9) SHETROTSALOT finished 2nd to the choice last time but the wide draw likely limits her to a small share here.

Race 9: FILLIES & MARES PREFERRED Pick 4

(6) TELLS ON A ROLL returns quicker her and she will likely get put into the race this time; call to upset. (4) DABARNDAWGSWATCHIN is the hot mare right now and she is razor-sharp; using. (5) PROHIBITION LEGAL faced the best pacing mare on the planet in her last two starts. She is an obvious contender here. (7) SILVER LABEL is another that returns quicker and she is capable, but as the morning line choice I will try to beat her in this spot.

Race 10: HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS

This should be the spot for (3) KAMERAN HANOVER to take his first win of the season and I expect Christoforou to give him an aggressive steer in this cushy spot. (5) MY HOLY MOLEY shoots for the threepeat, and he will likely be the main threat to the choice coming off a nice closing win. (6) JAY RICHARD NYCE raced well from the widest post in his local debut now he draws best. He should be part of the exotics this time. (2) KATKIN MORGAN should get a decent trip and land a small share in this spot.

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Race 11: F&M NW $8,000 L5 AE: OPT CLM $50,000 AE: Starters of a purse of $11,000 last start

(4) POWDER PLAY got a tightening start in now she drops, and she should get put into this race facing easier; top call. (3) GIAS SURREAL gets into this race because she raced for a purse of $11K last time and she won in the top class at Flamboro. She is the obvious threat. (9) SPORTS DUCHESS steps up off a lifetime best score but she is capable, and she has the speed to overcome the wide draw; using. (7) CHEESY SMILE is another dropper that should improve tonight but I prefer to use her underneath here.

Race 12: F&M NW $18,000 in 2024 (Min. 10 starts) AE: N/A $1,500 P/S in 2024 (Min. 10 starts)

(5) SILENT CROSSING fits well here and she performs best with Macdonald in the bike. She gets the nod with that teamster returning here; top call. (2) BETTER BE DONNA N is hot and cold, but she looked good winning her last start and she is another that seems to fit well here; using. (10) NO MONEY HONEY is capable vs. these but she draws worst, and she is likely limited to a small share. (8) TWIN B TIPSTER comes off a strong effort, but she draws poorly; using underneath. (9) GIMMIE A CORONA will close from the back, and she can take a check here.