Woodbine Harness: Thursday 3/16 Analysis
Best Bet: OUTLAW GUNPOWDER (9th)
Spot Play: OK JEWEL (10th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,6,8/2,5,7/3,5,7/6,7,8/1,7 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 6,7,8/1,7/1,3,6/6,7 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 6,7/2,3,8/5,8/1,4,8 = $36
MEET STATS: 161 - 625 / $999.80 BEST BETS: 26 - 58 / $94.00
SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 55 / $86.20
Race 1
(8) WHISTYS PARADISE drops into a claimer here off a break and that's where she fits best. She will likely be last early, but she may just be too good for these and might pass them all anyway. (5) GIA DIAMOND comes off a sharp win at London; using. (6) ALEXAS HOPE fits well in this class. She can contend from close range here. (4) TOTAL KNOCKOUT wasn't far back at a huge price last week. She can take a slice here, too.
Race 2
(2) AMERICAN SARA gamely held off one that came back to win her next start. She can double up vs. these. (5) STONEBRIDGE HONEY - a $48K Forest City sale buy - is a half-sister to solid local performer Vegas Rocks. She looks ready to contend at first asking. (7) OHELLO BLUE CHIP hinted at having some talent last season. Perhaps she will show something here in her sophomore debut. (4) ROSELILY has finished well in both starts, but it's hard to bet her driver with any confidence on this circuit.
Race 3
(3) FORTE got a clean line last week so it's reasonable to expect Henriksen to take a more aggressive approach now; slight nod. (7) BUSTINGATTHESEAMS had a useful debut, now she gets off the tricky inside post. She, too, should show more here. (5) DOBEE took a ridiculous amount of action last week then closed for 2nd. She is a contender here, probably at a better price this time. (8) ROAD LIGHT continues to take action every week and come up short. I will play her underneath again.
Race 4
(7) UNDRAFTED got no breathers on the lead last time and he paid for it late in the mile. A better trip and better result is expected here. (8) GILLYS BOY is the one that dueled the choice - and himself - into defeat. An easier trip makes him a contender at a price. (6) BETTOR JIN is a half-brother to four siblings that have all earned more than $150K each, including 1:49 pacer Jins Shark. He is worth a look here in his debut. (9) LAWRENCETOWN BEACH is a full brother to 1:47 3/5 Open pacer Melmerby Beach, and is worth watching for a future race starting from the outermost post, although the tote board could provide some clues about his chances here.
Race 5
(1) WORK THAT MAGIC was a solid 2nd last time and she should be able to get out close to the lead here then make a move to the front on the backside; top call. (7) WESLYNN DANCER went a big uncovered trip to win last week. She will be dangerous here right back if she stays flat. (5) FRENCH BASTILLE figures for a smaller share as is typical with him. (8) WILLIE WONKA raced well enough in his seasonal debut to make him a contender here.
Race 6
(3) OLIVIAS WAY goes for Allard and Roy here off the claim and they continue to win at a torrid pace. (1) CASE DISMISSED also goes for strong connections off the claim and she should be the main threat. (6) PHEONICIAN GAL powered up late to win last week. She would be the beneficiary if the top two got hooked in a destructive duel. (5) HEX raced gamely last week despite a long trip. Keep her in mind for the exotics.
Race 7
(7) WEATHERLEY should be able to work out a better trip here getting off the inside post; top call. (6) KOULTONS ROCKET won last time he raced in this class on February 2nd; using. (3) COUNTER STRIKE was a sharp overlaid winner at Flamboro last time. He isn't out of this. (2) SIERRA MADRE closed a big gap last time. Look for him late here, especially if the pace is slowing.
Race 8
(8) ELDORADO OF GOLD S couldn't catch a strong winner last time but he should be solid here with that one gone; top call. (3) V FOR VICTORY is a Pick 4 must-use for me picking up driver Roy here. (2) GIRL DRAMA hinted at a return to form last week. She could take this if she is within striking range at the 3/4 pole. (5) TIME WARP figures to close for a slice here.
Race 9
(8) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER took a new life's mark last week when claimed. He can double up here. (5) CURATOR has shown improvement after being off form several months. He could surprise here. (1) PRINCE ADAM adds Lasix and he could parlay an inside following trip into a share here. (7) AARONS MATTJESTY figures to be coming late for a share again.
Race 10
(1) OK JEWEL steps up one class off a sharp closing effort last week and she could bring a good price here; upset special. (8) QUEEN IDEAL had a good comeback race and she is logical; using. (4) TEARFUL OF HAPPY figures, but has missed some time; mixed signals. (3) ITSALLABOUTTHEBASS can rally for a share starting from a better post here. (6) ON THE MINUTE MARK is a good one to use on the bottom of vertical bets.
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