Woodbine Harness: Thursday 2/12 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
EARLY $1 PICK 4 TICKET:
8 / 1,3,5 / 3,4,9 / 5,6,9 = $27
MEET STATS: 64 - 166 / $364.40 BEST BETS: 9 - 16 / $38.10
SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 15 / $54.20
Best Bet: BAD FOX (4th)
Spot Play: MOREMUNKYBUSINESS (7th)
Race 1
(6) MURS SON left for position then stayed in and rallied up the inside to just miss on a night where that wasn’t the best path in the lane. He continues to improve and should get a more aggressive steer from Henry here. (1) HARTNELL trotted a big third quarter and has shown good late speed in both his qualifier and comeback start. He should be right there with these. (5) TYMAL SIGNATURE set the pace to the lane and hung in there decently. He can get a good share here.
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Race 2
(9) CAPELO fired off a big mile first off the claim for the Fine barn; call right back. (5) JUST PLAIN LUCK couldn’t make much headway first up vs. the choice but can be a factor again with a better trip. (8) A AND C ARTIST could be more dangerous if Drury left hard and sat in Capelo’s pocket. That could happen, which would make him a win threat.
Race 3
We’ll call (4) WAKE N BAKE to upset this leg of the Miss Vera Bars series, anticipating some of the contenders to be passively driven and this one to get a more aggressive steer. (8) MAPLELEA came with an impressive rush last week but will likely have to swoop them all again to win, which is no easy task week after week. (2) NIPPY W HANOVER failed first-over as the big favorite last week, but may revert to her more effective front end style here.
Race 4
(8) BAD FOX went an unreal first-over trip first off the claim and was only beaten in the final stride by one he provided perfect cover for. Expect McNair to look for the front earlier in this mile. (7) ELECTRIFY had too many in front of him that got great trips to try to pass, but he wasn’t far away at the wire. He will get there soon. (1) SEA STAR continues to race well when aggressively handled; for another share here.
Race 5
(5) YOUR MY SECRET really improved in her past two starts and deserves top call in her first race at Woodbine. (1) WARAWEE QUALLY continues to hang in the lane and will once again be overbet to win based on her consistent streak of shares. (3) MIDNIGHT JET is out of a dam that produced three winners from as many starters including 1:49 2/5 performer Stolen Car. She has some upset potential.
Race 6
(9) KIWI PRES was called to win from the 10-hole last week and went right down the road at a good price. These are a bit tougher but he may be up to it. (4) JLS TIMES R GOOD couldn’t match Big Package twice in this class, but raced well first off the claim last week and is a threat here. (2) MAGIC MADNESS has hit his best stride and needs to be kept on pick 4 tickets.
Race 7
(9) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS showed good late speed first time over the track off a 24-day break in action. Call to upset these. (6) WILDCAT MAGIC got too far back early from the 10-hole but was motoring nicely at the end of her mile. She will be handled more aggressively here and is the one to beat. (5) B SANTANNAS LOVE went two big first up trips in a row getting nailed by the same very good winner both times. She would be extra dangerous with a covered trip.
Race 8
(6) STEALTH JETTA let an impressive winner get the jump on him in the third quarter last week, but these may be easier; top call. (2) JAYPORT ALL MUSCLE returned from a brief break with a big mile to finally break his maiden. The step up isn’t easy, obviously, but he may have found something. (8) SHOPSMAGICWAND was hung out a long way to make the top and hung in there well considering. She would be more dangerous if she were to clear quickly from the outset.
Race 9
(9) PINOT GRIGIO was an impressive debut winner, making an eye-catching final 1/4 move to vault past the leaders. A couple of these are a lot tougher, but she could be this good. (4) CAST NO SHADOW is the obvious danger off two impressive comeback wins. (7) FROSTY DELIGHT raced much better last week and may be coming into her best form finally.
Race 10
This looks like a race where 2014 ‘O Brien winner Christoforou will perfectly trip out (4) PLAY GROUND to chase down a group of winded leaders. It seems highly likely the second 1/2 will be much slower than the first. (5) T R LEXUS CAM comes in from Flamboro for trainer Stewart in top form, but her racing style conflicts with a few others. She should get a big piece regardless. (2) CALL ME MAYBE should be able to use her deep closing style to advantage here and come on late for a good share. (9) ONE BADLAND NIGHT was very obviously best last out and was raced that way down the backside while hustled to the front. It will be interesting to see what A-Mac does here from the outset. (7) COUNTRY DELIGHT has really turned things around in 2015, earning more money than she did last year in just 5 starts. She is a contender here.
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