Woodbine Harness: Thursday 11/5 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 8/3/2,5/1,3,9/ALL = $12
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,9/3,6/1,3,4/6,7,8,9 = $72
LATE PICK 4: 6,7,8,9/1,3,7/4,6/2,10 = $48
MEET STATS: 58 - 209 / 264.80 BEST BETS: 9 - 18 / $33.10
SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 19 / 38.00
Best Bet: CONTINUAL HANOVER (1st)
Spot Play: NEEDLECREST (10th)
Race 1
(8) CONTINUAL HANOVER returns from a break and takes a major class drop here. He'll be tough to beat as a big chalk. (4) B FAST EDDIE closed rapidly to break his maiden last time and is improving quickly. (1) DAYLIGHT RUSH continues to race well enough to contend and get a check; more of the same expected here.
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Race 2
(3) MATZA MAN was a decisive winner last week and these don't look any tougher; call to repeat. (2) STORMONT VICEROY showed improvement last time and should get a good trip here following the choice. (6) CHESTNUT SCHOFIELD raced first-up against the choice but was easily repelled. He can share here, though.
Race 3
(2) JLS BAD MOON RISIN closed well last time despite a slow early pace now moves into the leading trainer's barn and should be tough here. (5) PUKKA also switches barns here and figures highly on form and class anyway. (6) ULYSSES BI adds Lasix after trotting a good qualifying mile. He can share here.
Race 4
(3) DOCTOR ROYAL and (9) STARCASTIC both shipped in from the Maritimes last week and disappointed as favorites. Both should improve markedly here; nod to the former based on post position and connections. (1) MAJOR DAN figures to get a good following trip here and could get the job done if he finds room early enough in the lane.
Race 5
(3) P L ICABOD was sharp last week but just went too fast early and got picked off. He can win this with more careful rating. (6) ARNIE chased a strong winner that has since repeated vs. better; using. (2) HALO EFFECT ships in and gets a driver change to the top reinsman. He should get a piece of this.
Race 6
(1) AZUL POOL raced well from the 10-hole last week despite missing a month. He should be even better back in a week from a better post. (4) SECRECY recovered well from a break last time and figures highly here if he can stay flat. (3) JACK RACKHAM was stymied by an extremely slow first 1/2 last week. His race two back is a better indication of what he can do.
Race 7
(7) ST LADS PIXIE was a good winner in this class two back then stayed sharp with a good first-up effort vs. better at Flamboro; top call. (8) JENNA CASIMIR has excelled in this class for the past month and should contend here again. (9) GOOD LUCK KATHY has improved her speed recently and fits this class shipping in from Flamboro.
Race 8
(3) NOBLE POWER rarely wins but got close last time and faces a field that he can compete with here. (7) BLENHEIM comes off a sharp maiden win then a vet scratch (sick). He'll be tough if he repeats that last mile. (1) KADDY comes in off a break for McIntosh who can improve one quickly. Her qualifying win may indicate a much better effort is forthcoming here.
Race 9
(6) WARRAWEE HAP made a big move to the front down the backside last week but went a bit too fast and was nailed late. She can build on that effort and take this with a more patient drive. (4) PASSIONATE BEAUTY showed good early and late speed while finishing ahead of the choice and is the one to beat. (2) LDL GEM showed a bit of life late in her mile last week and is one to consider at long odds for exotics.
Race 10
(10) NEEDLECREST won in this class two back then faced better. He can take these if close enough at the 3/4 and should offer a good price from out there. (2) ARAZI set a strong pace then tired late in his first start for Moreau. Dropping back into claimers makes him a player here. (5) KILLER THRILLER ships in from Ottawa with good form and a good record. He should share. (9) CHARLOTTES COLONY rode an easy trip to victory last time but will be hard pressed to repeat from the 9-hole with more speed signed on. (3) MARIGOLD BLOOM figures for a small share which is typical for her.
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