Woodbine Harness: Thursday 11/16 Analysis
Best Bet: PLAY IT AGAIN SAM (2nd)
Spot Play: REBELLIOUS (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4/5/2,5,6/1,4,8/2,3,4,6 = $7.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,8/2,3,4,6/3,5/1,6 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 1,6/1,6,7/1,4/4,7 = $24
MEET STATS: 43 - 160 / $268.20 BEST BETS: 9 - 15 / $39.60
SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 16 / $54.90
Race 1
(4) BRENDA AND EDDIE couldn't catch a rival that slipped off the pylons in front of him in the stretch last time, but that was a good effort and he looks best here. (1) COUSIN RICKARD should be close early which gives him a chance in this suspect group. (8) MORE THAN TALK frequently finishes on the edges. He can share here. (7) DREAM FOR LINDY comes in off a good qualifier and she could hit the ticket here if she can stay trotting.
Race 2
(5) PLAY IT AGAIN SAM can double up here going for Moreau off the claim. (6) BIG PETES STYLE has done his best work in claimers. He could wake up with the class drop here. (1) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER should be in the thick of things for a smaller share, at least. (4) HAYDENS LITTLE MAN is another who figures to land in one of the bottom exotics rungs.
Race 3
(2) ZLATAN is an infrequent winner, but he has been facing better than these recently and his good early speed can put him in position here; slight nod. (5) TYMAL DIAMOND raced well two starts back and she should offer some value here coming off a break in stride. (6) BRED FOR GREATNESS is worth including making his second start back following a break due to sickness. (4) STRITCH can pass some of these late to take a small slice.
Race 4
(4) IMCOOLERONLINE drops back to the same class he won in two starts back. Expect a more aggressive drive here. (8) FOOL WITH JOE ships west with some good form and he picks up the circuit's top driver; using. (1) MANHATTAN EXPRESS also comes in from the Maritimes with some solid form and this $22K Lexington buy goes for a trainer that sends them ready. Toss him on Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. (3) JDCYRIL had a decent race over the track. He can improve here and hit the ticket.
Race 5
(6) REBELLIOUS got started up way too late last time to threaten the winner. An earlier move here gets the job done vs. these. (2) ARTOFFICIAL FLAVOR should get put into action early this time coming back much quicker; using. (3) TWOMACSONESHADOW is a contender here coming off a sharp win at London; using. (4) ZAMPARA raced well for Roy last time and he sticks here; use underneath.
Race 6
(3) GRAVITATOR was beaten by a good one in her first start in this class last week. She can bounce back vs. these; top call. (5) CHARMBO CHROME drops a level and he should be prominent racing on or near the lead throughout here. (4) PARKHILL NONSTOP is going good for Hudon now and he steps up but can't be ignored in his current sharp form. (1) WESMONT can take a small share off an inside following trip here.
Race 7
(6) ST LADS CAPTAIN looks best here coming off a sharp effort. (1) TREMENDOUS PLAY is another who is sharp and he could take this with a decent trip. (6) ABBEYDORNEY comes off an improved effort at Flamboro. He could share here if he leaves hard. (2) DIXIE FLYER gets a much better post for his second start on this circuit and he could hit the ticket at a price here.
Race 8
(6) EVAN HANOVER had several good races at Harrah's Philly and he picks up Henry for this Woodbine debut. I'll give him a slight nod in a dash with seemingly few contenders. (1) CARSON HILL gets away from Gravitator here which could move him up; using. (7) MR HOUDINI gets off post 10 which makes him a contender in his current sharp state. (2) QUADRANGLE could easily be chalk here, but coming off a 37-day break I will play against him in this spot.
Race 9
(1) HIGHPOINT CHIP is worth a play on the Moreau/Roy angle here in a race full of horses with no form. (4) SOUTHWIND MASIMO drops out of some quick miles and he is likely the one to beat here. (2) SURPRISE HANOVER is capable racing at this level and he could be an overlay here. (3) SPIDER MAN HANOVER figures to take a smaller share here.
Race 10
(4) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ will be tough to overhaul if he comes up with anything close to his last effort, but he will likely be odds-on here. (7) INTENDED STYLE looks like the logical option to the choice on the class drop. (9) AMBLE OVER HANOVER had a rough trip last time. He can make the Tri here with a slightly better journey. (8) JEFFERSON TARE was a distant 2nd to the choice last time; use underneath. (6) LIVELY FREDDIE can sneak onto the ticket off a following trip.
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