Woodbine Harness: Thursday 10/19 Analysis
Best Bet: PEARL BLUE CHIP (1st)
Spot Play: SIMPLE KINDA MAN (4th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5/3,4,5,8/1,3,8/1,5,6/2,3,4 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,5,6/2,3,4/1/1,6,9 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 1,6,9/1,7,8/4,7/4,5 = $36
FINAL MOHAWK MEET STATS: 397 - 1230 / $2,201.70 BEST BETS: 55 - 118 / $195.60
SPOT PLAYS: 37 - 118 / $222.30
Race 1
(5) PEARL BLUE CHIP came from an impossible spot in her debut and she was flying late. She should get put into action earlier here; top call. (9) QUITE A SIGHT raced well in her Mohawk debut and she looks like the main threat here. (6) RENDEZVOUS HANOVER is worth a look for the exotics picking up leading driver McNair here. (7) ZARCONIS SEELSTER brings some good form with her from Ottawa and she can pass a few of these to make the Super here.
Race 2
(8) HUDSONS YA YA is capable of beating these if she blasts off early. I'll take a swing hoping for aggression. (4) MR HOUDINI finished quickly to break his maiden with McNair driving for the first time. He's hard to leave out here. (5) LADY GREY's good early speed should play well at Woodbine; using. (3) WESMONT was close last time he raced in this class and he could better this rating.
Race 3
(3) MR SHANAHAN is one of few in here with any form and his style should help at this track. He gets the nod by default. (1) BURLINGTON should go much better from the inside here; using. (8) ALERT HANOVER inherited a win last time when two leaders that were well in front broke in the lane but he can contend here. (4) ICE HOCKEY HANOVER figures to close late for a smaller share.
Race 4
(1) SIMPLE KINDA MAN couldn't go with the winner in the third 1/4 last time, but that one returned to win the Superfinal last Saturday. He has a big shot here. (5) TOPVILLE CHROME is in solid form and he should be coming late again. (6) LEVIS DAY has improved sharply in the last month and he should be heard from here. (2) NORTHERN REBEL raced tough last time, but he has missed more than a month now; mixed signals with this colt.
Race 5
(3) DOCS SAUSALITO won in a claiming handicap last time and even though this purse is higher, this might actually be an easier conditioned claiming field; top call. (2) JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL powered home in 27 1/5 to win in this class last time. She fits well here. (8) THATGIRLISONFIRE couldn't close into an accelerating late pace last time. She can hit the board here with a better trip. (4) EVERY TIME should be a factor from close range here.
Race 6
(1) ITS HALLRIGHT keeps flashing home quickly every week. She'll get a winning trip one of these weeks; maybe tonight is the night. (2) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKEY steps up, but he has clearly improved recently; using. (9) BRED FOR GREATNESS is a big speed threat here. Toss him on Pick 4 tickets. (4) DREAM MASSIVE has a race three back that would be good enough to take this if he could reproduce that effort.
Race 7
(1) BRACKLEY BEACH qualified well on October 10 and he makes his first start with driver Macdonell doing the training. I'll give him the nod in a wide-open race. (9) TREMENDOUS PLAY is 0 for 26, but he almost won last time he was in this class three starts back; using. (6) YOU SAID IT drops one level and adds Lasix. He should be better here. (7) YOUNG MAN MATT has solid form and he is another that can take this with a decent trip.
Race 8
(7) CASCADA made a great recovery after breaking last time and he was forced to re-qualify. He obviously has some ability and he can take these if he can stay flat. (1) DREAM FOR LINDY qualified well for his trainer and he will drive her here; using. (8) MISS JUBILEE HILL goes for a sharp outfit that can improve one quickly. I'll use her in the late Pick 4. (9) A DOOZY can close late for a smaller slice.
Race 9
(4) REBELLIOUS faces much easier here and he should bounce back with a better effort. (7) ZERO RATE has been in some fast miles in the Maritimes and he could fire a big one right away here. (6) D M OREILLY is in good form and he comes off a tough loss but he should be right there. (2) FREE PROOF blew up the tote last time, but he will need more speed to repeat here.
Race 10
(5) INTENDED STYLE won easily last week when dropped to this class; call to repeat. (4) CRAVEN THE BEACH drops and gets Christoforou back. Notice he almost won with this gelding two back; using. (6) PRINCE GIOVANNI might last a lot longer here with Henry driving; beware. (2) H P BLACK SHADOW is a good one to use underneath here. (10) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER can pass a few of these late and make the ticket.
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